What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! I hope everyone had an enjoyable Byron Nelson week, even if it didn’t seem to be the most profitable week. Billy Horschel jumped back into the winner’s circle, and if you paid attention to my Perfect Pivots from last week, you would have had Jason Day in plenty of lineups to potentially win some money!
On to the Dean and Deluca Invitational, held at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth Texas. Colonial has been the host of this event since 1946, so if you realllly want to dig into course history, you can, although the game has changed a bit since The War ended. Colonial is a 7,200 yard Par 70, with the traditional two Par 5s and four Par 3s arrangement. The course will force golfers to keep the big stick in the bag more often than not, lending itself more towards accurate golfers with strong approach games. I am treating this course as a second shot course, putting a lot of emphasis on Strokes Gained Approach, combined with Good Drive %, Par 4 scoring average, Birdie or Better % and Scrambling. If golfers are going to miss these smaller than average greens, they better be able to get up and down from all sorts of locations to stay in contention.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Sergio Garcia – $10.800
While everyone is going all in on Jon Rahm, I will be going overweight on the other Spaniard, Sergio Garcia. The Masters hangover was non-existent, proving many of us wrong. He has shown up in his last two events and would have been right near the top of the leaderboard last week if it weren’t for a poor Sunday outing. Regardless, Garcia is a perfect fit for Colonial, a ball strikers paradise. Sergio won this tournament all the way back in 2001 and his most recent outing here was in 2012 when he came T13. While Rahm will garner all of the attention and ownership this week, I will take the $1000 in savings and go with Garcia and his better recent form and course fit.
Jason Dufner – $9,000
Jason Dufner is a lock for me in cash this week. He is the most consistent golfer in the $9K range and provides the necessary savings you’ll need to fill out a solid cash lineup in a week full of landmines. In the past five years at Colonial, Dufner has finished in 2nd, twice and came T6 last year. This is a perfect course for his accuracy style of game and he shows it on a yearly basis. Dufner is crushing Par 4s this season, ranking 2nd in the field in Par 4 BoB%. Even though he struggles to win and putt on occasion, Dufner is still the safest pick on the board and should be an anchor for cash lineups this week.
Adam Hadwin – $8,400
Adam Hadwin hasn’t been nearly as hot as he was earlier this year before his first career win. But, he had a very impressive T30 finish at the PLAYERS a couple of weeks ago that suggests his game has not gone anywhere. Hadwin now returns to a course he has had success at the last two years, at a time when he was a much different (and worse) golfer. Hadwin came T5 in 2015 and T22 last year, which proves this course suits his game. He is known to be one of the best putters on tour, but he also ranks 12th in the field in SG APP and 14th in ball striking. Hadwin’s price makes him a great cash game play and if you are going against the grain and building balanced GPP lineups, Hadwin is a must play.
Nick Taylor – $7,300
I am hoping Nick Taylor can make it a Canadian affair this week at Colonial. He has been playing outstanding lately, with back to back top 10 finishes and four straight T22s. Taylor hits a ton of greens, ranking 20th in the field in Greens or Fringe in regulation and when he rarely misses the green, is one of the best scramblers in the field. I like that combination of excellent tee to green game and necessary scrambling ability, as it is a recipe we saw Jordan Spieth employ last year on his way to a win. Taylor is smoking hot right now and you have to ride this wave while it is still here. $7,300 is not a lot to pay to see if this hot streak keeps going.
Dean and Deluca Invitational Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Jordan Spieth – $12,000
Jon Rahm will be chalk. There is no question about it. People already love to roster him, add the fact that Jordan Spieth is priced at $12K and has missed cut straight cuts into the mix and Rahm’s ownership is going to be insane. There are very few elite options this week, so pivoting to Spieth while others avoid him is definitely the tournament play. Spieth won this event last year, came second the year before that and has four straight top 15s. His ownership is going to be extremely low in a field where he is clearly one of the favorites to win.
Scott Piercy – $7,000
I am a sucker for Scott Piercy and I am not ashamed to admit it. I have been backing Piercy for way too long, and the week I finally get off of him he finishes T20 at the Byron Nelson. Piercy led the field last week in SG APP and was 4th in SG T2G. If he can just figure out the putter a bit, he will be in contention on Sunday. Despite his recent results, Piercy only has six tags on FanShareSports.com, less than golfers priced around him like Kevin Tway, Will McGirt, Nick Taylor and Wesley Bryan. I am back in on my boy Piercy in a spot I think he has a chance to win.
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Webb Simpson – $9,100
The Dean and Deluca does not bring out the strongest of fields, we know that. But to see Webb Simpson priced at $9,100 is tough to swallow. He is easily one of the most inconsistent golfers on tour because his flat stick can go beyond cold. There are so many better options priced below Webb that are either showing more consistent form or are a better fit for the course. I need Webb’s price to drop about $2,000 before I consider rostering him.
Brian Harman – $8,500
We can thank Brian Harman for creating this little run of out of nowhere winners on the PGA Tour when he picked up the Wells Fargo title. DraftKings seems to have factored in that recent win in a big way as he carries a hefty $8,500 tag with him this week. Harman does not fit this course statistically at all, ranking 101st in the field in SG APP and 71st in Good Drive %. Even though he has three straight top 30 finishes at this event, Harman would have to exceed that result to return value, something his 2017 stats suggest won’t happen.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Brandt Snedeker – $8,100
Okay, maybe you didn’t get burned that much last week if you rostered Snedeker because he wasn’t highly owned. But maybe you thought you were getting a sneaky GPP play at low ownership and you ended up being very disappointed. NOW is the perfect time to jump back in on Brandt Snedeker. He missed the PLAYERS with a wrist/hand injury, but played last week and has entered the Dean and Deluca so the injury has to be behind him. The rust has been shaken off, he has played well at this event in two years coming second in 2015, and if the wind picks up, Brandt is an elite wind player. Sneds is my sneaky pick to win this week and catch a lot of people by surprise.
J.T. Poston – $7,200
A week might not be long enough to heal the burn wounds that J.T. Poston left me with, and I am sure many others. Poston blew up in style last week, coming near dead last, territory he has not yet experienced on tour. Poston has showed us he is a consistent golfer, who shows up week in and week out. I am not worried about a sudden collapse in his game that will leave him missing multiple cuts in a row. His short, plotting style of golf will allow him to hit a ton of greens in regulation this week, something he already excels at.
“The Price is Wrong, Bob!”
The pricing on these golfers doesn’t seem right.
Kevin Tway – $7,100
Tway has been on fire the past few weeks, reeling off three straight top 20 finishes including two top 5s. He gained strokes on the field in all categories last week at the Byron Nelson. This week his betting odds are at 60/1, which suggest his DraftKings price should be closer to the mid to high $7K range. Tway currently shares the same odds as Chris Kirk, who is priced $1,100 more. That is an absolute steal for a golfer playing as well as Tway.
Bill Haas – $6,900
I have never been a Bill Haas guy, but $6,900 is a joke. He is clearly one of the better golfers in the field even with his three straight missed cuts. Haas has had success at this course in the past, making the cut each of his past three trips. Haas doesn’t provide a ton of winning upside, but at $6,900 you certainly don’t need that. I won’t be shocked if he rebounds nicely at Colonial and finds himself inside the top 10 on Sunday.
Thanks for reading the Dean and Deluca Invitational preview article! You can follow me on Twitter @EPattersonFS for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody and enjoy the best week in golf!