What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! Dufner did it! We had him highlighted last week in our “So you got burned” section and he came through exactly how we hoped. Who knows, maybe this week’s winner is listed in the exact same section…see below.
With the U.S. Open just a week away, we have ourselves with a chance to fine tune our process at the FedEx St. Jude Classic. This is not a strong field at all, which will make next week that much sweeter. However, there are some top names in the field that will be looking to get into the winner’s circle before next week’s main event. The St. Jude classic will be held at TPC Southwind, which is a 7,200 yard Par 70. All sorts of golfers have succeeded here in the past, so we cannot just highlight one skill set to focus on. There is a ton of water on this course so being accurate both off the tee and approach will be critical. Par 4 scoring will play a major role in determining the winner, and the majority of the approach shots this week will come from the 150-175 yard range. The key stats I am looking at this week are Strokes Gained Approach, Good Drive %, Par 4 Scoring Avg, Prox. 150-175 and Birdie or Better %.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Rickie Fowler – $12,000
Boring I know, but there might not be another golfer in the planet with better form that Rickie Fowler right now. He showed his game is there last week at the Memorial, so why wouldn’t he come out this week and collect a winner check before heading to Erin Hills. The ownership at the top is likely going to be spread out, so going overweight on Fowler won’t be difficult. He is the clear cut favourite but will not draw the ownership someone in his position typically will.
Francesco Molinari – $10,500
Molinari is the statistical play this week. He ranks incredible well across all of the key stats. He has the best approach game in the field, has the fifth best GD% and is the best Par 4 scorer in the field. He came second a couple weeks ago at the BMW Championship in England. He has now climbed all the way to 16th in the world, which shocked me when I saw it. He is the absolute lock of all locks in cash games and I will also be owning a large clip of him in GPPs.
Kyle Stanley – $8,400
Kyle Stanley’s time to win is coming, sooner rather than later. He bounced back nicely last week after a missed cut at the Dean and Deluca. He surrounded that missed cut with two top six finishes in two very strong field events, the PLAYERS and the Memorial. Stanley needs four rounds where his tee to green game remains elite and his putter is just average to have a legit shot at winning an event. The St. Jude Classic seems like the perfect type of event for a golfer like Stanley to get the monkey off his back. His betting odds opened at 40/1, and I have seen them drop as low as 25/1. There are people across the betting and DFS world who can feel his winning approaching.
Danny Lee – $7,200
A $7,200 Danny Lee in this field doesn’t make a ton of sense. He has been playing very well lately with two top sixes in his past three events. Lee has the 17th best approach game in the field, and is just outside the top 20 in terms of BoB%. His betting odds suggest he should be priced around the mid $8K range, but we should all be glad to take the $1,000 discount and go shopping elsewhere.
J.B. Holmes – $6,800
J.B. Holmes price this week is the biggest mistake on the board. For quick reference, he is priced $500 MORE next week for the U.S. Open, which has a slightly better field….How is Holmes priced this low?? Sure he missed his last two cuts but come on, he clearly one of the top 10-15 golfers in this field and his price tag next week proves it. Bubba Watson was in this situation last week, where we all knew the caliber of golfer, but were wary because of his recent form. J.B. could easily flick a switch and pour it on. I do not want to miss out in case that happens.
St. Jude Classic Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Adam Scott – $11,000
Of the golfers priced in the five digit range, Adam Scott has the least amount of tags on FanShareSports.com, giving me a strong feeling he will be the lowest owned in that range. Scott now becomes a perfect tournament option, as rostering the lowest owned top tier golfer creates a profitable situation. We all know what Scott is capable of and his ability to win any golf tournament he enters. I think he is looking to get himself in U.S. Open shape and an win here would do just that.
Ryan Palmer – $9,000
Ryan Palmer is going completely ignored this week. He only has 10 tags on FanShareSports.com, miles behind everyone else priced above $9K. Palmer has not yet qualified for the U.S. Open, although he is one of the first alternates. I think he will be extra motivated to contend this week and give himself a chance to gain entry into next week’s main event. Palmer will easily come in under 10% owned and in a field that could get chaotic with withdraws and missed cuts, rostering Palmer could create a ton of leverage.
Kevin Chappell – $8,800
Kevin Chappell is drawing some attention this week, but not nearly enough in my eyes. He has the 13th most tags on FanShareSports.com, but is well behind most of the golfers priced above him. This leaves me to believe that popular lineup construction this week will consist of jamming two guys in above $9k and then jumping down to the $7K range. Chappell could easily fall between the cracks as he is competing with this week’s chalk, Kyle Stanley at $8,400. If Chappell hadn’t won a few weeks back at the Valero Texas Open, I honestly believe this would be the event we all would be saying was his to win.
William McGirt – $7,300
Why is nobody talking about McGirt?! At the time I am writing this, he doesn’t have a single mention on @FanShareSports. His price alone makes him an amazing value play and stands out as one of the most underpriced golfers this week. He has the third best GD% and 10th best Par 4 scoring average in the field. There is no way McGirt should be flying under this week in a weak field event.
Xander Schauffele – $7,200
The mid to low $7K range is loaded with popular plays. Uihlein, Lee, Tway and Varner will allow garner a ton of ownership, even though they are volatile players and have massive blow up potential. Xander Schauffele is no different, but at least at a much lower ownership he will be worth the risk. Xander has been playing a lot better lately, making three of his last five cuts. He is an excellent Par 4 scorer and makes a ton of birdies. This week is the perfect week to fade the chalk, because the chalk this week are typical long shots on a regular week.
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Brian Gay – $8,200
I am having a tough time figuring out how someone can pay $8,200 for Brian Gay, when there are so many better options for both cash and GPP priced lower. Gay game 6th here last year and has been making some cuts lately, but $8,200 is steep. He has a very average strokes gained APP stat, doesn’t make a ton of birdies and has been relying heavily on his putter this season. There is too much risk and barely any upside with Gay this week.
Stewart Cink – $8,000
I have been a big Stewart Cink guy in the past, but that was when he was priced in the mid to high $6K range and presented solid cut making ability. Now Cink is priced at $8,000, making it very difficult to build a solid looking cash lineup, especially when he use to be your sub $7K punt. I would much rather pay up for a golfer with more upside and the same cut making ability as Cink, and find value elsewhere this week.
Daniel Summerhays – $7,800
We all got to see Daniel Summerhays battle it out last week, and because of that, I think there will be more people who jump on Summerhays than there should be. Last week was a flash in the pan. Summerhays’ stats are very underwhelming and show no signs of producing back to back strong finishes. He has a terrible approach game and is not scoring well on Par 4s. Do not buy high on Summerhays.
Matt Jones – $7,500
There is no real reason for me to pick on Matt Jones this week, but I figured I’d throw him in here to say there is no chance in hell he ends up on a roster this week. Some people may be buying into Jones’ course history, but his recent form and stats say that we should be looking elsewhere. If Jones was priced at $6,500, he would still make this list.
Scott Stallings – $7,400
Scott Stallings has been gaining some traction this week because he has Tennessee ties and came second here all the way back in 2013. Stop it. Stallings has one top 20 finish in his last five starts, which also include three missed cuts. He is over priced and if there is any chance he attracts 5% ownership, he makes for an automatic fade. There are so many options in the low $7K range – don’t waste a spot on Stallings.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello – $8,600
Cabrera-Bello drew us all in last week with his charming smile and low price tag. He fooled us. What a tease. As a DFS community we seem to be enamored by RCB, and gravitate towards him when we think he is underpriced or a good fit for the course. That is what happened last week and we got torched. RCB was brutal. But, now people will be afraid and his price jumped up almost $2,000. He is still one of the ten best golfers in this field, showed a flash of form at the PLAYERS and will be over looked.
Scott Piercy – $8,500
Every week I wonder what will Scott Piercy do. Last week I was dead wrong and it cost be big time. Now, at an inflated priced and barely any mentions on @FanShareSports, I am back in on Piercy. Help me, I need a Piercy intervention. He has turned his approach game around in the last few events and has no issue scoring on Par 4s. His ownership will likely fall under 5%, especially with Kyle Stanley priced just below him.
Kevin Tway – $7,400
Tway had been lights out in the last month and a half. It seemed as though he never finished outside the top 20 and we were all waiting for him to finally contend last week. Instead, he missed the cut and left us with a lot of dead lineups. At $7,400, Tway could easily bounce back and regain that form he had just two weeks ago, a la Jason Dufner. Dufner’s win last week won’t help our cause if we wanted to keep Tway of people’s radar. We learned our lesson last week with Dufner. Don’t fade Tway and get burned back to back weeks.
Jonathan Randolph – $6,500
This is definitely a long shot, but it wasn’t too long ago when I was hearing and reading others talk up Jonathan Randolph. Now, he only has two tags on @FanShareSports, despite his great run of golf before his missed cut at the Byron Nelson. This is a very similar situation to Tway’s except no one is paying attention to Randolph. I highly recommend taking a few GPP shots in the event he bounce back and ends up in the top 10.
Thanks for reading the FedEx St.Jude Classic preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody and enjoy the best week in golf!