by Brad Messersmith | Jun 21, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. The first standout this week comes in the form of Lucas Glover who’s odds are roughly 100:1 to win despite the fact that Glover will cost you only $6,600 towards the salary cap to get him in your lineups. Particularly in a marginal field like the one this week, Glover’s price certainly does stand out, and on a course with much slower greens, Glover’s putting weakness may be masked enough to make him a great GPP play. The other standout is probably one that you’ve heard mentioned elsewhere in Charley Hoffman. It seems fairly obvious that Hoffman is under priced this week, which is in agreement with the charts. Hoffman has made eight of his last nine cuts and is trending upward with his recent eighth place finish at the U.S. Open.
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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. If you’ve been following this article series regularly you will have become used to the idea that the highest priced golfers are typically going to be the highest owned golfers on the slate with a few exceptions. This week just might be an exception with Justin Thomas and Paul Casey offering massive discounts in comparison to several golfers who just recently missed the cut in the $11,000 and up range. While some of this depends on whether the general public decides they aren’t worried about Jason Day and Rory McIlroy’s recent missed cuts at the U.S. Open. The only other really interesting standout on the ownership chart this week is Jim Furyk who is currently projected at under 5% ownership, in part because of his massive price jump between last week and this week. Jim Furyk has played poorly all year, however finished twenty-third last week at the U.S. Open and managed to shoot professional golf’s first ever 58 at this course last year which probably has led to the price jump. I will be taking a wait and see approach with Jim Furyk, but if you think he continues to trend upward, now would be the time to nab him at super low ownership.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. This week’s OWGR chart has some very interesting standouts this week, one of whom is Wesley Bryan who’s official world golf ranking is 40th in the world despite his sub $7k price tag. Wes Bryan has been particularly bad over the course of the last month following his first win on tour having missed three of his last four cuts and finishing no better than 45th place. At some point I expect Wes Bryan to bounce back, and why not this week on a course that plays to Bryan’s strengths? Wes Bryan has the game to win an event like this and is going to be my super sleeper to win here
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Travelers Championship Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by Brad Messersmith | Jun 13, 2017 | DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week we find one of the most overlooked golfers on the week showing up (as he should) on the Odds vs. Salary charts. Billy Horschel is only four weeks removed from winning the AT&T Byron Nelson and is coming off of a fourth place finish at the St. Jude last week. What’s not to like about a guy who is near the minimum price, has never finished worse than 32nd at a U.S. Open, and has nearly 80:1 odds to win? The next guy who is as much a standout as Horschel was based on his odds and salary, is Martin Kaymer. Contrary to Horschel though, Kaymer is coming in playing one of the worst stretches of golf we’ve seen from this international superstar. With roughly 60:1 odds to win and a $7,000 price tag, Kaymer’s poor recent form may be worth overlooking in order to take a flyer on a golfer who Vegas believes has some upside in GPPs.
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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. As you may have already been able to tell, the ownership numbers for this chart were adjusted once already since the salaries are out, and the result is fairly polarizing. You will find golfers like Rory McIlroy who just isn’t being talked up at all (perhaps as a result of having played only twice in the last twelve weeks). On the contrary we have Rickie Fowler and Kevin Kisner who are both rapidly becoming the chalk this week. Kisner’s all around game is something I’m seeking at a course like Erin Hills so I’m willing to eat the chalk there, however Rickie Fowler leaves me a bit more hesitant. As a golfer who has certainly had his fair share of success this year, Fowler has also found trouble regularly which is most likely going to lead to some punishing results this week. As for low ownership, Henrik Stenson is a pretty safe bet as the lowest owned golfer at the top end of the slate. He comes in with some decent performances overseas recently, however I still find myself leaning towards fading Stenson. Henrik over the course of the last season has had some struggled on seriously difficult courses, and Erin Hills certainly fits the mold.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. I suspect before reading this article you’ve probably taken the time to browse the list of golfers and salaries at this point, and I equally suspect you’ve glanced past the first golfer I’ll mention here without a second thought. Danny Willett is currently ranked 28th in the OWGR and has nearly 250:1 odds to win the tournament. It’s been a long downhill slippery slope of bad results for Danny Willett as of late including a WD from The Players Championship recently. I won’t advocate taking a second mortgage to put it all on Willett to win this week, however I think a golfer of this caliber is certainly worth a second look given his price. The other golfer is one that you will have heard me mention (probably hundreds of times) before if you’ve been following my work closely. Somehow nobody seems to have adjusted to the fact that Francesco Molinari has risen all the way to 16th ranked in the OWGR, and yet he is only $7,000 in price. Why people have not begun to join me in piling ‘$Molinari’ (pronounced Money Molinari) into everything just yes has continued to astound me. He’s making cuts with some serious consistency and is showing upside with that consistency we’re not used to seeing out of Molinari on American soil, yet his price continues to stay consistently low, and I continue to reap the benefits….and you should too.
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U.S. Open Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by Brad Messersmith | May 30, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week the unexpected value shows itself in a bigger way than usual. With The Memorial being a pretty popular event among the games elite, we find value in names like Si-Woo Kim who had a very rocky start to his 2017 season while struggling with injury. This is obviously not taking into consideration the fact that he won the Players less than four weeks ago which seems to have some play in his nearly 100:1 odds to win the tournament despite the near minimum salary price tag that comes with Si-Woo. The other value that seems to stand out when it comes to the odds is Kevin Tway who also comes in at near minimum price at $6,500 but has been playing some of the best golf in the field over the last six weeks with two top five finishes and a twentieth place finish as his worst in that span.
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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. There isn’t much to go off of this early in the week, however I suspect this will be a week where there is a cluster effect particularly in the lower salary ranges. With some of the value that’s out there, I think there is some potential for 3-4 names in the lower salary range to become extremely popular while other names could go relatively under the radar. One of those under the radar types this week could be Pat Perez who has been one of my favorite golfers throughout 2017. He consistently performs well on almost all course types, and his price never seems to go up despite the upside and consistency he offers. After his recent missed cut (one of the few he’s had all year) I suspect he will fall off of most peoples radars. Another golfer in a very similar situation is Jason Dufner, who is well publicized to have worked heavily on his putting game all off season and it seems to be showing. It seems with his added putting skill the regular 45th place finishes of 2016 are starting to become top 25 finishes with some real upside mixed into the fold. I’ll take this opportunity to jump back on a golfer who most will overlook as a result of one bad finish in difficult conditions.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. There are a couple of interesting standouts this week, both of which will make my rosters in GPPs with almost definite certainty. The first of which most notably was a back to back winner this season, but more recently has only played three times in three months including an MDF and missed cut. If you haven’t guessed the name yet, I’m talking about Justin Thomas. Look for JT to have low ownership and the skill to win on any given week. All of that being said, I’m not sure this is the week I want to attack Justin Thomas. On a course that is going to be a second shot course that requires good proximity and scrambling and some accuracy off the tee, I don’t know that this track favors JT enough to really want to dive head first into rostering him too heavily in GPPs. The other golfer who needs to be mentioned is Charl Schwartzel who is priced under $7,000 and has an astounding 20th rank in the world. Charl defiitely stands out as a golfer who could be affected by the clustered ownership I mentioned above, so don’t look for Charl’s price to go unnoticed. Contrary to JT, Charl seems to have the game that fits this course to the ‘T’ and his course history paints the same picture. With six made cuts in his last six tries, four top twenty finishes, and two top tens Charl has some of the best course history in the field, and as such I’ll be playing him in all formats.
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The Memorial Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by Brad Messersmith | May 23, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value.This week brings us value in Carmen Tringale who is just over 100:1 to win the event despite being only $100 above the minimum salary at $6,400. With five made cuts out of six tries at this event and a top ten in his last appearance, Tringale just may be worth a flier in GPPs this week. The other standout this week is is ‘Party’ Marty Laird who has roughly 90:1 odds to win this event despite his $6,900 price tag. Despite having missed the cut here last year, Martin Laird does have two top ten finishes at this event in his five made cuts in his last six tries. I won’t be going all-in but I don’t hate the way vegas has priced Laird’s odds and it certainly makes for a relatively inexpensive golfer with real upside.
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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. This week there are a couple of standouts in terms of ownership, one of which is a golfer I’ve talked about a lot in this article series. Tony Finau has an initial projected ownership of under 20% yet has consistently outperformed his salary time in and time out this season. Since his switch from Nike equipment, Finau has been a completely changed golfer. I will continue to jump on the Finau train and sing his praises until I run out of money.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. There are some serious swings when it comes to the OWGR versus salary chart this week. Bud Cauly who is the 103rd golfer in the world is the eighth highest priced golfer in the field! This isn’t exactly a field full of the best and brightest golfers in the world but this seems like a mispriced player if I’ve ever seen one. Despite this discrepancy I am still advocating using Bud Cauly in GPPs. My hopes are that this price will keep ownership down on a golfer who has three straight top ten finishes, and two straight top 25 finishes at this event. The other interesting golfer that shows up on the OWGR vs. Salary chart is Yuta Ikeda. I’ll be the first to raise my hand and admit I don’t really know this golfer at all, however a quick google search shows that Ikeda has a win on the Asian tour in every year between 2009 and 2016 racking up a total of sixteen wins internationally. Definitely take it with a grain of salt, and there are no guarantees here, but Ikeda shows up as a blip on the charts, and the charts don’t lie!
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Dean & Deluca Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by Brad Messersmith | May 9, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week you will find that Brian Harman is our first standout with roughly 86:1 odds to win on average across multiple sites, and a salary that is only $300 above minimum price. Some of this may have something to do with his recent win on an unbelievable birdie putt on the eighteenth hole last week, but he also makes an interesting GPP play as a golfer who is coming in with his A-game. The other very interesting standout that I think makes a phenomenal GPP play is Ross Fisher, who enters this week with four straight made cuts internationally and three top tens in that same stretch. He’s definitely playing some of his best golf coming into this tournament and could make a fantastic GPP option with the upside he’s shown.
Click To Enlarge!
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. This week we have a few obvious standouts in the initial round of ownership projections, the first and most obvious of which is Henrik Stenson. Despite the low ownership I’m going to choose to fade Stenson because of how severely poor he’s been playing. Ordinarily I’d take this as an opportunity to hop on a golfer with low ownership and the skill to show some upside but I don’t really feel that is the situation with Stenson at this point. Until I see something more out of Stenson I will be staying away. The other golfer who I think will be low owned compared to the others in his salary range is Patrick Reed who after missing three straight cuts found his way into the top 15 last week. Having shown a glimmer of upside, Patrick Reed will definitely make his way into my GPP lineups in hopes that his course history will serve to keep his ownership deflated as well.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. Last week’s OWGR comparison looked to be very fruitful as Alexander Noren went into Sunday near the top of the leaderboard, however his final round 77 may have hurt a bit. That being said, guess who is right back at it this week? Most people who rostered Noren will choose to stay away after a rotten Sunday afternoon like that, but I am going to go right back to the well here. Noren is the 12th ranked golfer in the world for a reason, and even though he didn’t last week, if Noren can put together four straight solid rounds he has the talent to win on a big stage like this. The other standout I feel is worth mentioning is Jon Rahm, who on paper looks to be overpriced based on his OWGR, but I say you can toss this type of information right out the window when it comes to Jon Rahm. Easily the most talented rookie on tour that we’ve seen in some time, Rahm is in a class of his own at this point and at this rate will find his way into the top ten in the OWGR very quickly.
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The PLAYERS Championship Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
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