CareerBuilder Challenge Preview – DraftKings

CareerBuilder Challenge Preview – DraftKings

What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! I hope everyone enjoyed their time in Hawaii, snuck in Patton Kizzire into a few lineups and won some money, but it is time to head to the mainland for the CareerBuilder Challenge!

The CareerBuilder Challenge is a unique event – the only one of its kind. It is held at three different courses in California, La Quinta Country Club, Nicklaus Tournament Course and TPC Stadium Course. Since there are three different courses, this event is a 54 hole cut event, where every golfer will play a course once, before returning to the TPC Stadium Course after the cut for the final round on Sunday. All three courses are Par 72s, with all of them falling in the 7,000 yard range. All three of these courses ranked in the bottom 10 in terms of difficulty in 2017 – expect a lot of DraftKings scoring, especially with the three guaranteed rounds.

Stats for the Week

SG:Ball Striking

Birdie or Better Gained

SG:Putting – Bermuda

Bogey Avoidance

SG:Par 5s

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Jon Rahm – $11,800

If you are considering fading Rahm this week, you have lost it. He is head and shoulders better than anyone else in this field, yet is only priced $300 more than Brian Harman. Rahm is the biggest lock of locks. Don’t worry about the price, there are plenty of solid cheap options to fill in your roster with. Rahm has finished inside the top seven in five of his last six. His SG:Ball striking numbers are otherworldly. Don’t get cute – have the winner on your roster.

Webb Simpson – $9,700

Don’t look now, but it seems as though Webb Simpson has learned how to putt. He has been known as a terrible putter his entire career, but since switching to the Kuchar style (cheating) grip, he has been lights out. Simpson has gained strokes on the green in seven of his last 10 events. He put on a clinic last week at the Sony gaining 4.6, while adding 3.7 on approaches. He finished T4 last week, saw a marginal price increase and is back at an event he has played solid at in the past.

Bud Cauley – $8,400

Bud Cauley is becoming a trendy name in the DFS golf world this week. This is mainly because of his success at this event in the last two years – T3 and T14. His $8,400 price tag may seem steep, so maybe the buzz he is receiving won’t translate to ownership. Let’s cross our fingers. Cauley is a world class ball striker when he is on, but let’s the putter fail him one too many times. If Cauley can maintain his approach game that he carried with him all of last season, I don’t see any reason why he can’t repeat with his success at the CareerBuilder.

Brandt Snedeker – $7,700

I am totally buying into the narrative that Brandt Snedeker needs to play well this winter/spring in order to get into the only event he cares about – The Masters. Currently, Brandt is not eligible to tee it up at Augusta, so he needs a win, or to climb inside the top 50 in the world golf rankings. Sneds missed most of last year with a hand injury, but has since returned making the cut at the RSM Classic. He hasn’t played the CareerBuilder in a couple of years, but I think his desperation and elite caliber are enough to put him in contention on Sunday.

Ben Martin – $6,900

Ben Martin popped in my model last week and I was dumb enough to ignore it. I am not letting that happen for the CareerBuilder. Martin is only $6,900 and is coming off a great performance (T7) at the Sony Open. Martin gained 5.9 SG:APP and 3.5 SG:P last week – numbers that if they are repeated will make his price tag seem like a joke on Sunday.

CareerBuilder Challenge Interactive Data

Note these tools are FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:

[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]

Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Patrick Reed – $11,100

The top of the board this week is going to be dominated by Jon Rahm, with good reason. But Patrick Reed has caught my eye as a primetime pivot option, someone who could easily end up being less that 10% owned his week. It’s been a while since Reed made some noise, the PGA Championship to be exact. However, when everyone was focused on football, Reed slid a T5 into the mix at the Hero World Challenge. I know that is a barely an event, but it does show his form has been there within the last few weeks. Let’s not forget Reed won the CareerBuilder in 2014.

Austin Cook – $8,700

Austin Cook continues to impress. Following him closely at the Sony last week told an intriguing story. He started off the week dialled in, but his putter let him down for two straight days. Through 12 holes on Friday, he had lost 5.2 strokes on the green. He battled on the back nine to make the cut on the number, then go on through the weekend to climb inside the top 20. If that isn’t grinding out an event, I don’t know what is. He ended up gaining strokes in all categories at the Sony, has seen a $1,100 price jump and only has ONE tag on FanShare sports. I think he is primed for another great result.

Peter Uihlein – $8,200

Everyone wants Uihlein to be the next Brooks Koepka, but there is a very real possibility he doesn’t come close. However, he has show results this fall that are encouraging and are allowing me to overlook his missed cut last week at the Sony. Uihlein lost 2.6 strokes putting, his second worst recorded tournament on the greens. With only one tag on FanShare Sports and priced underneath the popular Bud Cauley, Uihlein is in line for a sub 10%, top 10 finish.

J.T. Poston – $7,200

It doesn’t take long for the DFS world to completely forget who you are. Example – J.T. Poston, a golfer who became super popular during the fall swing season as his results and price didn’t seem to ever align. We have ourselves a similar situation. Poston is his typical $7,200 despite having very respectable stats in terms of BoB Gained, SG:Ball Striking and Bogey Avoidance over his last 24 rounds. He came T34 here last year in his only ever trip. He has a single tag on FanShare Sports and will likely be under 5% owned.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Chesson Hadley – $9,000

It’s been a couple of months since we saw Chesson Hadley’s run of brilliance in the fall. He rattled off three straight top five finishes before ending the season with a T37 at the RSM Classic. That was his last event, and I am worried there will be some rust to brush off in his first trip back. What also doesn’t help is that Hadley has missed the cut all three times he’s played here. At $9,000, I’d much rather know I am getting a golfer in good form – or at least a golfer who has proven it for a long time. I’ll be taking my money elsewhere.

Bubba Watson – $8,000

If you are someone who enjoys to roster Bubba, and is seriously considering it this week – good for you, you daredevil. I don’t trust Bubba for a second, even if he does have a white ball back in play. He is coming off what I’d imagine is his worst year of his career – a year in which he saw his world golf ranking fall from 10 to 73. $8,000 is way to rich for me in tournaments, let alone putting him in a cash lineup. Don’t get drawn in by the name or the story that going back to a Titleist ball is going to resurrect his career. Wait until he puts at least a couple good rounds under his belt.

Jimmy Walker – $7,600

It’s very unfortunate to watch, but the decline of Jimmy Walker is tough to watch. He has now missed four straight cuts, and last week’s Sony Open might be the most eye opening. He is a two time winner at Waialae and was his first event after a long break. You’d expect him to be in form and not exhausted from the Lyme’s disease. Now he gets a $400 price increase, which surely should scare people off. It sucks, but you cannot roster him until he shows he is fully healthy. It would be nice to be proven wrong here.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Bill Haas – $8,600

Historically, Haas has dominated this event. In his last four attempts, he has a T17, two top 10s and took home the trophy in 2015. Not surprisingly, he leads the field in strokes gained at this event. Haas has also missed back-to-back cuts, seen a $400 price increase and is priced right above the soon to be chalky Russell Knox. Losing 3.9 strokes putting is a great way to miss the cut, something Haas did last week at the Sony Open. I expect nothing but a solid rebound from Haas this week – how about at top 10?

J.J. Spaun – $7,900

Spaun was very popular last week, got out of the gates quickly but then failed to put another solid round together. If you weren’t paying attention, you’d think he didn’t make a birdie for 54 straight holes. What is encouraging about Spaun’s less than stellar T47 at the Sony Open, is that he lost the majority of his strokes around the green. He gained more strokes T2G than Brian Stuard, who finished T4. Similarly to Haas, I expect Spaun to figure it out around and on the greens and reward those who stuck with him for the CareerBuilder.

Thanks for reading the CareerBuilder Challenge preview article! Follow me on Twitter for more DFS and golf betting talk! Also, don’t forget to check out FanShareSports.com to get a full look at who the DFS golf community is talking about this week!

Good luck this week everybody!!

Sony Open Preview – DraftKings

Sony Open Preview – DraftKings

What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! I hope everyone enjoyed the first week and is back into the swing of things! DJ was DJ in Maui, and if you didn’t have a piece of him it was hard to compete. Overall, the first week was a success and an awesome kickoff to what should be a great year.

The PGA Tour is staying in Hawaii for the Sony Open hosted by Waialae Country Club. Waialae has played host to this event since its inauguration giving us plenty of course history to look back on. The course plays as a 7,044 yard Par 70, with just two Par 5s we love for DraftKings scoring. Compared to last week, the fairways are much narrower and less fairways are hit here compared to the average PGA Tour event. However, the rough isn’t very penial, which is why typical winning scores still end up in the -20s or high teens. Waialae is a second shot course. Ten of the Par 4s range from 400-500 yards and the majority of approach shots on the course will be coming from 150-200 yards. If a golfer scores on the Par 4s this week, they will end up near the top of the leaderboard. Shoutout to Kenny Kim (@KendoVT) for this stat – 13 of the last 19 winners of the Sony Open played the week before at Kapalua. Chalk that up to guys acclimated to the climate, the Bermuda grass greens, and getting rid of any rust that built up over the off season.

Stats for the Week

SG:Approach

Birdie or Better Gained

SG:Putting – Bermuda

Par 4 Efficiency – 400-500 yards

Proximity 150-200

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Jordan Spieth – $12,000

Man oh man did Spieth forget how to putt last week or what!! It was one of the worst putting performances of his career, and he still managed to finish 9th. Spieth was lights out tee-to-green but gave it all back with the flatty. What is encouraging is that we all know how elite Spieth is on the greens so it could easily come back just as fast as it left. Even if he putts field average this week at the Sony Open and continues his tee-to-green game, he’ll win this event. His price makes lineup construction difficult, but I doubt we see his ownership fall below 25%. I’m willing to shove all in while others are still feeling the burn from doing so last week.

Kevin Kisner – $10,100

I fully expect Kisner to fly under the radar this week with three big names priced above him and the in-form Brian Harman right there as well. Kisner stands out for a few reasons. First, he played last week which is huge. As mentioned above, 13 of the last 19 winners of The Sony Open have played the week before in the ToC. Check mark for Kisner. He also has the course history. Kis has a T4 and a T5 in his last two trips to the Sony. He can putt on Bermuda greens, is excellent on Par 4s and when he is on with his approach game he is usually in contention. I see another top 5 finish in the cards for Kisner this week.

Tony Finau – $8,900

It’s been quite a while since we have been able to roster Tony Finau, and I am pretty damn excited. Finau ended 2017 on his best run of his career. He had two top tens in the FedEx Cup playoffs, a 2nd at the Safeway Open and two more top 16s in his last two events. His stats are incredible over that time, and in his last two recorded event, he gained 5.5 SG:APP in each. He came T20 at the 2017 Sony Open, giving him some familiarity with the course which is what you want in a cash game player. Plenty of people have pegged Finau as a big time break out player this year, and a win this week would be a huge start to the season for Tony.

J.J. Spaun – $7,600

J.J. Spaun comes in ranked first in my weighted stat model this week because he finished the 2017 season hot as hell. Perhaps it is lucky for us that he didn’t pick up his first career title in the fall swing season and was saving it for the 2018 Sony Open. His game will suit this course as he is one of the best on Par 4s between 400-450, makes a ton of birdies and ranks 4th in SG:APP over his last 12 rounds. Surprisingly, Spaun did miss the cut here last year because he lost four strokes around the green. I do not expect that to be an issue if his irons are dialled in like they should be. He finished 2017 with three straight top 15s and a 2nd at the RSM Classic. Look for him to pick up where he left off at the Sony.

Jason Dufner – $7,300

How in the world is Jason Dufner priced $7,300. This mispricing won’t go unnoticed but still has to be taken advantage of. Duf played solid last week with a T11 finish Tournament of Champions, mainly because of his putter. Still, he is one of the best in the game on approach shots and has gained strokes on approaches in 16 of his last 18 events. Despite missing the cut here last season, he did finish T9 in 2016. I love Dufner for cash games this week because his price makes lineup construction so much easier.

Sony Open Interactive Data

Note these tools are FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:

[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]

Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Webb Simpson – $9,300

This doesn’t make me feel warm and fuzzy inside, because I hate rostering the inconsistent Webb Simpson. But it looks as though he will be the lowest owned golfer priced above $9K this week according to the early tag results on FanShare Sports. Simpson’s price is reasonable. We have seen him priced in the five digit range in similar field events last season. He also has three straight T13 finishes at the Sony Open. If ball striking will be important this week, a low owned Webb Simpson is the guy you need to take down a GPP.

Xander Schauffele – $8,600

Alright Xander, we’ll let you off the hook since last week was your first trip to Maui. Looking back, his T22 finish shouldn’t have been a surprise at the ToC. He uncharacteristically lost 5.8 strokes on approaches, his second worst performance of his career in that stat. The reason why I like Xander so much this week is that he is wedged in between Berger and Si Woo Kim, so he will be completely ignored. I’d be surprised to see his ownership go over 10% – a rare number to see for a two time winner on tour and rookie of the year. Xander is in a prime bounce back spot.

Chris Kirk – $7,100

Kirk’s price jumped out at me at first glance – that’s why he ended up in this article. Kirk has had success at this event in the past, two top 5s and a T26 in the past five years. Unfortunately, his last two attempts have resulted in missed cuts. What is encouraging is that Kirk found some form at the end of the 2017 season, making seven of his last eight cuts and finished T4 at the RSM Classic his last time out. He has also gained strokes on approaches in five straight events. Kirk falls in the crowded low $7K range and won’t gain traction throughout the week. He is definitely worth a flier or two.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Si Woo Kim – $8,500

I love Si Woo Kim as much as the next guy thanks to his profitable win at The Players. But in this spot, at $8,500 when the entire world seems to be jumping aboard – I have to abandon ship. I agree he can win this event no problem, but the likely hood he returns value at his price tag is a long shot. Kim only has 16 top 10s in 153 career events. One of those top 10s was last week and he has only had back-to-back top 10s twice in his career. He comes and goes faster than anyone, and if he is going to be chalk this week it seems like a logical fade.

Brian Gay – $7,900

The last time we saw Gay tee it up, he finished T3 at the RSM Classic. That result is still on people’s minds, as he has created some early buzz for the Sony Open. Gay’s $7,900 price is steep to say the least, and will have to rely heavily on his putter this week if is going to return value. His stats are very mediocre when it comes to SG:APP, Par 4 efficiency from the key yardages and his proximity from 150-200 ranks in the 90s. Having to put that much stock into a golfer’s flat stick is a scary proposition.

Jerry Kelly – $7,500

Sorry old man Jerry, none of you this week. I would have been intrigued if Kelly was closer to the dead minimum, but the risk he carries at $7,500 is high. Kelly will likely be unpopular, but his course history could lure some people in. He has three top 10s here in the past five years, but also two missed cuts. Stay away, stay faarrrr away.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Justin Thomas – $11,600

JT did not get the seasons started the way he had hoped. His T22 at the Tournament of Champions was mainly due to the fact that he lost 3.6 strokes on the green. He was also only about 15% owned across large tournaments last week, as the highest priced golfer. This field is obviously weaker, but not too many people will be super eager to put him back into their lineups. I do not see JT’s ownership eclipsing 20% this week, and as the defending champ who rarely needs to show form prior to a win – this is a perfect time to go all in.

Austin Cook – $7,600

Austin Cook created quite a bit of buzz last week in his first ever trip to Kapalua, thanks to a couple of big time names in the industry. As expected with most first timers at the ToC, he finished a subpar T22, losing strokes across the board. However, Kip Henley, Austin Cook’s caddie, said in an interview that the Sony Open is the event he expected Austin to do better at. That is a first hand, honest opinion about a golfer in this field that we have to consider. In Cook’s win at the RSM Classic, he gained 4.5 strokes on approaches, a stat that will be crucial this week. Cook makes a ton birdies and is the 4th most efficient golfer on Par 4s between 450-500 yards in the field over his last 12 rounds.

Thanks for reading the Sony Open preview article! Follow me on Twitter for more DFS and golf betting talk! Also, don’t forget to check out FanShareSports.com to get a full look at who the DFS golf community is talking about this week!

Good luck this week everybody!!

 

 

 

 

Sentry Tournament of Champions Preview – DraftKings

Sentry Tournament of Champions Preview – DraftKings

What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! WELCOME TO THE 2018 GOLF SEASON!!! I could not be more excited to be back for another season and provide content for DFS On Demand. Last year was fantastic, but there is always room for improvement so let’s start the year off right!

The season gets kicked off in Maui, Hawaii with the Sentry Tournament of Champions. The name of the tournament says it all. this is a 34 man, no cut event,  composed of all of the winners from the 2017 calendar year. The host course is The Plantation Course at Kapalua, a very rare Par 73 that is 7,400 yards in length with only three Par 3s. The fairways at Kapalua are wider than a runway, and because of that are some of the easiest to hit on tour. The winning score at this event in the past five years has ranged from -16 to -30 – buckle up for a birdiefest! The Plantation Course uses very slow, Bermuda grass greens with wild undulations, and because of this, first timers at this event have struggled to get the flat stick going and seldomly have a ton of success.

Stats for the Week

SG:Approach

Birdie or Better Gained

SG:Par 5

Bogey Avoidance

Par 4 Efficiency – 350-400 yards.

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Jordan Spieth – $10,900

If it weren’t for Jordan’s dominance at Augusta, Kapalua would be at the top of the list for elite course history. In three trips to the Plantation course, Spieth has three top 3s and a win in 2016. He is shockingly not the highest priced golfer, which makes him a value play at the top even if it is only a couple $100 bucks. In the most recent event we have to look at, albeit the Hero World Challenge, Spieth came 3rd. I’d be shocked if he isn’t in the final pairing on Sunday.

Hideki Matsuyama – $9,800

If you aren’t familiar with my articles, I have a little motto/series of questions I like to ask that has worked out quite well in the past. Question 1 – Is there a cut? No. Question 2 – Is Hideki in the field? If yes – PLAY HIDEKI!!! After his win at the WGC – Bridgestone Invitational last year, Matsuyama had collected three wins and a runner up finish in his previous five no cut events. Just an insane run. I’ll slide in the fact that he came T5 at the Hero World Challenge so his form is where it needs to be.

Marc Leishman – $9,000

The best thing I like about Leishman this week, is the fact I do not anticipate his ownership being very high relative to the field. His $9,000 price tag lands in a tricky spot, and I expect rosters to be constructed with two higher priced golfers, forcing a lot of people to overlook Leishman. Also, for whatever reason, Aussies have had tremendous success at this event. Perhaps it’s the windy playing conditions or even the location on the PGA schedule (there are a few Australian events at the end of November/early December). Geoff Ogilvy, Stuart Appleby and Steve Elkington are all multiple time winners of this event – so let’s hope the Aussie tradition holds up with Leishman. Leish finished 2017 on a remarkable run, winning a FedEx Cup playoff event and throwing in a couple top 5s along the way. I expect big things for him in 2018, so why not get the season started off right in Hawaii.

Pat Perez – $8,000

Who else is ready to eat the Pat Perez chalk with me? With good reason, Perez is going to be a popular play this week but is still an option in all formats. He is affordable and played very well in the fall swing season, collecting a win in Malaysia and a T5 in South Korea. Perez has the all around game to get the job done here and it showed with his T3 here last year. He’s locked and loaded in my cash lineup this week and a finish outside the top 10 would be shocking.

Cameron Smith – $7,600

There isn’t a hotter golfer in this field than Cam Smith right now. He has four straight top five finishes worldwide, while winning the Australian PGA Championship. Smith is a first timer at this event, but he does have the Australian narrative working in his favour. Cam will be able to handle the winds if they do pick up over the week. In his past 24 recorded rounds, he ranks 12th in the field in BoB Gained, a stat that will bode well if this event becomes a shootout.

Tournament of Champions Interactive Data

Note these tools are FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:

[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]

Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Justin Thomas – $11,100

The defending champ and 2017 Player of the Year a pivot? Looks like it. On FanShareSports.com, JT has the fewest tags of anyone priced above $10K. Spieth will be the highest owned in that group and JT’s price makes it a little more difficult to build an eye popping lineup. We have got to learn from the past that JT is a perfect tournament option regardless of his price. He could easily run away with this event and no one would be shocked if he defends his title. Add on the fact he will be the lowest owned elite golfer in the field? How can anyone pass that up.

Brian Harman – $8,700

Brian Harman is easily going to be the lowest owned golfer above $8K. He only has 11 tags on FanShare Sports with his price tag making it difficult to roster. Harman is a close second to Cam Smith in terms of recent form entering this event. He has a T5, 8th and T4 in his last three events. Harman also loves Bermuda grass greens. He ranks second in this field in SG:Putting on Bermuda grass over his past 50 rounds.

Xander Schauffele – $8,500

It didn’t take long for the Xander buzz to quickly fizzle out. The 2017 rookie of the year only has five tags on FanShare and is another guy who falls in a tricky range in terms of lineup construction. It is Schauffele’s first trip to Kapalua, so the potential of a long adjustment period to these greens is possible. However, I believe Schauffele is the type of talent that can overcome the first time narrative, just like Jon Rahm. Xander is one of my favorite tournament plays and is a guy who has shown he can beat the world’s best in the past.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Kevin Chappell – $7,700

There are a few things that scare me with Kevin Chappell this week. First, this is his first trip to Kapalua and I am worried he is going to fall into the trap a lot of newbies experience. He is not a good putter on Bermuda greens, ranks 29th in the field over his past 50 rounds on Bermuda greens. He also played fairly poorly to finish the 2017 season. This scary combination of lack of course history, shaking putting and below average recent form will force Chappell off of my lineups this week.

Patton Kizzire – $7,300

Tough in a field of 34 with no cut to come up with fades, but Kizzire is a guy who won’t sniff a roster this week. Again, the first time narrative is in effect. Kizzire really struggled most of last year and had one of the worst seasons out of the “champions” in this field. $7,300 is a little rich as well, especially when Brendan Steele and Dufner are priced right around him.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

It’s been so long since these guys had a chance to burn us! Tune in next week when we have some options to jump back on.

Thanks for reading the Sentry Tournament of Champions preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.

Good luck this week everybody!!

RSM Classic Preview – DraftKings

RSM Classic Preview – DraftKings

What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! I hope everyone had a successful week in Mexico. My picks last week weren’t as hot as the Mexican sun, but at least they weren’t as s***ty as Chesson Hadley’s weekend.

We are winding down in the 2017 calendar year for golf, so let’s enjoy our last no cut event of the season – the RSM Classic. The touring pros are heading to Sea Island Golf Club on the east coast of Georgia. This event will be played on two different courses on Thursday and Friday. They golfers will rotate between the Seaside and Plantation course, before heading back to the Seaside course for the weekend. Both courses play very similar, ending up just over 7,000 yards in length. The golfers who typically have had great success at this event have been the accuracy, plotter type who tend to hit a lot of fairways and greens. Distance will not be required this week, and many golfers will not need to use a driver all weekend. The courses main defence is wind due to its proximity to the ocean. Scores over the past few years have ranged from -14 to -22 since the first event was played here in 2010.

Stats for the Week

SG-Approach – 30%
Birdie or Better Gained – 25%
SG- Off the Tee – 10%
Par 4 400-450 – 10%
SG- Putting – 10%
Fairways Gained – 10%
SG- Around the Green – 5%

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Matt Kuchar – $11,100

The fact that Matt Kuchar isn’t the most expensive golfer in this field is value in itself. Yes, Kisner has won here before, but there are very few golfers in the game as consistent as Kuch. His accuracy should play perfect at Sea Island. In my weighted stat model, he ranks 1st when looking at all recorded rounds, emphasizing his fit for the course. His lack of recent play doesn’t concern me. Kuch’s game is so steady that some time off is likely beneficial.

Charles Howell – $9,500

There are few golfers that like Sea Island more than Charles Howell III. In his past five trips here, he has made the cut each time and has three top 13 finishes. Howell has and never will be considered a winner but he has an excellent chance at a top 10 every week. His last three results are all top 20s and are trending in the right direction capped by his T4 last week at the OHL. $9,500 is a perfect price to start your cash game lineups.

J.J. Spaun – $9,000

Last week was a big test for Spaun. His collapse at the Shriners was well documented, so seeing how he performed at the OHL would be telling of his mental game. He came T14 last week gaining seven shots on the field – a very good result given the circumstances. Now that the Shriners let down is well in the past, Spaun heads to an event that should fit his game. He ranks 3rd in my stat model over the past 12 rounds, crushing it on approach shots, birdie or better and on Par 4s between 400-450. This is the last event golfers like Spaun will have a chance to win before the calendar turns, so look for that extra motivation vault a lot of golfers on the cusp to the top of the board.

J.T. Poston – $7,200

Somehow J.T. Poston is only $7,200 and that must be taken advantage of. Like Spaun, Poston has played back-to-back really solid tournaments and finds himself in a must win situation. Poston is one of many golfers who calls Sea Island Golf Club home, so look for that extra level of comfort to work in his advantage. Over his past 12 rounds, Poston has been great off the tee, making birdies on Par 4s and solid around the green. It will take all that again for Poston to make a run before the 2017 season comes to a close.

Seamus Power – $6,900

Seamus Power is my favourite play in the sub $7K range. He is similar to Poston in the fact that he too calls Sea Island his home course, despite being from Ireland. That Irish background will also help Power here as the windy conditions are something he is very use to playing in. Power did miss the cut last week at the OHL Classic by two shots, which is an expected result on occasion for a golfer of this caliber. It was only three tournaments ago where Power gained 6.9 shots on the field in approach shots. If that form returns a top 10 is well within reach.

RSM Classic Interactive Data

Note these tools are FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:

[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]

Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Zach Johnson – $9,100

Taking a quick peek at FanShareSports, Zach Johnson leaps off the page as a $9K+ golfer who won’t garner much attention this week. He only has eight tags this week despite his ideal fit for the course. He ranks 1st in the field from the key Par 4 range of 400-450. This course has nine Par 4s that fall in that range giving ZJ an edge on half of the holes. He’s played real solid in his last two starts and this is a field that he can easily contend in.

Bud Cauley $8,500

Bud Cauley has fallen off the radar because of his time off and poor performances in Asia. Everyone was on him to being the fall swing season because he was one of those guys you could see winning a weaker field event. Being $8,500 this week will keep his ownership down even though he is a fit for the course. At the end of the 2017 season he showed that he could be one of the better ball strikers on tour. Take a gamble on one of the best low owned-high upside plays on the board.

Beau Hossler – $8,000

Hossler has been very impressive this fall and what better way to cap it off than with a win at the RSM. He came back down to earth last week at the OHL Classic, but before that had two top 10s. He has shown consistency tee to green as well as the ability to roll the rock on the green. Beau only has five tags on FanShareSports compared to Scott Brown’s 13 priced the exact same. I have a strong feeling Beau finishes the fall season strong.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Brian Harman – $11,000

Brian Harman is $11,000 and it’s a hard pass for me. It’s not necessarily the price that scares me – it’s a terrible field and he is one of the better golfers. But I don’t see a big difference between him and a few guys priced $2,000 cheaper, say Zach Johnson for example. There will be a lot of talk about Harman this week because he is from the area, but it looks like that is a detriment to him for this event in the past. Harman has missed the last two cuts here and only has one top 10 in five years.

Brandt Snedeker – $8,600

Usually this would be a great spot to jump on Snedeker because of the weak field and very affordable price. However, he hasn’t played since the Travelers (end of June) and that is very concerning. I’m sure he has been hitting the ball fine at the range and feels healthy, however there should be hesitation when rostering a guy who hasn’t played competitive golf in five months. I’ll wait til 2018 before Sneds is worth consideration.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Chesson Hadley – $10,200

The case of the Mexican runs claimed another victim. After battling to make the cut on Friday, Hadley must have had one too many burritos Friday night in celebration and there just were not enough outhouses on the course to play a full 18. Hopefully he got his imodium in him and is ready to rock for the RSM Classic. He has been playing lights out this fall and there is no reason to believe it will not continue.

Nick Taylor – $7,600

Taylor was one of many chalk plays that burned people at the OHL Classic. His solid form entering the week was intriguing and he was only $7,400. Now Taylor gets a price bump of $200 off a missed cut, and his tags have decreased from 14 to two on FanShareSports. The potential for back-to-back missed cuts is there, but his ownership will be non-existent in GPPs and is definitely worth a look.

Aaron Wise – $7,500

I have a weird gut feeling that Aaron Wise is going to contend this week. He has been hyped up all fall series as a potential first time winner – and has played decent up until last week. As mentioned prior, this is the last shot these tour rookies have to win before for the full season begins. People are bored of rostering/touting Wise so while everyone is looking elsewhere, this is a perfect time to capitalize on recency bias.

Thanks for reading the RSM Classic preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.

Good luck this week everybody!

OHL Classic Preview – DraftKings

OHL Classic Preview – DraftKings

What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! CANTLAY GETS IT DONE!!! I hope everyone was able to reap the rewards of his first career win – it was easy to pull for him considering the obstacles he has had to overcome. Let’s turn the page and try to make it back-to-back!

The PGA Tour heads south of the border, to Playa Del Carmen Mexico for the OHL Classic at Mayakoba. The event will be played at the El Camaleon Golf Club, which has played host to this event since 2007. It is a short course, extremely short, coming in at just under 7,000 yards. That is tiny for a Par 71. El Camaleon’s main defence is the wind, and gusts this week in Playa Del Carmen are not suppose to be bad. Expect some low scores. Accuracy off the tee will be important, but so will approach shots just like every other week. Par 5 scoring will also be very important as it has made up about half of the winners scoring from the last few years.

Stats for the Week

SG-Approach – 30%

Birdie or Better Gained – 30%

SG-Par 5 – 15%

Good Drives Gained – 15%

Par 4 400-500 – 10%

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Chesson Hadley – $9,900

Last week, Chesson Hadley tried to ruin my weekend as I had 0% exposure to him. I am not making that mistake again. Hadley is not your typical Web.com Tour grad, as he has been on the PGA Tour before and won the 2014 Puerto Rico Open. In his last six events entering the OHL Classic, Hadley has a win and four top 5s. Three of those top fives were his last three PGA Tour starts. He has the best form entering the event and is due to finally break into the winner’s circle again. It is not even close in terms of key stats over the past 12 rounds, blowing away the rest of the field in all categories. Hadley is my pick to win.

Kevin Chappell – $9,000

Seeing Chappell last week at $10,200 was exciting, but at $9,000….my pants are off.  I don’t understand the price drop considering his solid T20 last week at the Shriners. What makes that performance even better was the fact that he LOST 7.1 strokes putting. That put him near the bottom for the week but was able to overcome it by gaining a ridiculous amount of shots tee to green. Chappell is in a tier below Fowler and Reed in this field, but he is definitely one of the 10 best golfers competing this week. At $9,000, I will be well overweight on Chappell like I was last week with Cantlay. His price does not hinder your lineup construction in anyway. All in.

Bryson DeChambeau – $8,700

The scientist put on quite a display last week at the Shriners. Bryson gained six shots on the field in approach shots and was decent off the tee as well leading to his T7  finish. He ranks 4th in my weighted stat model because of his strong approach game recently. So far in his career he has excelled on shorter courses, such as Harbour Town and TPC Deere Run. Bryson made the cut here last year in his first trip to El Camaleon, so the familiarity should help.

Ryan Armour – $7,500

Ryan Armour is keeping the heater going. I fully expected Armour to let off the gas pedal a bit last week after his win at the Sanderson Farms, but he came T20 at the Shriners where his putter let him down. Armour is a poor man’ Hadley in terms of key stats. Over his last 12 rounds, Armour ranks 3rd in the field in SG:APP and Bob Gained. He is also very efficient on Par 4s between 450-500, and this course has five of them.

J.J. Spaun – $7,100

It was tough to watch J.J. Spaun crumble on the weekend and see the win slip out of his hands on the final few holes. Even though he did fall apart, he gained 7.8 strokes on approaches last week which is encouraging and something he should be able to carry into this week. Consider the Shriners a learning experience for Spaun who had never really contended like last week on the PGA Tour. It’s very tough for guys to close their first time holding a lead heading into the weekend. I expect a lot of people will avoid Spaun because of the recency bias, but if he is the competitor he talks himself up to being, he should bounce back nicely in Mexico.

OHL Classic Interactive Data

Note these tools are FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:

[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]

Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Patrick Reed – $10,500

Patrick Reed is the second most talented golfer in the field, but according to FanShare Sports, people haven’t even clued in he is playing this week. He has two tags so far, well behind Fowler, Perez and Hadley. Webb Simpson’s withdraw only gives three options above the $10K range so it’s hard to see Reed’s ownership dip below 10%. This is a very weak field that Reed could easily dominate. If building multiple GPP lineups Reed has to be in about 20%.

Charley Hoffman – $9,700

Hoffman had an up and down tournament last week in Las Vegas. He finished strong which is nice to see entering this week. At $9,700, Hoffman seems underpriced for this field. He won the 2014 OHL Classic but somehow followed it up with two missed cuts the last two years. Regardless, his pedigree is superior to over 90% of the field and could very well hoist the trophy again. He only has seven tags on FanShare Sports, and makes for a perfect pivot off of this week’s uber chalk Chesson Hadley.

Ryan Moore – $8,600

Ryan Moore had a rare off week with his approach shots at the Shriners, losing three strokes in SG:APP, his worst performance since the 2016 BMW Championship. I expect him to bounce back this week and not make arrant approaches a trend. Even with last week’s result, over his past 12 rounds Moore ranks 4th in the field in SG:APP and 1st in Good Drives gained. Bryson, Knox and Kokrak are gaining much more attention this week according to FanShare, so this looks like the perfect buy low opportunity.

Emiliano Grillo – $7,600

I expect Emiliano Grillo to have a solid year on tour after his sophomore slump in 2017. Grillo played decent at this year’s Safeway but failed to bring that form overseas to Asia. Grillo came T10 in last year’s OHL Classic so he clearly has the accuracy style game that will fit this course. He only has three tags on FanShare Sports, way less that McDowell and Streelman who are priced in the same range. Don’t be shocked to see Grillo’s name pop up on the leaderboard come Sunday.

Ben Silverman – $7,500

Ben Silverman has to be the least known Canadian on tour, despite his recent run solid form. He has made three straight cuts in his first year on tour, highlighted by a T7 at the Sanderson Farms. Even last week he battled his way back to a T47 after struggling out of the gate. Over his past 12 rounds, Silverman ranks 8th in SG:APP, 7th in BoB Gained and 7th in Par 5 scoring. If these stats continue he will be a phenomenal GPP play as he only has been mentioned twice on FanShare.

Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Whee Kim – $8,300

We saw Whee Kim contend last week at the Shriners for the first time ever. With the extra TV time, people will be drawn into him knowing he is coming in with some good form. However, it doesn’t take long to find out that he gained 8.6 strokes putting last week, while being slightly above average everywhere else. If his putting regresses just slightly he will come crashing down to earth. At $8,300 that is a huge risk to take.

Anirban Lahiri – $8,100

Fading Anirban last week worked well so let’s double down. As expected, his game took a total nose dive last week and he lost strokes in all categories except putting. He came T51 at the Shriners despite gaining four strokes on the green. If his putter cools off a bit this week and his ball striking remains suspect, a missed cut is well within the cards.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Russell Knox – $8,500

Knox has not been playing well, no question about it. He’s had one top 10 since this exact event last season. Luckily he is returning to course he has had a great deal of success at, a course he leads the field in strokes gained at over the past five years. He has back-to-back top fives at El Camaleon so perhaps all he needs is a familiar setting to get back on track.

Scott Brown – $8,000

After a solid Asian swing, Scott Brown had a disappointing result last week at the Shriners. Like Knox, El Cameleon is a course he has had success at in the past, recording a T5 here in 2015 and making four straight cuts. He has also won the Puerto Rico Open, which is a similar style course to EL Cameleon, both using Paspalum greens. His price jumped up to $8,000 so no one will be tempted to use him even though this is a perfect bounce back spot.

Kevin Streelman – $7,600

It what is almost impossible to do, Kevin Streelman lost nine strokes putting last week. We know how variant putting results can be, so in situations where we are looking for bounce back candidates, looking for a stat like like Streelman’s is ideal. He gained 6.9 strokes T2G last week so if he continues that and puts just average he should have a solid finish. Streelman also came T4 at the OHL Classic last year.

Thanks for reading the OHL Classic preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.

Good luck this week everybody!!