by JFerrie23 | Apr 16, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, MLB |
Today we get ourselves a Saturday split slate with eight games early and seven games late. There are some great options on the board today, so let’s dive into it.
PITCHERS
The early slate finds Jake Arrieta as the top option going against the Rockies who are outside of Coors. If you’ve followed the Rockies over the last ten years, you would see that their numbers drop outside of their home ballpark. They won’t have their home park and will face the reigning Cy Young winner at home. Arrieta finished last season with a strikeout rate near 27.5%, so there is great strikeout upside today. Arrieta is a -319 favorite, which is the highest of the early season and may end up being the entire this season. Last season outside of Coors Field, the Rockies team wOBA dropped from .359 to .281. This is a very good matchup and at just $10,300—Arrieta is the top option early.
The wind in Cleveland is blowing in from center field at near 10 mph so Matt Harvey gets a bump. He is just $8,700, so he is very affordable and facing a lineup that was held in check by Bartolo Colon yesterday. The Indians will go from facing 86-88 to 93-96 today, so I think that could play a factor in this. In the early going, the Indians have been strikeout prone with nearly a 30% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. I am not too concerned about this Indians lineup outside of maybe Jason Kipnis. But with the wind blowing in from center and strikeout upside, I do like Matt Harvey in the early slate.
Right with Harvey we get Josh Tomlin, who gets the wind in his favor and has some strikeout upside with the Mets bats. Tomlin is a slight underdog today, but posted a 22% strikeout rate last season and gets the Mets who are striking out in nearly 25% of at bats in the early going. Tomlin is a fly ball pitcher, so the wind blowing in will do him some favors today. I like Tomlin at just $7,000 at he allows you to get a few extra bats and has some really nice upside early with the low total and the wind blowing in from center.
Later in the day we get Max Scherzer against the Phillies, which is the top overall matchup today, but it does come with a $13,100 price tag. The good news is that the other pitchers in the late slate aren’t too expensive so it shouldn’t kill your roster construction. The Phillies offense has been far from good this season and Joe Ross had no issues running through their lineup last night. There is legit complete game shutout, double-digit strikeout upside here and I won’t say that often. Scherzer hasn’t been himself thus far, so people may shy from the price tag. But the Phillies are striking out over 23% of the time against right-handed pitchers and Scherzer had a 30% strikeout rate last season. He is a -181 favorite in Vegas and will face Aaron Nola, who has been very good this season. Scherzer is far and away the best option late.
Aaron Nola actually comes in favorable in my rankings today as he get a Nationals team striking out 21% of the time against righties this season. Nola has racked up two impressive strikeout games this season, showing that he has strikeout upside for DFS purposes. The win probably won’t happen as that requires his offense to hit Max Scherzer, but he could go seven innings with seven or more strikeouts and that could certainly pay off his $7,900 price tag. It isn’t ideal to go with two pitchers that are facing on another, but the 6.5 total and Nola’s early start could push some toward that.
Johnny Cueto is going to be a popular option to go with Max Scherzer today at $10,100. Cueto gets the Dodgers, who he had some issues with in his outing in San Francisco. The Dodgers do come with a 20% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, but I am not sure Cueto is going to get to that price tag today. I would rather go with Scott Kazmir in this matchup as he is the favorite in Vegas and will have the better matchup against the Giant lefties. Now the Giants are disciplined at the plate, but on the late slate there isn’t a ton of options that I like. Cueto is fine, but I do worry about him meeting his price tag. I believe that Kazmir is more likely to meet his salary expectations at home against the Giants.
Recap:
Cash: Arrieta, Harvey, Scherzer, Kazmir (due to slate)
Tournament: Tomlin, Nola, Cueto, Kazmir, Miller (not mentioned—gets Padres and park upgrade)
STACKS
I don’t have a ton of stacks that I like today, but smaller pieces to stacks. The first of those will be against Jered Weaver. I think the Twins are about to show some life in those bats and it will start with Miguel Sano. Sano has a great wOBA and ISO against righties and I’m waiting for him to hit a ball 600 feet to get out of this early funk he had been in. The value play in this lineup is Oswaldo Arcia, who will hit sixth today and gets the platoon split in his favor. You may not recall, but Arcia hit 20 homers for the Twins in 2014 so there is some pop there. In that season, he had a .364 wOBA against righties. I think he is a great play today.
If we want to wait for the 6:10 game to get our action in, the Rays righties are in a great spot against John Danks. Last season Danks had a 16% strikeout rate, so he won’t be overpowering any of the Rays bats. He also allowed a .353 wOBA to right-handed bats which puts Evan Longoria, Logan Forsythe, Brandon Guyer and Desmond Jennings in good spots. I think this maybe my favorite spot to go after early with Longoria as a center piece to the stack.
I also believe that the Pirates are a stackable option today because Jungmann has had issues with batters on both sides of the plate as well. On top of that, he has issues with runners—allowing 18 stolen bases a year ago. My top target here is going to be Starling Marte followed by Andrew McCutchen and Gregory Polanco. If we don’t have many options at catcher, Cervelli is okay with me.
In tournaments, I do think the Cardinals bats will go under owned against Brandon Finnegan. Finnegan was great in his first outing, but I think that Piscotty, Holliday and Grichuk could cause some issues for the lefty today. In an early stack, there three are to consider with Piscotty and Grichuk being my two favorite as Holliday will carry a higher ownership following his game last night.
As lineups are released, I will tweet about my favorite plays.
Value Plays
Oswaldo Arcia $3,600
Javier Baez $3,600
Homer of the day
Kris Bryant—Early
If you have any questions, reach me on Twitter.
by JFerrie23 | Apr 15, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, MLB |
Today we have a massive 14 game slate that kicks off at 7:05 tonight. We get a ton of aces on the hill and they are all high priced, so picking the right matchups will be very important. In this, we will also be looking for value since the pitching is pretty expensive today and we want two top-five scoring starters in our lineups.
PITCHERS
It’s Kershaw day, and that means he is going to be the highest priced pitcher, and more than likely—the highest owned. Kershaw meets Bumgarner yet again tonight, but this time in Los Angeles. The total is set to just six runs with Kershaw as a -173 favorite. That is unbelievable, really. Kershaw has dominated the Giants over the course of his career, and if the Giants run out the lineup I imagine they do, Buster Posey is the only one with a wOBA greater than .350 off left-handed pitchers. Kershaw gets the plus matchups against Belt, Panik and Span at the top of the lineup. It also appears that the wind will be blowing in hard from center field today, which adds to the positive factors for Kershaw. The Giants have been pretty good about not striking out this season, but Kershaw is a strikeout artist. Last year he finished with a 36.6% strikeout rate at home. That is ridiculous. In their last matchup, Kershaw finished with 21 DK points, which is underperforming given the high salary. He is super safe for cash games and is the top option on the slate. In tournaments there are other options that will carry low ownerships.
If we are looking to save, we could dip down to Chris Sale at $12,200 against the Rays. Sale will be on the road in this matchup, where he is a -126 favorite over Jake Odorizzi. The total in this game is set to 6.5 with both offenses facing top arms. On the road last season, Sale finished with a 34.9% strikeout rate. The Rays haven’t seen much from the left side this season, but Sale will have the platoon matchup against Dickerson, Morrison, Miller and Kiermaier—who have been regulars in the Rays lineup this season. Even if they Guyer, Pearce, Desmond and Souza—which I believe they will, none of those guys strike fear in you. The Rays have been very aggressive at the plate this season, which could benefit Sale big time. It could allow for a high volume of swings and misses and getting deep into the game. As we saw with Kluber, Carrasco and Salazar who all got deep in games this past week against Tampa.
Carlos Martinez ($9,000) is a huge favorite in Vegas today at -180 against the Reds. Martinez will be at home and facing a Reds offense that is striking out in 22.3% of at bats against right-handed pitching this season. Along with that, the Reds are coming off a sweep at the hands of the Cubs and immediately hitting the road.  Martinez finished last season with a 24% strikeout rate so there is some strikeout upside for Martinez here. The Reds are also on the road, so the park isn’t playing in their favor either. With some strikeout upside here, Martinez could make a good pairing with a pitcher over $10,000.
Speaking of pitcher at $10,000—why don’t we give Zack Greinke a look today? I know he has been bad to start the season, but let’s not lose sight of how great he has been over the course of his career. Today Greinke gets the strikeout prone Padres, who are traveling back to the west coast from Philly where they were abused by right-handed pitchers. Away from Chase Field, Greinke gets a park upgrade for sure and a juicy matchup. He is currently a -132 favorite over James Shields with the total at 6.5 runs. Whenever I see this Padres lineup, I cannot get over how bad it is. They have been shutout in five of their ten games. People will be off Grienke to pay up for Kershaw, so in tournaments, I am a big fan of Greinke as he will carry a lower ownership with strikeout upside and facing the worst lineup in baseball to this point.
The value doesn’t end there either. Dallas Keuchel is another top-tier pitcher who has struggled in the early going, but we shouldn’t be as surprised since he carried big splits last season, too. He gets the Tigers, who are a tough offense. But if we look at Keuchel’s splits, it may give us some more confidence in the 2015 CY Young winner. In 2015, Keuchel had a .213 wOBA at home and .304 wOBA on the road. That is a pretty big jump. On top of that, he had 139 strikeouts to just 28 walks at home. When he was on the road, he had just 77 strikeouts to 23 walks. Not sure if he is getting some home cooking when in Houston, but those are some bigger splits. Keuchel is also a -175 favorite in this matchup as he faces Mike Pelfrey. He is sure to carry a lower ownership with all of these top-tier options.
On the other end of the Chris Sale matchup, I do like Jake Odorizzi—who will face the White Sox offense. The Sox are off to a pretty good start, but I don’t see much resistance for Odorizzi outside of Eaton and Abreu. The total is set that low for a reason, and it is because Odorizzi is pretty good. At home, Odorizzi has a 23% strikeout rate, which is better than his road rate. Along with that, he faces a lineup that finished 2015 with a 22.5% strikeout rate. He is strictly a tournament option for me, but he is in a good spot.
Consider Garrett Richards against the Twins at just $9,300. The Twins have been dreadful this season and Richards owns a 20.4% strikeout rate. He isn’t my favorite play and is strictly tournaments for me, but the Twins are striking out in 31.7% of at bats against right-handed pitchers thus far.
Recap:
Cash: Kershaw, Sale, Martinez, Greinke; Bumgarner (didn’t mention, but good matchup)
Tournament: Keuchel, Odorrizi, Richards
STACKS
I took some extra time today to breakdown my top stacks and I just couldn’t get past the Pirates at home against Jimmy Nelson. While Nelson gets a park boost, he is going to have to deal with some good bats and plus runners. John Jaso should lead off and he is a great option as he owns .358 wOBA against righties and Nelson allows a .376 wOBA to lefties a year ago. Andrew McCutchen Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco are all great plays here as they can contribute against Nelson in multiple ways. Polanco has the platoon, which gives him a slight boost for me—but he and Marte both run and Nelson allowed 24 stolen bases last season with an 80% success rate. He is a prime stolen base target. The total here is set to 7.5 and I like this spot for the Pirates bats with Jaso and Polanco being my two favorite.
The Orioles have been red hot, but hit the road and saw Cole Hamels—who held them in check for the most part. Tonight the Orioles get a weaker left-handed pitcher in Martin Perez. That will bring interest to Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado, Chris Davis and Nolan Reimold. Trumbo has a .364 wOBA against lefties to go along with a .237 ISO. Chris Davis is also in the .200 ISO club against lefties despite being left-handed. From early reports, the wind is blowing in, but that doesn’t concern me too much here as the Orioles have some thump and go against a pitcher with a low strikeout rate.
We can go back to the Astros, who looked horrible yesterday and were an early favorite target for me. I was dead wrong—but they do get a better matchup against Mike Pelfrey tonight. Colby Rasmus has to be a top option with an ISO over .200 and reaching base in each game this season. Preston Tucker and Carlos Correa are two of my other favorite options here as they both have plus-ISO numbers to go along with a good wOBA against right-handed pitchers. I imagine it will be difficult to fit Correa into lineups if you spend up, but Tucker and Rasmus will be affordable options.
This Yankees/Mariners game feels sneaky to me as both pitchers aren’t in phenomenal spots. The Mariners get a big park upgrade coming to New York and have some platoon matchups that could help them out. I’m a Luis Severino fan, but he could end up getting Adam Lind, Robinson Cano and Seth Smith tonight—who all hit right-handed pitching well. Along with those three, Nelson Cruz has hit both lefties and righties well and has plus-power in a small park.
On the other side, we get the Yankees against Nathan Karns, who barely won the fifth starter job. The Yankees will have Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner and Carlos Beltran hitting from the left side and they are all good options here. Ellsbury and Gardner have stolen base upside as Karns allowed 17 of them last season on 77% success rate. The Yankees are also a home favorite and Karns gets a park downgrade in New York.
I would consider a mini-stack in the Padres game as James Shields loves giving up home runs and David Peralta, Jake Lamb and Paul Goldschmidt all have very good wOBA’s with Peralta and Goldschmidt carrying ISO’s greater than .200 against right-handed pitchers.
Value Plays
Seth Smith ($3,300)
Nomar Mazara ($3,300)
Nolan Reimold ($3,100)
Kike Hernandez ($2,700) 2B eligible
Homer of the day
Justin Bour vs. Williams Perez
Justin Smoak vs. Rick Porcello (if he plays)
If you have any questions, reach me on Twitter.
by JFerrie23 | Apr 14, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, MLB |
Today we have a split slate with seven games early and five late. Pitching looks pretty good today and there should be some offense. The majority of people will be looking to attack Coors again today, which isn’t a bad idea considering the number of runs that have been scored in that park over the last two weeks. First let’s dive into our pitchers today.
PITCHERS
The early slate has three prime arms scheduled in as of right now with Chris Archer, Stephen Strasburg and Gerrit Cole. Strasburg has not been announced the starter, but they may just push him back a day. On DraftKings, he is currently listed as the pitcher, but it may end up being Joe Ross. Either way, my top arm early is Chris Archer.
Archer comes into this matchup with the Indians as a -114 favorite in Vegas. The total is set to just seven runs, so those both favor Archer. The Indians offense looked decent yesterday, but they’ll get a true ace today with massive strikeout upside. Archer owns a 29% strikeout rate and runs into a team with a 29.2% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters in the early going. Along with that, the Indians have a .302 wOBA against right-handed pitchers and an OPS of just .685. That isn’t much to fear. The Indians will run out five left-handed bats (three switch) against Archer today. Last year Archer limited left-handed bats to a .265 wOBA while allowing a .278 wOBA to righties. Archer is a ground ball pitcher (when ball is in play) and Lindor, Santana and Kipnis—who own the top-3 wOBA’s versus righties in the Indian lineup all have high ground ball rates, too. No bat in their lineup has an ISO greater than .200. I think Archer is the top option early.
The next pitcher, who may go lower owned in tournaments, is Gerrit Cole at $10,500. Cole saves you about $900, but gets the more difficult matchup against the Tigers offense. The interesting part with Cole is that he allows a higher wOBA to same-handed hitters. Today he will see Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton and J.D Martinez—who all own a wOBA greater than .350 against right-handed pitching. Surprisingly, Upton and Martinez both have an ISO greater than .200 against right-handed pitchers, too. Cole is a ground ball pitcher and these bats looking to put the ball in the air, according to their batted ball rates. Around game time it will be about 60 degrees with a slight wind in from left field. Even with that, I still don’t mind the Tigers bats in a tournament. Cole has strikeout upside for sure—posting a 24.3% strikeout rate a year ago, and running into a team with a 28.4% rate this year. Even with that, I am comfortable fading Cole today. I did it to Jose Fernandez the other day, and I’ll do it with Cole today; he is my fade of the day.
The San Diego Padres offense has been dreadful this season. Today they’ll get right-handed pitcher Vincent Velasquez, who dominated the Mets in his first outing of the season. Today, Velasquez will face the Padres, who have struck out in 26.4% of their at bats against right-handed pitchers. He is the early favorite in this contest, and the strikeout upside really sets him apart among the lower pitchers. He could easily put up 20-25 DraftKings points and walk away with the win today. The Padres won’t have Matt Kemp in their lineup and Melvin Upton Jr. is hitting cleanup. I wouldn’t overthink this. Play Velasquez.
STACKS
As I stated in my piece about Gerrit Cole, there are some batter trends that could favor the Tigers in that matchup. Today their 2 through 4 hitters all own a wOBA greater than .350 against right-handed pitching. Cole has some nasty stuff, but he can be wild at times, which could lead to some extra runners and scoring opportunities. This isn’t my favorite stack early, but it will sure be low owned with Coors on the slate. Cole has some splits that favor right-handed batters, so I think all three of the guys mentioned before (Upton, Cabrera and Martinez) are viable in tournaments. At just $3,700, J.D Martinez is my favorite of the three batters.
We are heading back to Coors, which more than likely has some offense in store for us today. The total on this game is set to 11.5, which is tied with the highest we have seen this season. This matchup features Matt Cain and Jorge De La Rosa, who at one time were front-line type (depending on team) starters. At their current state, they are more like fourth to fifth starter types, who can be attacked—especially at Coors. For the Giants, we have to look at Buster Posey if he returns to the lineup. Posey owns a .366 wOBA against left-handed pitchers, which is the highest of their regulars. Along with that, De La Rosa allowed a .328 wOBA to righties while holding lefties at just .293. At home, De La Rosa allowed a .354 wOBA a season ago, which included a .358 wOBA to right-handed hitters.
On the other end of this we see Matt Cain, and he is going to be targeted, too. We should be looking directly at Carlos Gonzalez and Nolan Arenado yet again today. Arenado went deep twice last night, and really only hits bombs of righties. Carlos Gonzalez probably has the best matchup here as Cain allowed a .404 wOBA to lefties last season and Gonzalez had a .415 wOBA against righties. With Coors on the slate, we will need to find some value. How about Ben Paulsen at $3,600? Paulsen has the split of Cain against lefties in his favor and owns a .349 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. He will more than likely hit sixth or seventh for the Rockies today and is at a discount. Cain also allows more fly balls than ground balls, so Paulsen’s 15% HR to fly ball rate could be effective today.
I really like the St. Louis Cardinals as a small stackable option early. The Cards will face Wily Peralta, who has been beat up pretty bad in his first two starts of the season. Some believe that Miller Park is the cause of Peralta’s issues, but that just isn’t true. On the road last season, Peralta allowed a .376 wOBA in 40 innings of work. Even if we go back to 2014, Peralta still allowed a higher wOBA on the road than at home, including getting demolished by left-handed hitters. Matt Carpenter and Jeremy Hazelbacker will be at the top of the Cards lineup creating some trouble. That puts Matt Holliday, Brandon Moss (clean-up today) and Randal Grichuk with some upside here. Of those three, I think that Grichuk is my favorite option as he owns a .381 wOBA against right-handed pitchers and Peralta still struggles against righties.
When the late slate lineups come out, I will tweet my top plays there. Right now, I am leaning toward the Astros as my top stack.
Homer of the day (Early)
Carlos Gonzalez and Maikel Franco
If you have any questions, reach me on Twitter!
Best of luck!
by JFerrie23 | Apr 13, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, MLB |
PITCHERS
Starting at the top today, my number one option is Carlos Carrasco ($11,900) against the Rays. Similar to Kluber just a night ago, Carrasco will face an offense that doesn’t have too much fire power. Yes, they got to the bullpen and opened the game up, but they didn’t hit Kluber much and get a guy who is just as tough tonight. The right hander will face a Rays team striking out over 25% against right-handed pitchers this season, so the strikeout upside is present. Along with that, Carrasco has been better away from home, limiting opponents to a .230 wOBA away from Progressive Field. Along with the drop in wOBA is an uptick in strikeout rate. On the road, Carrasco finished 2015 with a 32.1% strikeout rate compared to a respectable 26.7% at home. While we are mentioning the park, Carrasco gets an upgrade in the park factor tonight, too. The total in this game is set at seven, and Vegas has Carrasco as a slight -105 road favorite over Drew Smyly. The Rays have released a lineup today and it will feature Morrison, Dickerson and Miller in the top-6 batters. Carrasco favored well on both sides of the plate last season, so I am not overly concerned here. The win is not a lock, and Vegas agrees, but Carrasco is my top cash option for sure.
Right on the other side of this matchup is Drew Smyly ($10,400) and he is in a really good spot, too. Smyly was his teammate and fellow southpaw throw seven strong innings against the Indians last night. The Indians enter tonight with a 26% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers in over 100 plate appearances this season. Smaller sample, yes, but they also struck out 22.7% of the time last season. As a team, Cleveland finished 2015 with a .292 wOBA against left-handed pitching, which leaves Smyly in a good spot here. As stated above, he is a small underdog with a low total—which is currently set at 7. We’re always looking for strikeout upside, and Smyly has it at home—where he finished with a 31.8% strikeout rate in his brief time last year. For his career, he is closer to a 24% strikeout rate at home, which is slightly better than his road rate. It looks like the Indians will go right-handed heavy, so it eliminates some same-handed issues. Overall, I don’t fear the power of this Cleveland team, so Smyly is a good option and saves you $1,500.
How about giving Jerad Eickhoff a look tonight at $7,900? I think this is an interesting spot for Eickhoff as Aaron Nola and Charlie Morton have caused some issues for the Padres the last few nights. Outside of their stint at Coors, this San Diego offense has been brutal. This season they are striking out just about 25% of the time against right-handed pitchers. Yes, they will get Wil Myers back in their lineup, but he hasn’t hit too much outside of Coors. The Padres hit left-handers much better and well, Eickhoff won’t be coming from that side, so this could be trouble yet again. He is a favorite in this matchup tonight and has strikeout upside, finishing with a 24.1% rate last year—which includes a 30.4% strikeout rate against righties last season.
STACKS
There are a ton of high totals on the board tonight, and yet again we get Coors Field. The total for the Giants-Rockies is currently set at 11.5 in a matchup of Jake Peavy and Jordan Lyles. A year ago, Peavy allowed fly balls on 45% of balls in play. On a warm night at Coors Field, that could cause some issues. I said to stack the Rockies last night, and I will go back to that well tonight. I think Carlos Gonzalez ($4,800) is an elite play, along with Nolan Arenado ($4,900). These two could be easier to fit tonight with the cheaper pitching at the top, so it will be about who they’re paired with. Charlie Blackmon seems to be going under owned, but has power and stolen base upside in this matchup. Posey will most likely be behind the plate and he is great—but Peavy allowed base runners to go 9 of 10 against him last season. Meanwhile Blackmon swiped 43 bags for the Rockies. He presents a combination of upside.
Once again the Red Sox and Orioles have the second highest total on the slate, and wow has there been some power at Fenway this week. The Red Sox are notoriously better at home than they are on the road, and they get another shot to produce tonight. Jimenez allows a higher wOBa to right-handed hitters (.333) than left-handed (.308), so some of the righties stand out here. First off, I am a huge Mookie Betts guy and if you’ve watched, you know why I am. Betts leads off and has pop, which is intriguing. To add to that, Jimenez allowed 22 stolen bases last season, which is the most of any pitcher on this slate. While he slide steps (kind of), he has a long and deliberate delivery that allows base runners the opportunity to advance. Following Mookie, I think Pedroia is a solid play. He has good BvP numbers against Jimenez in a decent 27 PA sample. While I don’t want to pay up at second often, I would if I were to stack Boston. I would also consider Xander Bogaerts in this stack, but again, not huge on paying up at SS. I do think Boston puts up some good numbers tonight, and I like their right-handed bats quite a bit here.
My sneaky stack of the day is the Atlanta Braves against the Washington Nationals. There is a light wind in Washington and it is much warmer than yesterday. If you didn’t know, Stephen Strasburg has been scratched tonight with illness. Tanner Roark will be taking his place and the Braves get a good matchup here. Roark is one of my bottom-5 pitchers today and has allowed a .369 wOBA to left-handed batters. He isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher, so there is sure to be some contact allowed in this matchup. I think that Mallex Smith ($3,300) is a super interesting play today. He doesn’t have too much pop, but he will run you wild. If he puts a ball in the gap, he is getting a double EASY! Freddie Freeman, A.J Pierzynski and Kelly Johnson are my three other favorites in this stack with Freeman and Pierzynski hitting Roark well in their career (Johnson is 0-1 vs. Roark). In a tournament, this stack is going to go so far under owned and could present some real issues. Plus, the Mallex Smith, Pierzynski and Kelly Johnson are $3,300 or less, so it won’t hurt you to stack. It may actually create some more room if you want to pay up for the two stacks above this.
Value Plays
A.J Pierzynski ($3,000)—We punt catcher a lot and he has a .343 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. Tanner Roark has a .369 wOBA against left-handed hitters. In their 8 career matchups, Pierzynski is 6 for 7 with a double and two home runs. He is hitting sixth.
Kelly Johnson ($2,800)—As I stated above, we don’t always like to pay up for second base, but Johnson fits that role tonight. Last year he hit 13 of his 14 home runs of right-handed pitchers and finished with a .326 wOBA against them. He is so unbelievably cheap and hitting fifth. Great spot.
Homer of the day
Mookie Betts vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
If you have any questions, reach me on Twitter @JFerrie23!
Best of luck!
by JFerrie23 | Apr 12, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, MLB |
We finally have our first heavy night slate with ten games on the docket. Lineup construction is going to be important, along with finding our value plays. On nights where I can analyze the lineups before they come out, I will look to include a few value plays for the night at the end of the stacks. I am also going to predict my player to homer each night. With that said, let’s dive into this ten game slate.
PITCHERS
The night is going to start with Jose Fernandez ($11,900) going to New York to face the Mets. Last night the Marlins offense hit the ball all over the park, and if they do that tonight they’ll be sitting pretty with their ace on the hill. However, Fernandez will be facing Noah Syndergaard tonight, who is an elite young arm. Fernandez is a 132 underdog on the road in a game with the total set at just six runs. Fernandez will face a Mets lineup featuring a 24.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in the early going. This shouldn’t be a surprise as the Mets struck out in 22.5% of at bats against righties last year. The Mets also see a drop off in their wOBA against right-handed pitchers, falling from .307 against lefties to .279 versus righties. My biggest concern with Fernandez in this matchup are his splits between lefties and righties. In 2015, Fernandez allowed a .373 wOBA to left-handed batters (faced 122). In 2014, Fernandez allowed a .301 wOBA to lefties while limiting right-handed bats to just a .172 wOBA. That is a pretty big split and the Mets maybe onto something. The strikeout upside for Fernandez is always there, but I think he may be my fade of the night. Another interesting piece to this fade is that Fernandez’s wOBA numbers also jump on the road. For his career, Fernandez has allowed a .221 wOBA at home and .282 on the road. Against lefties, he allows a home wOBA of .250 and a .330 on the road. He is an elite arm, but these splits have me worried. Also the win is no lock against Syndergaard.
On the other end of this, Noah Snydergaard ($10,400) will face a Marlins offense that destroyed Steven Matz a night ago. Four of the top-six bats in the Marlins order tonight will be left-handed, and similar to Fernandez, they hit him better. Now the split isn’t as concerning as both lefties and righties have a sub-.300 wOBA against Syndegaard. He is the favorite in this game, and the total is just six runs, so I would go with him over Fernandez in this one. The Marlins have not struck out too much in the early going, but then again, they haven’t seen 98-100mph pitching that often. Interestingly enough, Syndergaard saw big home/road splits in 2015, allowing a .239 wOBA at home and .323 on the road. He was dominant in his first outing of the season and comes into this one with a 27.5% strikeout rate. If I am paying up, I’ll take for one of these two, I go Snydergaard.
Corey Kluber ($12,200) is going to a popular option on the road against the Rays, who have been super aggressive at the plate this season. Kluber comes into this matchup as a -132 favorite in a game with a total set at seven. The Rays have a 25.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in the early going, and Kluber is most certainly a pitcher who can get 10+ strikeouts in a game. Like most, Kluber goes give up a higher wOBA to left-handed bats, and the Rays have four in their lineup tonight. I don’t fear Logan Morrison or Brad Miller for the most part here, but Dickerson is always a problem. However, even he has a 21% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. Kluber does get a park boost as Progressive field has been a pretty good run producing park the last few years. I think Kluber is safe in all formats, but pairing him with either Fernandez or Syndergaard creates some roster construction issues.
The bargain pitcher of the night for me is Wade Miley ($8,200). Do I feel really comfortable about this? No. Not at all, but I do have a few numbers that may support Miley here as a tournament option. First off, the Rangers have a ton of left-handed bats in their lineup, like Fielder, Moreland, Mazara and Odor. Miley will be coming at them from the same side and gets a park boost from their last matchup. The Rangers have a small sample of 72 PA’s against lefties this season, but 27.8% of those ended with a strikeout. Small sample, no doubt, but we have to find some savings. The Texas offense also sees a drop in production on the road, and yes, they put up some numbers last night, but that was Odor and Mazara doing a large chunk of the damage. He is going to be super low owned and is the Vegas favorite right now. Depending on their lineup structure, I think Miley could be in a decent spot here.
STACKS
The most popular stack of the night is going to be the Giants/Rockies game at Coors field, but I think more people will lean toward the Giants stack because of the Samardzija name value. I personally think the Rockies are going to hit Samardzija around tonight because he isn’t the same pitcher the Cubs traded to Oakland when he threw against these Rockies in the N.L. First off, throw the BvP number out the window for Carlos Gonzalez and Nolan Arenado. They are elite plays tonight. Samardzija has dipped in his strikeout rate over the past two season and is allowing nearly 40% fly balls. In Coors, that spells trouble. CarGo and Arenado both have homerun to fly balls percentages greater than 20% against right-handed pitching. They also both own wOBA’s over .380 versus righties and ISO power totals over .300. That is elite power. You may need to dip down on pitching to get these two, but I think they both could do some serious damage tonight in a game that features the highest total on the board at 11 runs. If I could only fit one, I would lean toward Gonzalez at $4,600.
The Yankees are going to go under the radar as a stackable option in Toronto. They will be facing Aaron Sanchez, who pitched very well against the Rays to open the season. Sanchez will throw a ton of pitchers, and this veteran Yankee team may just be in the spot to wait him out and draw walks which lead to runs. The Yankees just released their lineup and it features seven left-handed bats (three switch-hitters). In the middle of that order in Mark Teixeira, who is my top option on the Yankees tonight. Tex has a .399 wOBA against right-handed pitchers to go along with a .339 ISO. Along with that he has a 26% home run to fly ball rate in a run producing environment in Toronto. In his early career, Sanchez has been more susceptible to home runs from lefties. While he is much more of a ground ball type, he throws a power sinker in the mid 90’s, which if it is left up could be an issue. The total in this game is eight and it could easily exceed that. I like Tex and Gardner at the top, with some interest in Beltran.
How about stacking the Red Sox today? Coming off that heart breaker yesterday, the Sox look to get back to the win column today against Mike Wright. In 2015, Wright allowed a .361 wOBA to right-handed hitters and .392 to left-handed hitters and will face some big bats tonight at Fenway. All weather reports have the wind blowing out to right-field, which may fuel a few extra base hits for those lefties, too. Boston will have David Ortiz and Travis Shaw as their lone lefties in the top-six in the order. If you want to go deeper and maybe punt second base, Brock Holt gets the nod in left and has that eligibility. I think this game will go over the 9 run total that has been put on it. With Coors on the slate, this game is sure to go under owned. If you want a full game stack, Joey Rickard is leading off again at just 3.2K. Chris Davis, Matt Wieters and Pedro Alvarez all could benefit from the short porch in right-field, too.
Value Plays
Lineup Notes
Jeff Francoeur $2,500 hitting 5th against the Nationals Gio Gonzalaez; He is 10/25 with four extra base hits in his career versus Gonzalez.
Brett Wallace ($3,100) hitting 4th against the Phillies Charlie Morton; Wallace has a .404 wOBA versus right-handed pitchers to go along with a .261 ISO. Charlie Morton allowed a .382 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season, plus an 18.2% home run to fly ball rate.
Homer of the Day
Carlos Gonzalez vs. Jeff Samardzija
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