by KendoVT | Apr 4, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA |
Introduction
The first Major of the year is finally upon us as the top golfers in the world ascend to Augusta National Golf Club to play The Masters. Many memorable moments have happened here over the years from Jack Nicklaus’ last Major win, Greg Norman choking away a few victories, Freddy Couples keeping his ball dry on hole 12, Tiger’s miraculous chip in on 16, and Jordan Spieth’s first Major win last year. There will be plenty of excitement for both golf fans and DFS players. Speaking of DFS, DraftKings will be crowning their first PGA DFS millionaire of the year, so this is a huge week. Let’s get on to it.
Strategy
Only the Top 50 golfers and golfers within ten strokes of the lead after the second round will make the cut. This sounds like it will make for a tough week but only around 90 golfers are playing The Masters this year, so less than half the golfers will miss the weekend. Because of this, being more aggressive in your approach to picking golfers for your DraftKings team could be the way to go, even in cash games. The high priced studs usually perform well so having a couple of 10k and up guys could be a good strategy to have in cash games. Going with this approach means that you are going to have to find at least a couple of under 7k golfers who will make the cut and over perform. Stars and scrubs lineups are usually reserved for GPP play but with this field, finding good golfers under 7k is a bit easier and using the stars and scrubs approach in cash games could be the right move. When it comes to GPP lineups you are going to need four to five guys in the Top 10, the winner, and all six make the cut to have a chance at taking these huge GPPs down this week. Picking “cut makers” should be avoided when making GPP lineups and finding value plays with a lot of upside and maybe more risk is going to be a good way to build your GPP lineups.
Course Description
Augusta National Golf Club is a 7,435 yard par 72 with four par 3s and four par 5s. Off the tee golfers will see tree lined fairways with above average width, bunkers in landing areas, and light-ish rough. The rough length has grown through the years but it is not that troublesome. The fairways should be playing firm and has some slope. Water will also be in play on a few holes. On approach shots golfers will see greens that are above average in size but that is misleading. There are so many slopes and contours on the greens that they will be playing much smaller. Golfers will have small aiming points on approach shots to actually get the ball close. Most greens are shaped like a bowl along the edges and have little to no rough surrounding them so many balls will be left in collection areas around the greens which are always tough to get it up and down from because of the firmness and quickness of the greens. The greens use bent grass and will be fast with a stimpmeter rating of 13.5 or greater. Bunkers and collection areas surround almost every green with water surrounding a few holes.
Looking at the course description above and trends for the course the last few years, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats, current form, and course history to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups this week.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P) which is a key stat every week. Since I am writing this on Sunday night the stats I’m using do not take into account the Shell Houston Open.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G):
SG:T2G is an important stat every week but based on trends it seems even more important this week at The Masters. In the last 12 years at Augusta National, 36/42 (86%!!!) golfers that finished inside the Top 3 have finished inside the Top 65 in SG:T2G for the specific year they finished Top 3. 30/42 of these same golfers finished inside the Top 50 in SG:T2G for the specific year they were in the Top 3. This correlates with the fact that the higher priced golfers usually perform well here because the best golfers in the world usually have very strong tee to green games.
Birdie or Better % (BoB):
Since 2000 38/55 golfers that finished Top 3 or better were inside the Top 60 in this stat for the respective year they finished Top 3. This is not the US Open. A lot of birdies will need to be made to compete.
Good Drive % (GD%) with a focus on Driving Distance (DD)
GD% combines drives in the fairway with greens in regulation on missed fairways. I like this stat on courses where hitting the green is tough. Augusta definitely falls into that category. Since the lengthening of the course about a decade ago, bombers tend to have an advantage here and that should not change this week.
Par 5 Scoring (P5):
The par 5s at Augusta are not easy by any means but eagle and birdie opportunities should still be prevalent. Since 2000 38/55 golfers that finished Top 3 were inside the Top 60 in par 5 scoring for the specific year they finished Top 3. Looking at trends, par 4 scoring (P4) seems important as well, so I will be peaking at those stats also.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
*** Raphael Cabrera-Bello will be in the field at The Masters. He has not yet been added to the list of players on DraftKings as I’m writing this on Sunday evening. He is playing the best golf of his life right now and since he is a late add, his ownership might not be that high. I definitely could be wrong about this but I’m hoping that I’m right because I will be using him at any price.
Adam Scott ($11,900):
Scott comes in as my #1 ranked golfer overall and he’s #1 by a wide margin. His current form is great, his course history is great, and his key stats are far superior than anyone else in the field. He’s 2nd in SG:T2G, 1st in BoB, 1st in P5, 11th in DD, 6th in GD%, and 44th in SG:P. Scott and Jason Day are my two favorites to win and both will be very highly owned. I don’t care, I’ll be using a bunch of both these golfers. (GPP and cash)
Jason Day ($11,600):
Day is the only golfer who can match Adam Scott in current form. These two guys are playing better golf than anyone else for the last few weeks. He has a couple of Top 3 finishes here in the past and I would not be surprised at all if he was wearing the Green Jacket on Sunday. There were reports of him having the flu this week but I won’t be paying too much attention to that since he has proven he can still win even at less than 100%. (GPP and cash)
Phil Mickleson ($10,500):
All of these first three golfers should be very highly owned but I don’t care. Using 3-4 chalk plays and differentiating yourself in the lower price ranges could be the play this week in GPPs. Phil has been playing some of his best golf in years and all his tweaks and changes in his game the last 6 months have seemed to work. It’s time for all that hard work to pay off and do well in a Major. His key stats are solid. He’s 6th in SG:T2G, 10th in BoB, 11th in P5, and 12th in SG:P. Phil is also an elite scrambler and we’ve already seen his skills around Augusta in the past. He’s a multiple winner here, has shot under par in 18/26 rounds this year, and has three Top 5s and five Top 13s in seven events. He really loves playing Majors and usually brings his A game to Augusta, especially if his current form is good, which it is. (GPP only and cash)
Justin Rose ($9,900):
Now we start getting to some golfers in this price range that I like a lot and think will be under owned. I think Rose will fit that bill. He hasn’t had the recent success like the other guys in this high end range and I think recency bias will lower his ownership. He actually comes in as my #2 golfer overall this week. He has had a solid season so far with just 1 MC and no finishes lower than 17th in his other 6 events. He finished 2nd last year at The Masters and has great stats for the course. He’s 9th in SG:T2G, 16th in BoB, 5th in P5, 16th in DD, and 6th in GD%. He has stated in interviews that he will be focusing his game for Major play and I think if his putter gets hot, he has a good chance at a victory this week. (GPP and cash)
Charl Schwartzel ($9,400):
Schwartzel won a couple weeks ago at the Valspar Championship and that’s helpful this week since the last two Masters winners had a win before they won the Green Jacket. He is a former winner here and with his game trending up and his possible low ownership, I like him as a GPP play this week. He could be last year’s Justin Rose who was only 4% owned in the Milly Maker and finished 2nd. (GPP only)
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Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
by KendoVT | Mar 29, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA |
Shell Houston Open
Analysis and write-up provided by KendoVT. Don’t forget to scroll to the bottom to see each player’s tournament history.
Course Description
The final Tour stop for golfers before The Masters takes place from The Golf Club of Houston (GCOH) in Humble, Texas. This is the last chance for golfers not already in the field next week to get a shot at playing Augusta. The winner will get an automatic birth into the The Masters. GCOH does a good job mimicking Augusta National so many golfers come here to get in some practice before the big tournament next week. The Tournament Course at GCOH is a 7,441 yard par 72 with four par 3s and four par 5s. Off the tee golfers will see average width fairways with light rough, bunkers in the right (or wrong) places, and water on 10 holes. The greens use bent grass with a little bit of bermuda and ryegrass as well. They are above average in size and there is little to no rough surrounding them but like Augusta National there will be tightly cut shaved banks that lead to collection areas and bunkers. The greens have a little slope but are much flatter than what the golfers will see next week. They usually play firm and fast with a stimpmeter reading of 13.5, though if it rains they will play much softer and slower. Weather can play a factor as windy conditions are the norm and rain can make this course play really long. As of now it looks like it will be rainy on Thursday with light winds and it will be very windy on Friday. Since winds here usually pick up as the day moves on, looking at golfers who play the PM/AM wave this week could be to your benefit. Check the weather forecast as the week goes on to make your final decisions. Another thing you should probably look for are golfers that play a natural draw as much of the course favors a right to left ball flight.
Looking at the course description above and trends for the course the last few years, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats, current form, and course history to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups this week.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P) and Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G), which are key stats every week.
Driving Distance (DD):
The course plays long and it looks like rain is in the forecast for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, which will make the course much slower and much longer. Since the rough around the fairways are not that penalizing, hitting it a mile out there will be to a golfers benefit this week, especially if the forecast is correct and it rains the next few days on the course. I would not rule out shorter hitters that hit their long irons well but if the course is playing as soft as the weather projects it to, it could be tough for the shorter hitters to compete.
Birdie or Better % (BoB):
Even though the course tries to mimic Augusta National, there are a lot more birdie opportunities here at GCOH. Golfers will need over 20 birdies this week to contend. In the last nine years 22/31 golfers that finished Top 3 or better were inside the Top 75 in this stat for the specific year they finished Top 3.
Par 5 scoring (P5):
The par 5s are long but golfers will still need to take advantage of them to be able to contend. In the last 9 years 22/31 golfers that finished Top 3 or better were inside the Top 80 in this stat for that specific year.
Proximity from 200 yards plus (Prox200+) and Proximity from 150-175 yards (Prox150):
Over 30% of all approach shots at GCOH in the last nine years has come from 200 yards or more and over 20% of all approach shots have come from 150-175 yards. That means around 50% of all approaches to the green will be coming from these two distances. Finding a golfer who is strong at both of these distances will give you a leg up against everyone else.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
Ricky Fowler ($11,000):
Fowler has been having a splendid year with five Top 10s in his last six events played. He also comes in as my #1 ranked golfer this week when only taking stats into account. He’s 8th in SG:T2G, 9th in BoB, 1st in P5, 29th in DD, and 18th in Prox150. He hasn’t played too well here in the past which makes me a little hesitant to use him in cash games at his price but a victory is coming for him this year soon and this could be the week. (GPP only)
Henrik Stenson ($10,800):
Stenson rarely hits driver off the tee which would make people think he is at a disadvantage this week but he is supremely accurate with his three wood and still hits it close to 300 yards with that club. He hits his long irons well and always makes the cut. If he can get his putter going he can make some noise. He has made all four of his cuts at GCOH and has two Top 3 finishes here in the past. I also think he might be slightly under owned because he is stuck in between Fowler, DJ, and Mickleson in price. He is my #2 ranked golfer overall this week. (GPP and cash)
Dustin Johnson ($10,700):
DJ comes in as my #1 golfer overall this week. He hits it a mile and has great stats for the course. He has been playing fairly well this year with five Top 15 finishes in seven events. His course history here is a little checkered so I won’t be using him in cash lineups but he will be in many of my GPP lineups. (GPP only)
Phil Mickleson ($10,500):
Lefty is my #3 ranked golfer overall this week. He has had a solid season so far with four Top 11s in six events. He has made his last six cuts at GCOH with five Top 17s and a victory here 5 years ago. His stats for the course are great. He’s 6th in SG:T2G, 11th in BoB, 11th in P5, 41st in DD, 14th in SG:P, and 68th in Prox150. It’ is Phil and he can be volatile on occasion but his form looks good and his new putting technique looks solid, so I still feel comfortable using him in cash lineups this week. (GPP and cash)
JB Holmes ($9,700):
Holmes is the defending champion at this event and loves this course. He has made his last five cuts here at GCOH with FOUR Top 12 finishes. He hits the ball a mile and has great Proximity stats from both 150-175 yards and 200+ yards. I like his price a lot and he will be a staple in my cash lineup. (GPP and cash)
Brooks Koepka ($9,300):
Koepka is another long driver of the ball and like I stated before that should be very helpful this week especially if the conditions are soft because of the rain. He also makes a ton of birdies which is always helpful with the DraftKings scoring. (GPP only)
Jimmy Walker ($9,200):
Walker has been having a great season so far. He has SIX Top 13 finishes in nine events and has made his last five cuts at GCOH. He’s 18th in SG:T2G, 15th in BoB, 3rd in P5, 40th in DD, 36th in SG:P, and 15th in Prox150. He hasn’t finished too highly here in the past but I think this year could be the year where he does well. (GPP and cash)
Mid Level Golfers ($7000-$8900)
Charles Howell III ($8,900):
CH3’s high price tag worries me a bit but he has been one of the most consistent golfers out there this season. He has made 12/13 cuts this year with NINE Top 25 finishes. His stats are well above average and he has good course history at GCOH. (GPP and cash)
Ryan Palmer ($8,200):
Palmer is a Texas native who plays well in the wind. He is my #8 ranked golfer stat wise this week. He’s 47th in SG:T2G, 27th in BoB, 4th in P5, 8th in DD, 71st in Prox150, and 57th in Prox200+. He has made 8/9 cuts this year and finished 7th his last time out at GCOH. (GPP and cash)
Tony Finau ($8,100):
Finau is coming off a victory last week at the Puerto Rico Open which a lot of the time means he’s in for a down week. I don’t think that this is going to be the case for Tony. Even though he won last week he still has not qualified for The Masters and I think that will be a big motivation for him. Couple that with his high confidence because of the victory, I think he can make noise this week. He hits it a mile, makes a ton of birdies, and is accurate from 200 plus yards. (GPP only)
Cameron Tringale ($8,000):
Stat wise, Tringale is just average but he is the definition of a course horse this week. In his last four starts at GCOH he has finished 5th, 4th, 16th, and 8th. He is a slightly risky play because he has only made 6/10 cuts this year but he has a good chance of finishing high on the leaderboard this week. (GPP only)
Scott Brown ($7,900):
Brown has been playing some of the best golf of his career since the birth of his new baby. He has made the cut in his last five events and has THREE Top 10 finishes in that same span. I think he will make the cut and has a chance at a high finish. (GPP and cash)
Kevin Chappell ($7,800):
Chappell comes in as the #5 ranked golfer overall for me this week. He finished 2nd at Bay Hill and if you watched the telecast the commentators were really high on him. They stated that a lot of Tour players think that he has the game to be a multiple winner on Tour. These guys have more information on golfers than we will ever have and I will be taking their advice. His stats for the course combined with the information from the Golf Channel commentators leads me to believe that this could be his week. He’s 25th in SG:T2G, 63rd in BoB, 77th in P5, 46th in DD, 37th in Prox150, and 34th in Prox200+. He might be my highest owned golfer in GPPs this week. (GPP only)
Steve Stricker ($7,700):
Stricker’s game has been trending up the last few weeks. He doesn’t play much but he finished 11th at Riviera and 7th at the Valspar. He has made 8/9 cuts at GCOH with FOUR Top 10s. His stats are not the best but he is an elite putter and his experience here should help. Even though he has only made 50% of his cuts this year, I still think he is a safe bet to make the cut this week. (GPP and cash)
Brendan Steele ($7,400):
Steele is my #2 ranked golfer when just looking at stats for the course. He’s 31st in SG:T2G, 36th in BoB, 21st in P5, 22nd in DD, 37th in Prox150, and 38th in Prox200+. He has made all eight of his cuts this calendar year and I love his price tag. (GPP and cash)
Gary Woodland ($7,300):
Woodland is another bomber that has good stats for the course. He’s 20th in SG:T2G, 17th in P5, 2nd in DD, 8th in Prox150, and 62nd in Prox200+. I like his price and I think his length will be very helpful if the course plays longer because of rain. (GPP only)
Patrick Rodgers ($7,300):
Rodgers seems to have righted the ship after a month long stretch of poor play. He finished 21st last week in Puerto Rico which loses its luster a little bit because of the weak field but he finished 20th the week before at Bay Hill which was a very strong field. He’s a long hitter who plays par 5s well and is accurate from 200 yards plus. (GPP only)
Low End Value Picks ($5000-$6900)
Kyle Reifers ($6,900):
Reifers has been playing well recently making four of his last five cuts on Tour and has good course history here with an 11th and 21st place finish in his two appearances here. His stats are just average but he does play par 5s well. (GPP only)
Alex Cejka ($6,800):
It looks like Cejka is over his hand injury and has played well recently making his last three cuts on Tour. His stats for the course are just average but his scoring stats are great. He’s 40nd in SG:T2G, 34th in BoB, 14th in Bogey Avoidance, 2nd in Par 3 scoring, and 11th in Par 4 scoring. Since DraftKings rewards scoring I like his chances this week to at least reach value. He finished 11th here last year. (GPP only)
Sean O’hair ($6,800):
O’hair hits the ball long, is a great putter, plays par 4s very well, and is great out of the sand. All these things should help him this week. (GPP only)
Chez Reavie ($6,700):
Reavie has quietly had a solid season making 10/12 cuts with five Top 26 finishes. He’s not the longest hitter but he has a great Tee to Green game, avoids bogeys, is accurate off the tee, is an elite scrambler, and is very accurate from 150-175 yards and 200+ yards. He has made his last three cuts at GCOH and I like him as a value play in cash lineups this week. (GPP and cash)
Hudson Swafford ($6,000):
Swafford hits the ball far, plays par 5s well, is a good putter, and is accurate from both key distances this week. He has been playing well recently with three made cuts during the Florida swing and he is 1/2 in made cuts at GCOH. (GPP only)
Jhonnattan Vegas ($5,700):
Vegas has made three of his last four cuts on Tour and has made his last three cuts at GCOH. His stats for the course are solid. He’s 64th in SG:T2G, 44th in P5, 28th in DD, 57th in SG:P, and 16th in Prox200+. He is also elite in Greens in Regulation and I like him a lot this week at this price. (GPP and cash)
Andrew Loupe ($5,700):
Loupe has really good stats for the course. He’s 22nd in BoB, 36th in P5, 20th in DD, 27th in SG:P, and 29th in Prox200+. He has missed his last two cuts making him a GPP play only but he does have THREE Top 10s this year so the upside is there. (GPP only)
JJ Henry ($5,000):
Henry has made 8/9 cuts this year and has made 75% of his cuts at GCOH the last eight years. That plus his minimum price is enough for me to roster him in stars and scrubs lineups this week. With all the firepower up top, I can even see using him as a punt play in cash lineups so you can roster multiple 10k+ golfers. (GPP and cash)
Tournament History
Download Tournament History, Salaries, Odds, etc.
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Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
by KendoVT | Mar 22, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA |
Puerto Rico Open
Analysis and write-up provided by KendoVT. Don’t forget to scroll to the bottom to see each player’s tournament history.
Course Description
While all the A-list golfers of the world head over to Austin, Texas for the WGC Match Play, the leftovers head to Coco Beach Golf Club and Resort for the Puerto Rico Open. This is probably one of the weakest field tournaments all year making it difficult to find six golfers you really like and have faith in to fit into your DraftKings lineups this week. Risky plays will be the norm but I will do my best to try and help guide you into picking the right golfers. Coco Beach Golf Club is a 7,500 yard par 72 course with four par 3s and four par 5s and has hosted this event the past eight years. The Championship course has a wide range of landscapes consisting of mountains, lakes, and oceanside holes. Off the tee golfers will see wide fairways with very light rough. Like most ocean side courses, bunkers and water hazards will be in play off the tee. The greens use seadwarf paspalum grass which is very similar to bermudagrass greens. They are average in size overall but there is a wide array of small and large greens. Bunkers, water, and run offs will be prevalent around the greens as well. The course generally plays easy but if the winds pick up, it will make the course a lot more difficult. Looking at the current weather report, winds should be in the 15 mph range with stronger gusts, so looking at golfers who perform well in the wind could help this week.
Looking at the course description above and trends for the course the last few years, a few key stats come to mind. With this being a weak field everyone’s stats will not look great. You don’t want to exclude someone this week just because they have awful stats. While stats are always important, I think in a field like this current form will be more important than usual. I will be looking at course history as well.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P) and Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G), which are key stats every week.
Overall Proximity to the Hole (Prox)
There really aren’t too many problems off the tee making approach shots more important than anything a golfer does on his drive. Birdies will need to be made to compete so hitting it close will be key. 22/29 golfers that finished Top 3 in the last eight tournaments here have finished inside the Top 125 in this stat for the specific season they finished Top 3.
Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%)
As long as the winds don’t get crazy, this is usually a birdie fest. Last year the winds gusted to nearly 30 mph making this course a lot harder than its usually played. Though the winds will be up this year according to the current weather forecast it shouldn’t be the monsoon type winds we saw here last year. Many birdies will need to be made to get high on the leaderboard. Other than last year, the winner of this tournament usually made around twenty birdies during all four rounds. 20/29 golfers that finished in the Top 3 the last eight years has been inside the Top 125 in BoB% for that specific year.
Par 5 Scoring (P5)
There are four par 5s on this course and golfers will need to take advantage of them to score well. 22/29 golfers that finished Top 3 here the last eight years has been inside the Top 125 in this stat for the specific year they were Top 3.
Bogey Avoidance (BA)
Scoring should be high as long as the golfers don’t see winds over 20 mph and according to the current weather forecast the wind will only be around the 15 mph range the whole week. Avoiding bogeys will be important if golfers want to reach the top of the leaderboard.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
Scott Brown ($10,900):
Brown has the best current form coming into this tournament. He made all four of his cuts during the Florida swing with two Top 10 finishes. He has also made all four of his cuts at Coco Beach with three Top 10s and a win here a few years ago. His stats are well above average and he seems like the safest play out of all the golfers in the field.
William McGirt ($10,500):
McGirt struggled on the weekend last week but has made four of his last five cuts with three Top 25 finishes. He has made both of his cuts at Coco Beach and has the best stats by far out of anyone in the tournament. He’s 20th in SG:T2G, 23rd in BoB%, 37th in BA, 58th in P5, 57th in SG:P, and 39th in Prox.
Patrick Rodgers ($10,200):
Rodgers had a little bit of a lull during most of the Florida Swing but rebounded nicely last week at Bay Hill with a Top 20 finish. He’s 22nd in SG:T2G, 41st in BoB%, 9th in P5, and drives the ball very well. The talent is there with him and a win should be coming sometime this year. Maybe this week.
Retief Goosen ($9,700):
Retief has had a pretty consistent season so far making 5/6 cuts and finishing as high as 11th a couple weeks ago at the Valspar Championship. He hasn’t played this course before but has enough total experience that I don’t think this will faze him.
Alex Cejka ($9,500):
Cejka probably has the best value out of all the players in this top tier. He comes in as my #1 golfer overall this week and #2 when only taking key stats into account. He won this tournament last year and has decent current form, making 7/11 cuts this year with two Top 10s.
Tony Finau ($9,200):
Finau is a talented golfer but has had a disappointing year so far. He played well last week though. He only finished 43rd but he got 82 DK points because of how many birdies he made. He was only 13 DK points behind Zach Johnson and ZJ finished 5th. This tells you how important birdies are and Finau can make a bunch of them on this easy course this week.
Jonathan Byrd ($9,000):
Byrd has had good success at Coco Beach making all three of his cuts here and finishing no worse than 16th. His stats are well above average. He hasn’t played too much this year but has made 3/4 cuts so far in the 2016 season.
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Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
by KendoVT | Mar 14, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA |
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Analysis and write-up provided by KendoVT. Don’t forget to scroll to the bottom to see each player’s tournament history.
Course Description
This week Tour Golfers head to Orlando, Florida for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Golf Club and Lodge. The field of only 120 golfers is very strong due to the fact that many want to pay respect to Arnie and this is the last marquee event before the Masters. Bay Hill is a 7,419 yard par 72 course with four par 3s and four par 5s. It has a good mixture of holes where bombing it off the tee will sometimes be an advantage and sometimes placing it in the right spot with a three wood or hybrid will be the right play. Off the tee golfers will face wide tree lined fairways with strategically placed bunkers on almost every tee shot and water in play on some holes. Even though the fairways are above average in width, there are many slopes and undulations so sometimes a good looking drive off the tee can still find the thickish rough. The greens are elevated on some holes, surrounded by bunkers and thick rough, are average in size, and have many slopes and runoff areas. The grass on the greens was recently changed to TifEagle bermudagrass and this will be the first tournament at Bay Hill using this new grass on the greens. This could play a big factor this week as new greens tend to play a lot firmer and faster during its first year in use. Also the weather could play a big part this weekend as rain and wind is in the forecast for this tournament. The course went through a dramatic change in 2010 so I will probably only be focusing on stats and history from 2010 and on. Also focusing on golfers that have played well in the Florida swing could be important this week. Almost all the golfers that have won this tournament since 2010 have finished Top 10 in some other course on the Florida swing prior to their victory at Bay Hill.
Looking at the course description above and trends for the course the last few years, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats, current form, and course history to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups this week.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P) and Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G), which are key stats every week.
Par 4 Scoring (P4):
I know a lot of people will be focusing on par 5 scoring (P5) this week due to the fact that a lot of birdies and eagles will be made on the par 5s but I’m going with P4 as my most important stat this week. The par 5s on this course are some of the easiest ones on Tour. Everyone should have success on them as most are reachable in two by the majority of the field. The difficult par 4s are where the the tournament is going to be decided. Since 2010, 18/21 golfers that placed in the Top 3 at Bay Hill have finished inside the Top 70 in P4 for the specific year they finished Top 3. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not going to overlook par 5 scoring but I will have P4 weighted more heavily in my model.
Proximity from 200 yards plus (Prox200+):
All four par 3s are over 200 yards and since most golfers will be going for the green in two on par 5s, most all approaches on par 5s will be from 200 yards plus. That’s at least 8 approach shots a round coming from 200 yards plus. In the last few years, 36% of all approach shots at Bay Hill have come from over 200 yards. That’s almost two times more than from any other distance.
Scrambling (Scr):
Scrambling has always played an important part at Bay Hill. Since 2010, 15/21 golfers that finished inside the Top 3 were ranked 60th or better in Scr for that year. I think Scr will actually be more important than usual this year due to the new TifEagle Bermudagrass greens. As I stated before, new greens tend to be a lot firmer and faster in their first year of use. Golfers might not be used to this so I think more greens are going to be missed than in previous years.
Birdie or Better % (BoB%):
81% of the golfers that placed in the Top 3 since 2010 have finished inside the Top 58 in BoB% for that specific year. That’s enough for me to make BoB% an important stat.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
Rory McIlroy ($12,000):
After a hiccup at the Honda Classic, Rory had the lead going into the final round at the WGC Cadillac Championship. He played poorly on Sunday to finish 3rd but you could see that his game was rounding into shape. He’s inside the Top 20 in every one of my key stats except Scr and finished 11th last year, which was his first time playing the course. I expect him to be near the top of the leaderboard again this week. (GPP and cash)
Henrik Stenson ($11,100):
Stenson loves this course. He has finished inside the Top 15 the last four years here, including a 2nd place finish last year and has never missed a cut at Bay Hill in seven tries. He’s one of the best ball strikers in the game and hits his long irons very well. His problem this year has been his putter. He could have easily been in contention for the win last week if he just putted average. If he can get his flat stick working this week, he has as good a chance as anyone in the field to win. (GPP and cash)
Jason Day ($10,800):
Jason Day at this price is just too hard to pass up. Even though he has had a slow start to the season, he is still one of the best golfers in the game. With all the great golfers up top he might get overlooked this week. (GPP only)
Justin Rose ($10,500):
Rose comes in as my #2 ranked golfer overall in my model right behind Adam Scott (even though I didn’t write about Scott this week, I like him. I just think he will be very highly owned and to reach value he needs to win or finish in the Top 3. Winning three weeks in a row is HARD so while I won’t be completely fading him, I won’t be using him too much). Rose is 10th in SG:T2G, 14th in BoB%, 63rd in P4, and 9th in P5. His Scr stats this year aren’t the best but he is exceptional out of the sand which could be helpful this week since there are over 100 bunkers on the course. He has finished as high as 2nd here since 2010 and I think he will be a staple in my cash lineup this week. (GPP and cash)
Ryan Moore ($9,800):
At first glance, $9,800 for Ryan Moore may seem overpriced but if you look deeper into his game this year, the price makes sense. He has made 6/7 cuts this year with FIVE Top 11s including a 3rd place finish last week at Copperhead. Stat wise, he looks great this week. He’s 18th in SG:T2G, 56th in BoB%, 10th in P4, 25th in Scr, and 35th in Prox200+. He honestly should have won last week but his putter let him down. He is 45th in SG:P this year so you know he’s not a bad putter and if he can have a similar tee to green game as last week he has a great chance to win. He is definitely my sleeper pick to get the W this week. (GPP only)
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Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
by KendoVT | Mar 8, 2016 | DraftKings, PGA |
Valspar Championship
Analysis and write-up provided by KendoVT. Don’t forget to scroll to the bottom to see each player’s tournament history.
Course Description
The PGA Tour moves to Tampa Bay this week for the Valspar Championship which will be played on The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort. The Copperhead Course is a 7,340 yard par 71 with FIVE par 3s and four par 5s. The course is usually one of the most difficult par 71 tracks on Tour. It is known for the Snake Pit, a very tough three hole stretch (16, 17, 18) that will probably decide the winner come Sunday. Copperhead is deceptively long. Four of the five par 3s are over 200 yards, all the par 5s are over 550 yards, and only one par 4 is under 420 yards. Add the fact that driver off the tee is not a good play on most holes and the course becomes a daunting task with positioning and long iron play being a key to success.
Off the tee golfers will be challenged with tight tree lined fairways, massive doglegs, thick rough, elevation changes, and bunkers and water in play on some of the holes. The average driving distance at Copperhead is one of the shortest on Tour due to the fact that precision and placement are more important than distance and driver is left in the bag for most golfers on the majority of holes. Hole 16 caught my eye because it has a dogleg right off the tee with water lining the whole right side of the fairway making accuracy off the tee a must. If you over compensate and hit it left, trees come into play. If you over fade it (or over draw it for lefties), water is looming. The greens are firm, and average in speed (unless you land the ball above the hole since most greens here are sloped front back to front). They are also average in size when you take into account only square footage but will look much smaller to the Tour players because they will probably be hitting mid to long irons on their approach shots for the majority of the holes. As with most courses in Florida, the grass will be Bermudagrass but will have a blend of poa trivialis as well.
Looking at the course description above and trends for the course the last few years, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats, current form, and course history to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups this week.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P), which is a key stat every week.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G):
Copperhead is another difficult course, so if you have read my previous write ups, it should come as no shock that SG:T2G is my most important stat of the week. The trends on this course from the last ten years confirms this for me. In the last ten years 35/44 golfers that finished T3 or better have been Top 85 in SG:T2G for that specific year and the majority of those 35 golfers were inside the Top 50 in SG:T2G for the year they finished T3 or better here.
Proximity from 175-200yds (Prox175) AND Proximity from 200yds plus (Prox200+):
Since golfers will be trying to position themselves in the right place off the tee on par 4s, not many drivers will be hit. Also, four of the par 3s are over 200 yards, so long iron approaches to the green will be plentiful. In the last ten years, nearly 60% of all approach shots at this course have come from these distances.
Par 5 scoring (P5):
Only five holes on this course play consistently under par and ALL four par 5s are in that category. Because of how difficult the par 4s and par 3s are, scoring must come from the par 5s. In the last ten years 32/44 golfers that finished T3 or better were inside the Top 75 in this stat for the specific year they finished T3 or better. I might take a look at Par 3 scoring (P3) as well since there are 5 of them on the course.
Good Drive Percentage (GD%):
I really like this stat better than simple driving distance or driving accuracy because it encompasses more than just where the ball lands on the tee shot. It also takes into account green or fringe in regulation from fairways missed. Since the fairways are so narrow and have doglegs, plenty of fairways are going to be missed and how golfers recover from these missed fairways will be important this week. I will be taking a small peak at Driving Accuracy (DA) as well.
Bogey Avoidance (BA):
Unlike a lot of easier courses where a golfer can make a bogey but make up for it later on easier holes, Copperhead doesn’t have too many birdieable holes. As I stated earlier, only 5 holes consistently score under par at this course. Golfers won’t be able to bounce back from bogeys like they can on a lot of courses, so avoiding them is key. In the last ten years 31/44 golfers that finished T3 or better were inside the Top 75 in this stat for that specific year.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
Henrik Stenson ($11,500):
Stenson didn’t play as well as I thought he would last week at Doral but it was his first tournament in the United States this year so I’m going to give him a pass. He has one of the best tee to green games in the world, is usually accurate off the tee, hits a lot of greens, and has a great long iron approach game. He finished 4th at Copperhead last year and he is one of my favorites to win this week. (GPP and cash)
Danny Willett ($10,800):
Willett was in contention last week until he hit the water on 18. He missed a couple of birdie putts under 5 feet on Sunday which basically cost him the tournament. He ended up finishing 3rd but he impressed a lot of people with his masterful short game, especially from the sand. He has jumped inside the Top 15 in the World Golf Rankings and won a few weeks ago in Dubai. I probably won’t be using him in cash games because this is his first time playing Copperhead but he is on the verge of becoming an elite player, so sometimes you can look past no course history when picking golfers of his caliber. If you want to use him in cash games, I won’t be mad. I might actually change my mind by week’s end and use him in cash lineups myself. (GPP only as of now)
Matt Kuchar ($9,800):
Mr. Consistent makes my picks list once again this week and comes in as my #2 ranked golfer in my model. He has good course history at Copperhead making his last 5 cuts here with three Top 15 finishes. His stats this year so far line up real nicely with what I’m looking for this week. He’s 59th in SG:T2G, 10th in P5, 78th in DA, 20th in BA, and 44th in Prox200+. He hasn’t won in a while but this could be the week he pulls it off. (GPP and cash)
Harris English ($9,600):
Every time I see English priced over $9,000 I cringe but using him could pay off. He comes in as my #5 ranked golfer this week. He has had a solid year so far making 8/9 cuts with four Top 25s including two Top 10s. He’s 47th in SG:T2G, 33rd in BA, 65th in P5, 29th in SG:P, and 28th in Prox175. He has also made his last three cuts at Copperhead with two Top 10 finishes. If you are looking to avoid the $10,000 and up golfers in cash games this week, a Kuchar/English lineup might be the way to go. (GPP and cash)
Ryan Moore ($9,300):
Moore has quietly had a very solid season so far in 2016 making 5/6 cuts with FOUR Top 11 finishes. His stats so far this year line up real well with the course this week. He’s 31st in SG:T2G, 37th in BA, 2nd in P3, 38th in DA, 16th in GD%, 40th in SG:P, 79th in Prox175, and 51st in Prox200+. He has had an up and down career at Copperhead but has two Top 10 finishes here including a 5th place finish last year. (GPP and cash)
Graeme McDowell ($9,200):
GMac is my #2 ranked golfer this week when only looking at key stats for the course. He’s 53rd in SG:T2G, 3rd in BA, 12th in P5, 4th in DA, 9th in GD%, 71st in Prox175, and 12th in Prox200+. I won’t be using him in cash games because he has never played the course before but he will be in A LOT of my GPP lineups this week. (GPP only)
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Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
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