NFL Millionaire Maker Profit Share, Lineup Review – DraftKings
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Let’s take a minute to discuss the Millionaire Maker lineup that I rostered this week. Here it is:
As I mentioned, I thought that the Romo/Dez stack had as much upside as any stack out there. That game had the 3rd highest total and many sites had the Cowboys with the highest projected team total. I had a feeling that they were being underowned around the industry and many others were going with Bradford/Matthews or Ryan/Julio. We absolutely nailed Romo as he was the 3rd highest scoring QB with 27.14 points  (1.5 points behind Carson Palmer) and only 9.6% owned. It was close, but both Ryan (10.8%) and Bradford (17.8%) were higher owned. Unfortunately, Dez broke his foot, left early and didn’t do much before leaving the game. That’s just a blip on the radar, no way to predict any injury. Dez is a prime time player who was capable of having a massive game. I am very happy with this QB/WR stacks.
Benny Cunningham is a guy that I started to get really hot on mid-week and it translated into me rostering him on Sunday. I had him almost everywhere. The thought process was that he was a min-priced running back that was going to see all the workload in this game with Todd Gurley and Tre Mason being ruled out. The matchup was very difficult, but Cunningham is a capable receiver. I was hoping for something like six catches for 50 yards and 30 rushing yards. That alone would return 14 DK points and over 4x value. If he found the endzone it would be all gravy! He ended up having a great day (16.2 points) for a player priced at the minimum and he was actually stuffed from the one yard line which would have been a really epic day. Any time you can get a player who returns 5,4x value, you have to be happy.
The play of Demarco Murray is a calculated risk. Yes, I believe that his touches will be significantly less than last season, but I think he will be more efficient. I felt that if he gets 18 carries in this game, he could be in for a nice payday. This game was the highest total on the board and I felt like the industry was completely forgetting about the league’s leading rusher because of the unknown split of touches. His price of $6,700 was a steal compared to players in that range and with his upside. I was wrong on just about every account! He was widely owned at 23.9% which is significantly more than I expected. I hadn’t heard much on him all week, but at the end of the day, everyone was on Murray. The Eagles threw the ball 52 (!!) times. I don’t think that’s typical as Murray only saw 8 rushes. He ended up with two TDs (one receiving, one rushing) but only 18 DK points! I still believe his upside is tremendous, but we will talk more about Philadelphia running backs moving forward. This is probably one of the most interesting situations in football.
Tyler Lockett was another guy I was getting really high on. He was probably the preseason MVP across the league and didn’t disappoint in Week 1. He is a dynamic, shifty player who is very difficult to cover. At the minimum price, we didn’t need much output from him. He returned a handful of catches and a punt return TD which ended up being 13.4 DK points. Again, that’s over 4x value so you cannot be upset about that.
Demaryius Thomas was certainly the biggest disappointment in the lineup. I wasn’t high on Peyton Manning coming in, but even when Manning struggled last season, Demaryius was able to feast. He was a PPR monster and had a nose for the endzone. This game had the second highest total on the board so I was very happy to roster Thomas. At only 7.1% owned, we would have greatly benefitted from a big day, but unfortunately it didn’t happen. We just didn’t see any of that this week. The Broncos completely flopped and didn’t score an offensive TD.
I was pretty optimistic on Delanie Walker but had him grouped with a bunch of other low salary TEs (Daniels, Eifert, Donnell). Unfortunately, we didn’t get Eifert in this lineup but Walker still had a nice day. The thought process was that Marcus Mariota was going to be a bit flustered in his first start and would check down and throw a ton of short passes to Walker. I thought this was a nice opportuntity to gain a bunch of PPR points and a potential redzone touchdown. I certainly didn’t expect Mariota to look like Joe Montana and he didn’t really NEED Walker much! A return of 13.3 DK points from a $3,400 player is still 3.9x return, so still on pace for that 4x target.
I was super high on Vincent Jackson and had a ton of exposure to him across the board. When Mike Evans was ruled out, he became the only show in town. Unfortunately it was Jameis Winston who was the flustered QB in this matchup and they never got anything going. V-Jax has always been a high risk, high reward player so rostering him in this type of tournament made sense. When this game started and I saw he was only 5.6% owned, I was licking my chops! A 25 point performance would have had us in the running, but Winston never got anything rolling. Jackson turned in 9.1 DK points.
Finally, I completely whiffed on the defense. I didn’t expect anything close to the performance that Mariota put on. I thought the Buccaneers could get enough pressure to force him into a turnover or two. Rostering defenses in GPPs, especially of this magnitude, is a bit of a crapshoot in my opinion. You’re looking for a return TD or a pick six to really have a chance to win. Obviously giving up 40+ points is not the way to win a GPP!
Overall, I am fairly happy with this lineup. We nailed the QB and two value plays. We got 4x from the TE. We got two TDs from our RB. Those are all good things! Unfortunately, for a two TD game, Murray didn’t do much else. We completely whiffed on both stud WRs and the defense. That’s okay though! If we nail every QB and value plays all season we are going to do great. Most times, the stud WRs won’t let us down. This could have easily been Julio Jones and Jordan Matthews and we would have been in the money. This was a well thought out lineup and we will look to do it again next week!
Final score: 119.94
Profit: (-$20)
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