Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value.This week brings us value in Carmen Tringale who is just over 100:1 to win the event despite being only $100 above the minimum salary at $6,400. With five made cuts out of six tries at this event and a top ten in his last appearance, Tringale just may be worth a flier in GPPs this week. The other standout this week is is ‘Party’ Marty Laird who has roughly 90:1 odds to win this event despite his $6,900 price tag. Despite having missed the cut here last year, Martin Laird does have two top ten finishes at this event in his five made cuts in his last six tries. I won’t be going all-in but I don’t hate the way vegas has priced Laird’s odds and it certainly makes for a relatively inexpensive golfer with real upside.
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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. This week there are a couple of standouts in terms of ownership, one of which is a golfer I’ve talked about a lot in this article series. Tony Finau has an initial projected ownership of under 20% yet has consistently outperformed his salary time in and time out this season. Since his switch from Nike equipment, Finau has been a completely changed golfer. I will continue to jump on the Finau train and sing his praises until I run out of money.
Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. There are some serious swings when it comes to the OWGR versus salary chart this week. Bud Cauly who is the 103rd golfer in the world is the eighth highest priced golfer in the field! This isn’t exactly a field full of the best and brightest golfers in the world but this seems like a mispriced player if I’ve ever seen one. Despite this discrepancy I am still advocating using Bud Cauly in GPPs. My hopes are that this price will keep ownership down on a golfer who has three straight top ten finishes, and two straight top 25 finishes at this event. The other interesting golfer that shows up on the OWGR vs. Salary chart is Yuta Ikeda. I’ll be the first to raise my hand and admit I don’t really know this golfer at all, however a quick google search shows that Ikeda has a win on the Asian tour in every year between 2009 and 2016 racking up a total of sixteen wins internationally. Definitely take it with a grain of salt, and there are no guarantees here, but Ikeda shows up as a blip on the charts, and the charts don’t lie!
Dean & Deluca Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.