Welcome back to DFSonDemand!
Tonight is going to be a very interesting slate because at first glance, DraftKings didn’t do a great job in preventing an all-Coors stack while allowing for a few decent arms to fit in lineups. It is going to be imperative to decide on whether or not you’re going to go with or against Coors tonight because a good number of players will be. With that said, I am here to help breakdown our pitching matchups and talk about some stacks. Lets dive in.
Note: Felix Hernandez has been scratched tonight!
Pitchers
Pitcher: Jon Lester ($10,000, -199, O/U 8.5)
Opponent: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are coming off being no-hit by Jake Arrieta a night ago and get another tall task with Jon Lester tonight. The issue that Lester could face tonight is that the Reds have been better against left-handed pitchers this year. In their first 170 plate appearances against lefties this season, they have a .360 team wOBA and an .830 OPS. The Reds team wOBA is tied for sixth in baseball, which could be somewhat of a challenge for Lester. He will take a park hit playing in Cincinnati as well. While Lester strikes out 25% of his batters, he is getting a Reds team that has just a 16% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers this season. The Reds are making soft-contact against left-handed pitchers just 13.5% of the time, which is the second-best rating in baseball behind the PADRES! For his career, Lester has been very balanced in his wOBA allowed to lefties and righties, so he doesn’t truly limit on side of the plate which means the Reds will roll out their regulars. I also get nervous that the Reds can run all over Lester. He is a huge Vegas favorite, but the total is 8.5, which somewhat makes me hesitant. I also think that he could see a higher ownership because of Arrieta’s success a night ago.
Pitcher: Gio Gonzalez ($9,100, -144, O/U 8)
Opponent: Minnesota Twins
The Washington Nationals get some interleeague play tonight against the Twins, who found their bats against the Brewers. Moving from Minnesota to Milwaukee, the Twins got a park boost, but will go into Nationals Park, which isn’t as hitter friendly. So far this season, Gonzalez is striking out 24.5% of opposing hitters, which could bode well for him as the Twins strike out just over 22% of the time against lefties. The Twins have a .305 team wOBA against lefties this season, but just a .092 ISO. That is far from impressive. Seven of the nine bats in the Twins lineup are right-handed. Despite that, this is a good matchup for Gio and he could still benefit from being a little wild as he generates swings outside of the zone on 27% of his pitches there. The Twins swing at pitches outside of the zone at that same rate. However, the Twins are one of the best teams at making contact against pitches outside of the zone at 64.6%. The Twins lose the DH tonight and don’t put scare me too much. With Felix Hernandez scratched, Gio gets a boost in the rankings for tonight. I think he is cash playable.
Pitcher: Aaron Sanchez ($7,200, -130, 8)
Opponent: Oakland Athletics
Sanchez has been a great surprise this season, and it isn’t because we didn’t expect results, but he has truly held his own each time he has stepped on the mound. Sanchez gets a huge park boost going from Toronto to Oakland where it seems like everything is playable. He will also be facing a lineup that just isn’t that great. To this point in the season, the Athletics are striking out just under 20% of the time against right-handed pitchers with a .285 wOBA. To this point, Sanchez is striking out 26.3% of his opponents. He gets the A’s, who are swinging at 29.1% of pitches outside of the zone and making contact on just 56%, which ranks 23rd in baseball. The A’s don’t strike a ton of fear in me and if you’re stacking Coors, you may need a cheaper pitcher to get those bats. I like Sanchez in both formats given the bigger park and some strikeout upside.
Pitcher: Nick Tropeano ($6,100, -125, 7.5)
We can also consider Nick Tropeano, who is a Vegas favorite over the Mariners tonight. Seattle will be traveling from Cleveland to play and it speaks volumes that the struggling Angels are favored over the Mariners. To this point in the season, Tropeano is striking out just over 19% of batters that he faces. The Mariners have a 22% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers and chase pitches outside the zone 29% of the time, but have good contact rates on those swings. The biggest issue with Tropeano is the depth of his start as he had yet to go beyond six innings in a game. At $6,100 there is a good chance that he makes value, which makes him a good play tonight.
STACKS
I guess we will start with Coors field, which is basically a sandbox. Everyone is going to be on this game and for good reason. There is a ton of value here and Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra down to $3.7K, which makes them both affordable. Even with the left-on-left matchup, they are both underpriced. Kazmir is a good pitcher to target here as he allows 40% fly balls and that isn’t a great thing at Coors. Kazmir is also allowing over 1.5 home runs per nine innings pitched and that very well may regress, but I’m not picking Coors as the day for that to begin. Kazmir also getting hit around by both left and right handed bats, so that makes everyone viable. I think every Rockie is in play tonight with Carlos Gonzalez being the highest owned due to the depressed pricing by DraftKings. I do like Trevor Story as the foundation of a stack as much as I don’t like to spend up at shortstop. Everyone here will be high owned.
If we go to the other end of this game, the Dodgers go from Atlanta to Coors, which are polar opposites. Jonathan Gray showed flashes of being a top prospect at times last season, but Coors doesn’t help pitchers at all. He will have another tall task tonight going against a decent Dodgers team. The run total in this game is 11.5 and Adrian Gonzalez jumps out as the slugger to ignite this offense. His price does increase nearly $700 today at Coors, which isn’t too great. At shortstop, Corey Seager is going to be a good pivot off of Trevor Story. I think the most underrated bat on the Dodgers for this game will be Yasmani Grandal at $3.7K.
We can stay in the same division with a Giants stack. They get Cosart and the Marlins tonight. I am not particularly high on Cosart and think the Giants left-handed bats could get to him tonight. In fact, I think all Giants bats could as he has allowed a .331 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season. That higher wOBA to righties is consistent as he also allowed that in 2015. Just about every Giants bat in their projected starting lineup watches their wOBA and ISO go up against right-handed pitchers, including Hunter Pence, who will be in the middle of their lineup.
In cash games, I think Coors is the play tonight, but if you want to bet on Coors tanking, I think the Giants make a good stack. I would also consider the Washington Nationals, who face Kyle Gibson.
There are some weather issues facing some big plays in tonight’s games. Be on the watch for that going into the games.
If you have any questions, reach me @JFerrie23 on Twitter.
Best of luck!