Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week is going to be a much more difficult week with the fact that the pricing is a bit tighter and the field is quite a bit weaker than usual. That being said there are a couple of outliers this week, one of which is Billy Hurley III who comes in at only $6,200. While I wouldn’t go overboard with Billy Hurley I do think he presents some value and upside in such a weak field despite his poor recent form, especially when you consider that he’s finished fourth and thirty-seventh in his last two showing at this event. The other outlier is Steward Cink at $6,900 with nearly 65:1 odds to win. Not only does Stewart Cink make a great play in GPPs for his price, he is an absolute lock for me in cash formats boasting his astounding 10 top 30 finishes in his last 14 events.
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. This week you can expect ownership to depend drastically on what the industry experts are saying about certain golfers, however there are a few clear cut opportunities this week in my opinion. The first of which is Bubba Watson who leaves me a bit torn. On one hand his ownership is going to be exceptionally low in an event with not many premium golfers to choose from, however on the other hand he’s been playing exceptionally poorly nearly all year! It’s hard to want to pile onto Bubba like I have in years past but I think he is worth a small flier knowing he has the potential to be under 10% owned. On the other hand, you can expect players like Tony Finau, Danny Lee, Bill Haas, and David Lingmerth to all find their way into a lot of lineups!.
Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. There are a couple standouts on this chart that are very intriguing to me! The first of the standouts this week is Mackenzie Hughes who has flown a bit under the radar into the 111th position in the OWGR. At only $6,300 he definitely qualifies as value, and we’ve seen time and time again in weak fields rookies on tour find their way to break through for their first win 5-6 times a year. Seems like Hughes could fit the bill this week. The other standout is Si-Woo Kim who definitely makes an interesting GPP play. I think there is no question in my mind at this point that Si-Woo has some serious upside when it comes to GPPs, however inconsistency is the name of the game with Si-Woo. All that being said, in the mid-$7k range the pickings are slim so I’ll be firing Si-Woo up into a few of my lineups without question.
Greenbriar Classic Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.