Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. I’m a bit surprised at the way this chart looks because typically on weeks where the field is weaker (this week certainly qualifies) there are usually some much bigger outliers in this comparison tool. The few who do stand out this week, don’t strike me as major standouts the way I’m used to seeing. Boo Weekly and Scott Brown both stand out a bit at $6,600 and $7,000 respectively, but realistically if posed with a choice, I think I’d pass on both and elect to take one of the younger guys with more upside and less consistency. If you’re a golf betting person, you may want to pick this week to take some fliers as we’ve seen a lot of weak field events result in young standout’s getting their first win.
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. I am crossing my fingers and praying to the golf gods that I’m not wrong about Zach Johnson’s low ownership, because if he does come in at under 15% he makes for a phenomenal GPP play. He hasn’t been playing great this year, but he can win this tournament, is under priced, and low owned which is a recipe for a great GPP option. I bet you didn’t realize until this moment that Bubba Watson is in this field until just this moment. Why? Because you’ve perpetually glanced down the list of golfers and browsed past his name without a second thought for the last several months because of his poor play. However, Bubba has 20 golfers who are higher priced than him, including the likes of Bud Cauley, David Hearn, and Ben Martin. I’m not telling you Bubba is going to win this thing, but I’m telling you he can, and since he’s likely to be under 5% owned I’ll take a shot on Bubba without much risk.
Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. Here is where things really get interesting, because in a field where there isn’t much to pick from when it comes to sheer talent, we’ve got some serious discrepancies in this chart. The biggest of said discrepancies is Wesley Bryan who will make his way into a lot of my lineups. He’s the fourth highest ranked golfer in the field in the OWGR yet is only $7,300! This is a golfer who won 3 times on the Web.com tour just last year and has already tallied a win in his rookie season. Make no mistake about the talent that this young man has, and jump on board with me!
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.