With a week on MLB action in the books, we can start to use some of that data to help us find DFS opportunity. I’ve switched the daily charts to use 2017 information for hitters. Since most pitchers have only made one start, we cannot use their 2017 data alone just yet, so it’s not a combination of 2016 and 2017 stats. Let’s take a look!
Let’s start with the chalk. Expect heavy ownership on Stephen Strasburg who is one of three pitchers to enter the slate with a 10+ K/9. Of those three, he probably has the best matchup as he will battle Philadelphia today. The Phillies exploded for 17 runs last night, but that’s obviously unlikely to happen with any regularity for this team. Entering yesterday, the Phillies were striking out at 28.6% which was the second highest mark in the league so far this season.
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You also have to like Gerrit Cole on this slate. This is a chance to “buy low” early in the season after Cole was pedestrian in his opener. Cole fanned just two batters and allowed five earned in five innings. Don’t forget that was against a potent Red Sox offense in an American League park. Cole will return home as a significant favorite (-142) to face a putrid Atlanta offense.
The Nationals offense also looks like a “go!” today. They lead the league in wOBA and will face Jeremy Hellickson today. Hellickson pitched to contact in his first outing of the season, only striking out one over five innings in Cincinnati. I don’t like to look back at past seasons too much, but we are short on data for 2017, so I’ll make an exception. Hellickson faced the Nationals four times last season and was feast of famine. Two outings combined for 13 runs over nine innings while he allowed just one earned in 14 innings for the other two starts. I’m willing to invest in a Nationals offense that has swing it well in the first week of the year.
Dodgers are obvious. Playing at Coors against Tyler Anderson who allowed five earned in 5.2 IP in his first outing.
I’m at least vaguely interested in the Athletics today against Martin Perez. It’s not that I love the A’s, I just don’t like Perez! He has the unfortunate honor of being the owner of slate’s worth K/9 and the worst xFIP. That’s a pretty killer combination when it comes to opponent opportunity. Oakland has been middle of the road this year and should benefit from playing in Texas as opposed to Oakland. Also, it’s supposed to be over 80 degrees in Arlington tomorrow, so the ball should be flying!