James Paxton has been lights out for basically 28 of his 32 innings pitched this season. That bad stretch was a five run outburst he allowed to Oakland in just 4.1 IP. He hasn’t allowed a single run outside of that start which has resulted in fantasy outputs of 21.7, 32.2, 38.2 and 34.8 DraftKings points. All the factors are in favor of Paxton today as he faces the dismal Angels offense that ranks 26th in the league in wOBA. Not only that, but this game is being played in Seattle which is one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the league.
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If you want another lefty and one who’s way more volatile, consider Matt Moore. He scored a total of four DraftKings points in back-to-back games against Colorado, but book-ended those games with stellar starts against Arizona and the Dodgers for 27.6 and 26.8 DraftKings points. The Dodgers outing was his most recent, raking up eight K’s in seven innings while only allowing two hits. It’s probably no surprise that Moore saw success against LA who ranks 25th in wOBA vs. LHP this season.
I am a big fan of Danny Duffy, but I think he presents an opportunity to stack against today. The White Sox are mostly an anemic offense but have exploded in the last seven days. They own the league’s second best wOBA (.384) while scoring the third most runs in that span (43). The Sox faced Duffy just five days ago and dropped six runs on him in 4.2 IP. When a pitcher faces the same team two starts in a row, I tend to think it’s the offense that has an edge. If the Sox can improve on their output from five days ago, they are in for a big day.
How about basically an identical situation for the Braves? They are the third best offense (surprisingly) in the last seven days and will face Matt Harvey again for the second time in five days. That first outing was, wait for it…six runs in 4.1 IP. How about that?! The Braves have been scoring runs, but haven’t done it with the longball. It’s been a full lineup approach of “next man up” which could benefit some full stacks.