Point Guards against Miami have not fared well this season. Not only have the Heat allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing PGs this season, no one opponent has been immune. The Heat are the only team that slowed down Russell Westbrook who was the 19th highest scoring player on the slate on the day he played Miami. For reference, Westbrook hasn’t finished worse than 6th in any other game this season. Miami has faced 39 different PGs as described by their DraftKings position. Only two PGs (Wall and Rondo) finished in the top ten in DraftKings scoring for that date. Every other PG scored less than 35 DraftKings points. That doesn’t bode well for Isaiah Thomas tonight who will be tasked with facing Miami.
Welp, he’s no longer a surprise, but Jeremy Lamb exploded on the scene on Saturday night. His massive 18-17 game was a season-high for rebounds in a game by a guard. That was worth 45.75 DraftKings points in 36 minutes of action. Lamb’s opportunity came with Nicolas Batum sitting out. Lamb could only be considered if Batum sits again and he was questionable at last check.
There’s always something interesting about Marcus Smart. He’s a five category threat who has posted games of 34.5, 31.5 and 30.5 DraftKings points in his last three games. I’d argue there is plenty of room for improvement because Smart is shooting the ball terribly. He’s hit only 8 of his 28 shots and 3 of 13 three point attempts in that span. The good news for Smart is that he’s playing 30+ minutes on a nightly basis and he can pile it up in other categoies. That same brutal three game stretch has provided 18 rebounds and 23 assists. If his shot starts to fall, he could explode for a massive game.
The best contrarian play this season has been Dion Waiters. I’m not kidding. Waiter is having an awesome year for Miami and he’s seemingly 5% owned in every contest. The reason is that he has been on the injury report on a nightly basis for about three weeks. He’s questionable EVERY NIGHT but finds a way to suit up and drop big time fantasy points. His last six games have averaged 33.2 DK PPG with 40 point upside. Waiters has never met a shot he didn’t like, taking 17.6 FGA per game over his last eight.
I’m buying the price on Jonas Valanciunas in this matchup tonight. JV is a legit double-double threat on a nightly basis. Depsite being the third offensive option for the Raptors, he’s scored double-digit points in nine straight games and is averaging 15.3 PPG in his last six contests. The good news for Valanciunas tonight is the matchup with the Sixers especially without Joel Embiid in the lineup for Philadelphia. Tonight is the second night of a B2B for Philly which means scheduled rest for Embiid. That leaves Jahlil Okafor as the man in the paint who is a defensive liability.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis as news and injuries break closer to tip-off! Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.