Today, I am going to use the NBA Scoring Calendar to try and analyze who may be worth a second look today. The Scoring Calendar is a visualization of the NBA Game Logs that help me to see who’s trending up/down, who is playing well in back-to-backs and much more.
Who’s Hot?
To help determine “Who’s Hot”, I have gathered the averages for every playing in the league over the last seven days (L7). If we compare that to the player’s season average, we can see who is currently playing above their head. I took out anyone who doesn’t average at least 20 DraftKings points per game this season and that left us with these top 10:
For today, Kent Bazemore jumps off the screen. Bazemore has tallied his two best games of the season this week thanks to some hot shooting. He’s entered the starting lineup for the Hawks, but that doesn’t mean he’s locked into minutes. He’s going to need to play well early in this game to see extended minutes. Bazemore and the Hawks should have no trouble with the Sixers as they are currently 14 point favorites in this game. If you want to look back to last season, Bazemore averaged 30.5 DraftKings per game in three meetings with Philadelphia.
2016-17 Game Logs | 2015-16 Player Scoring Calendar | 2015-16 Salary Database | 2015-16 Points Allowed By Position
Nick Young could be another cheap target. His last three games have been his three best fantasy games of the season. The minutes are there for Young, who has played 36, 29 and 30 minutes in those games. Young is dependent on scoring real points, but we know Swaggy P isn’t afraid to shoot the rock. He’s launched 37 shots (including 22 threes) in the last three games. If he stays hot, he can fill it up in a hurry.
Who’s Not?
Let’s flip the chart and see who is struggling this week.
Tobias Harris is a minutes monster but his production has taken a nosedive in the L7. His last four games that essentially been the worst four of his season despite playing at least 30 minutes in each contest. He’s ice cold from the field, hitting just 16 of his 49 shots in this stretch, including 1-12 from deep. It’s even more concerning that his price has RISEN from his last game, by $500.
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Back-To-Backs
The back-to-back is one of the most interesting aspects in NBA DFS and can often influence a ton of decisions. During the course of a long season, coaches can opt to rest their players on either end of a B2B. Resting players can open up value plays for backups. If not for resting players, coaches may be more aware of their star’s minutes. Every player reacts differently to a B2B, so it’s worth digging into.
There are 10 teams playing the second half of a B2B tonight. They are Boston/Indy (playing each other), Sixers, Raptor/Knicks, Spurs, Wizards, Jazz, Clippers and Pistons. I took the players in those games and sorted them by their season average to compare it average on the second half of a B2B. Now, you have note, this is a VERY SMALL sample size. Some teams have only played one B2B, or in the case of the Raptors, haven’t played one yet. This may not be the most important thing to look at today, but will grow more important as the season goes on. Without further adieu:
It’s worth nothing that you need to dig a little deeper into this chart. Pau Gasol and the Spurs are taking on the Rockets, a team they just played on Wednesday night. Gasol was not a good matchup for the Rockets as Coach Pop sat Pau down for the entire second quarter. A smaller lineup was more effective against the Rockets, a strategy that they might employ again tonight.
Matchup Beast
A better matchup tonight might be Andre Drummond who posted a 19-20 line against the Nuggets just a week ago. In the last four games, Drummond has hauled in 64 rebounds and tacked on 72 points. You’ve got a guy who’s a dominant inside presence, facing a team that he just scored seven days ago.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis as news and injuries break closer to tip-off! Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
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