Introducing the NFL Projections for Week 1! Below you will find both the online and downloadable versions of my NFL Projections. Keep in mind that these projections are mostly using 2015 data. As we gain more data for the 2016 season, these will be updated accordingly. Also, NFL tends to be one of the harder sports to make projections for. The lack of overall data from only 16 games and the overall volatility of the game makes exact projections difficult. I would use these to projections to identify value play and those players who are in good matchups.
These projections take will take into account three main factors: recent performance, matchup and Vegas Line. Those three factors lend themselves very well to fantasy scoring.
2x, 3x, 4x – The amount of fantasy points a player needs to score to reach 2x, 3x and 4x value on his salary.
DVP – The amount of fantasy points a defense allows to that specific position. (1.4 means they allow 1.4x the league average).
TmTot – The projected points a team will score according to the Las Vegas line.
AvgTmTot – The average projected points total for that team according to Las Vegas lines.
%2x, %3x and %4x – The liklihood that a player reaches those value milestones.
Mean – Average fantasy points scored by that player.
StdDev – The mathematical calculation for standard deviation.
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