Welcome to Week 7 of the NFL! We are finally starting to see some usable sample sizes and learning how coaches will be using their players in high leverage situations. Also the BYE weeks add an extra dynamic when it comes to roster construction and recency biases.

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Sunday Surprises

Kenny Britt is in the midst of a surprisingly season with the Rams. Britt exploded for 136 yards on seven catches and two TDs last week at Detroit. While that production is likely the top end of his range, Britt has consistently seen targets from QB Case Keenum this season. He’s earned at least six targets in all but one game and has turned those into at least 75 receiving yards in four of his last five. Britt will only be on slates that include the London game, which should make him significantly under-owned against the Giants.

 

How many will remember Adam Thielen‘s big game in Week 5? After a BYE week, I’d say not many. Thielen benefited from the absence of teammate Stefon Diggs and posted a seven-catch, 127 yard outing while tacking on a TD for 28.7 DraftKings points. I would like Thielen even more if Diggs doesn’t suit up for this game, but at this price, he’s flashed enough upside to be on your radar this week.

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Here To Stay

Hunter Henry, welcome to fantasy relevance. He’s actually been relevant for a week or two, but admittedly I was concerned about his ability to maintain production. Henry has now scored 16.1, 16.4 and 20.3 DraftKings points in the last three weeks, all at very reasonable price tags. Henry has been a redzone target of QB Philip Rivers, resulting in TDs in three straight games. My concern is that Henry is just slightly TD dependent as he isn’t racking up a huge volume of catches. I’m willing to forget about both of those issues to unlock the sublime matchup with Atlanta, who allows the second most fantasy points to opposing TEs.

 

I think Cam Meredith is here to stay. He’s racked up 55.9 DraftKings points over the last two weeks thanks to 27 targets from QB Brian Hoyer. It’s clear that these two have a connection and Meredith is cashing in 20 receptions over the last two weeks. A Thursday Night date with Green Bay, who allows the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing WRs, should allow him to keep the good times rolling.

 

 Matt Ryan continues to dice up opposing defenses. His 2,075 passing yards this season is nearly 300 more than the next closest QB (Eli Manning) and he’s lapping the field when it comes to yards per attempt. His 9.88 yards/attempt is 1.7 more than Philip Rivers. That’s the same difference between Rivers and Jameis Winston who ranks #28 in the league. He has scored at least 26 DraftKings points in four of six starts this season and he will face the Chargers who rank 26th in the league against QBs at home in Atlanta.

Off The Grid

For a more “off the grid” QB option, consider Derek Carr. His 227 passing attempts this season is 4th most in the league and he hasn’t throw less than 34 times in any outing this year. The concern with Carr is mostly his yardage totals which are all over the map this season. He’s tallied 319, 299, 249, 199, 317 and 225 in his six games. Despite the seemingly random totals, he’s found a way to score 23+ DraftKings points in four of six. His date with Jacksonville this week is likely his best matchup since Week 1 when he faced the Saints.

 

Amari Cooper has been flying under the radar just a bit this season since he’s only found the endzone one time. Despite that, he’s scored 24+ DraftKings points in 3 of 6 this season and 30.8 then 25.9 in the last two weeks. It looked like Michael Crabtree was going to steal targets from Cooper, but with 25 looks in the last two weeks, those rumblings have quieted for the time being. An ideal matchup awaits Cooper and the Raiders as they travel to Jacksonville for Week 7.

 

Almost every Patriot has benefited from the return of Tom Brady. Maybe no more than James White who has hauled in 12 catches over the last two weeks, compared to the 13 he caught in the first four games of the season. It’s also worth noting that White has been eating into LeGarrette Blount‘s playing time, playing on 39.6% of snaps compared to Blount’s 25.3%. White has earned more snaps than Blount just twice this season and they were…you guessed it, the last two weeks with Tom Brady under center.

 

Chalk It Up

I’ll be firing up the Denver DST in most formats this week. Despite an underwhelming Thursday night performance against the Chargers in Week 6, they are still the third highest scoring offense in the league over the last three weeks. Now they will have the long week to prepare for QB Brock Osweiler (who they have an intimate knowledge of) and will be at home for this Monday Night contest. Osweiler is second in the league with eight interceptions and looked miserable for 95% of his Week 6 game against the Colts. He routinely missed passes high, which is a recipe for interceptions. As a 6.5 point dog in a game with a 41.5 point total, the Texans have the lowest projected total on the slate.

 

We’ve talked about how the Atlanta offense has been rolling, which also includes K Matt Bryant. Over the last three weeks, Bryant is the second highest scoring kicker in the league behind Adam Vinatieri. He’s perfect this season, nailing all 12 FGs and 21 XPs this season. This game is posted with a 51 point total, highest on the board. The Falcons should have no problem putting up points at home, averaging 12.5 DK points per game at home this season compared to 9.0 on the road.

Perfect Pivots

Expect MVP-candidate, Matt Ryan, to be heavily owned at home in a dream scenario with SD for $7,200. The pivot off Ryan should be Andrew Luck at $7,000 on DraftKings. Luck offers just as much upside as any QB on the board, despite his offensive line woes. Luck has been sacked more than any QB in the league and under distress on a constant basis. On a positive fantasy note, Luck under pressure is forcing him to rush the ball more often (16 carries the last three weeks). Luck scampered for 53 yards and a rushing TD last week which was a huge boost to his owners. Remember, 40 rushing yards is the equivalent to a passing TD. Vegas has slated this game with a 48 point total, one of the highest of the week.

All the Mike Evans you can eat! I’m not really sure what his ownership will be coming off a BYE and having a “poor” matchup in the DraftKings lobby. Those are two factors that heavily impact ownership. Despite that, Evans is going to be making an appearance in the vast majority of my lineups. He is in the midst of an awesome season (averaging 20.8 DK PPG) and has earned at least 11 targets in each of his last four games. Now teammate Vincent Jackson has been placed on the IR, making it the Mike Evans show.

Cheap Fliers

Assuming Dwayne Allen sits out, Jack Doyle could emerge as a value Tight End option. I’d only trust him in GPPs, but at the min-price ($2,500) on DraftKings, he’s going to be hard to overlook. Doyle snared all four targets last week for 53 yards and a TD. That marked the third game this season that he’s notched at least 12.5 DraftKings points. That 12.5 point milestone would be worth 5x value this week and you imagine that his ceiling would be higher as he will likely see a much larger share of the TE targets.

Jacquizz Rodgers is back in line for a massive workload again this week. Teammate Doug Martin suffered a setback in practice which leaves Rodgers as really the only healthy back on the team. That same scenario led to 30 (!!) carries and five receptions in Week 5 versus Carolina. He will likely be expected to play almost every down this week against San Francisco. Don’t be fooled, Rodgers is not an amazing talent, but you’re investing is sheer volume at this point. I would suspect Rodgers ends the week with the cheapest “Dollar Per Touch” of all players.

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