Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. Last week resulted in a strong performance from the Salary Vs. Odds chart calling out the likes of Louis Oosthuizen who had a strong performance. This weeks brings us Shane Lowry as the biggest standout with respect to salary and vegas odds to win. At better than 50:1 odds to win in some spots, Lowry has better odds to win than Tony Finau who is nearly $1,100 more expensive! Don’t overthink this and get Lowry in to your GPP lineups.
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. There are a couple of serious standouts right off the bat when you look at this chart. Unless you’ve been living under a rock you will have heard of Jon Rahm who has been on a tear which is quickly becoming unprecedented. As a result expect his ownership to continue to climb. In most cases I would advocate fading guys with this condition, however Rahm may be an exception. The guys who qualify as low owned and possible high upside players would be Jason Day and Jimmy Walker, both of which could win the tournament this week without surprising anyone. Jimmy Walker is probably one of my favorite tournament plays at a reduced price, ownership, and exceptional course history.
Salary Vs. OWGR
I’m pleased to bring you a brand new chart that will become a regular feature on ‘The Charts’ series; Salary versus Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR). Shane Lowry stands out a bit on this chart as well, but since we’ve covered him I’ll move on to some other pertinent names. Both Scott Piercy and Kevin Chappell find themselves at $7,200 despite being 35th and 36th in the OWGR. Seeing as they are both priced 50 names down the list suffice it to say there is probably some value in both names. Chappell is oft talked about as the strongest candidate on tour not to have broken through with a win at this time. Expect both players to have a solid foundation in my GPP lineups this week.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.