Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value.This week is fairly unique in that there are not many golfers who significantly stand out on the Salary vs. Vegas Odds chart which is rarely the case. Jerry kelly marks one of the few golfers who does stand out as a potential spot to find some value with his $6,400 price tag and 140:1 odds to win the tournament, Vegas views Kelly as the golfer with the highest likelihood to win in his price range which includes young star Wesley Bryan. Perhaps Vegas knows something we don’t but after Kelly missed the cut last week at the Sony I think his ownership will be deflated and this may be a decent spot to jump back on board. The other value stand out on this chart is Bud Cauley who is at a serious discount at his near minimum salary of only $6,000. With four straight missed cuts I don’t think Cauley is a player you need to risk much on, but taking a small clip of Cauley may have some upside if Vegas is right.
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. Right off the bat it should be glaringly obvious that Charles Howell III is a major stand out on this chart. If you’ve been following along over the past couple weeks, Howell’s ownership has skyrocketed as his combination of consistency and upside has attracted even the casual DFS player. This week should be no different as I expect Howell’s ownership to push nearly 30% after his recent performance at the Sony Open. On the flip side of things Phil Mickelson stands out in the low ownership category. Phil, coming off of multiple hernia surgeries in the off-season has been quoted in several articles saying he’ll be making a “game-time” decision as to whether or not he will play. Keep a close eye on the situation as it should scare away most people. If we do find out Phil is a full go late, expect his ownership to be uncharacteristically low which makes him a great GPP option in my opinion. The last player who stands out on this chart to me is Russell Henley who comes in with a projected ownership of only 8.76% which is a major uptick from roughly 5% ownership across the board last week. After his decent showing at the Sony I expect his ownership to jump, but most likely he’ll still be fairly under the radar.
Salary Vs. OWGR
I’m pleased to bring you a brand new chart that will become a regular feature on ‘The Charts’ series; Salary versus Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR). The OWGR are widely used by statisticians and analysts worldwide as a general measure of skill between various tours. While this isn’t a perfect assumption, plotting salary against the OWGR should give us a good visual aid designed to point out golfers who’s skill may not be reflected in their price. Right of the bat you’ll see John Peterson stands out, however this can be written off as a result of the hand injury Peterson suffered late in 2015 which kept him sidelined for most of the year last season. One player who stands out in a relevant way is John Curran, who is ranked 131st in the OWGR but has a salary that ranks him 129th in the field. On a weak where many of the worlds strongest golfers have chosen not to compete, Curran’s price is a bit deflated which could make him a great value play in GPPs despite his poor recent form. The last player who is definitely worth mentioning is William McGirt who has made his way into the top 50 of the OWGR. McGirt at only $7,400 this week is priced below the likes of Luke List, Hudson Swafford, Adam Hadwin, and Lucas Glover, all of which have not breached the top 150 of the OWGR. While many of the players priced above McGirt are certainly no slouches, look for McGirt to show up and play like a top 50 golfer in the world this week.
CareerBuilder Challenge Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.