The Charts – CIMB Classic
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week brings us Hudson Swafford as the obvious standout in the value category. With a 126:1 odds to win the event his odds rival those of names like Keegan Bradley at $7,500. The other very interesting standout is Ryo Ishikawa who seemingly comes in underpriced when compared to his Vegas odds at $7,500. I’m not sure what planet we’re living on that sees Ishikawa underpriced but the numbers don’t lie. Anirbahn Lahiri and Soomin Lee seem to lead the pack in overvalued players and may be good candidates to fade this week.
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for nearly an entire golf season. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on Twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. The obvious standout this week at the CIMB classic is Sergio Garcia who should come in very easily as the lowest owned player in his price range. As a golfer who can win on any given week he seems like a great option for GPPs this week. Paul Casey and Ryan Moore are the two that really stand out on this chart. Casey and Moore are both certainly going to be popular this week but they make a hard case for fading.
Vegas Odds Vs. Ownership Projections
This chart is always an interesting one, because there is a tendency within the golf industry to cluster ownership on a few golfers. This chart however makes an extremely compelling case for Marc Leishman who comes in with the best odds to ownership ratio in the field. With 111:1 odds, and expected ownership of 7-10% he makes a great play this week. It’s also clear that David Lingmerth will be a candidate that has low ownership and decent odds to win. It’s clear that Ian Poulter is probably not your man this week if you’re looking for value but there are plenty of other options.
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on Twitter.
CIMB Classic Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off: