Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week we see Adam Hadwin who is coming off a near win with a second place finish at the CareerBuilder appear as a serious standout on the Salary Vs. Odds chart. At 71:1 to win this week, Hadwin’s $6,200 price tag is sure to make him a great value. The second golfer who stands out is Martin Laird who at $6,500 is coming off a strong performance with a top ten last week, and boasts back-to-back top ten finishes at this event seems like a fantastic GPP play this week. The last golfer and probably the one I like most on this list is J.B. Holmes who is under priced at $8,200 when you factor in his 30:1 odds to win. J.B. Holmes has fantastic statistics when it comes to scoring and based on sheer talent alone belongs at a much higher price.
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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. I’ll sound a bit like a broken record here for the sake of anyone who is new this week, but again we can expect Charles Howell III and John Rahm to come in at very high ownership compared to their salary range and it shows in this chart with the subtlety of an elephant wearing a skirt. The not so obvious ownership standout however is Hudson Swafford who has had an interesting combination of consistency and upside after breaking through with his first PGA Tour win last week. Swaffords ownership was already creeping upward over the past few weeks so expect it to skyrocket as a result of his recent success.
When it comes to the flip side of the coin look to Louis Oosthuizen and Paul Casey. With Casey having largely disappointed his owners over the last two weeks I expect his ownership to continue to decline, while Louis’ ownership is almost never high as a result of his inconsistency and frequency of injury. Neither are good options this week in my opinion despite their low ownership. Brooks Koepka, however, is a golfer who definitely interests me, and could also have low ownership for his price and upside. As one of the best scorers on tour Koepka will be staple in many of my lineups this week knowing he is not going to be overly popular.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
Again we see Adam Hadwin rear his head as a golfer who could make for some serious value this week. His 111th rank in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) is not reflected in his price and as such he will be making his way into my lineups this week. Aaron Wise, Hunter Mahan, and John Rahm all seem to be in the alternative category with salaries that are higher than what is to be expected based on their OWGR. Rahm seems on track to become on of the top tier golfers this season having consistently performed above expectation, and former National Champion out of Oregon Aaron Wise doesn’t seem to far behind. I’ll let you formulate your own opinions on whether these golfers are worthy of being faded or not, as I don’t have strong opinions either way for both. Most likely I’ll have a small percentage of Wise and a decent clip of Rahm in my lineups.
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Farmers Insurance Open Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let author Brad Messersmith know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, he is always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following Brad on twitter.
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