Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. It’s another wacky week when it comes to DK pricing and as was the case over the past few weeks, there is some serious value as a result! We’ve been on the likes of under priced golfers like Louis Oosthuizen (T3), and Shane Lowry (T14) using the Salary Vs. Odds chart so lets see if we can keep that trend going. There are many obvious standouts this week, but none more so than Jim Furyk who comes in at the shockingly low price of $6,700. With better than 80:1 odds to win he’s an absolute steal and should make his way into your GPP lineups without a doubt. The next value candidate is one that probably caught your eye the first time you browsed the salary list. Brooks Koepka at only $7,100 has better than 50:1 odds to win which tops roughly 15 golfers who happen to be higher price than him. While he isn’t in great form and probably doesn’t belong on cash lineups this week, he is definitively skilled enough to win this event.
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. I suspect that this week is going to be a week where the ownership projections fluctuate heavily as the week goes on based on the sentiment of the industry. The week the golfer who catches my eye on this chart in a big way is Justin Thomas. Justin Thomas is only one event removed from winning back to back tournaments and we have an opportunity to get him at what could be under 10% ownership. Don’t overthink this one people. Take one of the best up-and-coming golfers on tour who is under priced, and will be low owned and fire away.
Salary Vs. OWGR
I’m pleased to bring you a brand new chart that will become a regular feature on ‘The Charts’ series; Salary versus Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR). Ok, I’ll admit it may not be brand new anymore but this chart has done wonders with adjusting my thinking when it comes to value. It’s important to note that as field strength changes, we typically see large fluctuations in salary and this scenario rings true this week. That being said Scott Piercy is nearly minimum price in this event full of stars, and yet comes in at the near minimum price! He’s made four straight cuts, albeit there were no high finishes in this stretch, but let’s not forget that we’re on a course where distance is an ally. Piercy, while not the longest driver on tour does average nearly 300 yards off the tee which puts him above average and at an advantage.
Genesis Open Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.