Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. It’s another wacky week when it comes to DK pricing and as was the case over the past few weeks, there is some serious value as a result! The biggest standout this week across several of the charts seems to be Anirban Lahiri who has roughly 80:1 odds to win and is priced at only $6,600 which certainly speaks to his value. He’s made four strait cuts with three top 25 finishes and a 7th place finish so he’s rounding into form and should make a great GPP play this week. On the flip side of the coin lands Cameron Tringale who got a lot of airtime last week playing in the final group with DJ and managing to secure an eighth place finish. That being said I don’t think now is the time to jump on him with terrible odds to win and what seems to an erroneous price.
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. The obvious standout here is Russel Knox who enters the week with a missed cut in his most recent showing. Prior to that he was playing exceptionally, and has some serious course history with three made cuts including a second and third place finish. If Knox’s ownership is as low as it seems he should make a brilliant play in GPPs.
Salary Vs. OWGR
The Salary Vs. OWGR chart has become a familiar friend at this point and is a great comparison between overall skill and salary which tends to show regularly how even some of the most skilled players can sometimes be well underpriced. The standouts on this chart are a bit less obvious this week which is interesting considering the pricing seems to have been adjusted a bit and is much less soft than we’ve seen over the past month or so. This week however, there seems to be some potential value in Brooks Koekpa, Danny Willett, and Soren Kjeldsen, all of whom find themselves seriously underpriced given their world rankings. Kjeldsen is probably the most surprising since he comes in at nearly the min salary despite the fact that he ranks just outside the top 50 in the OWGR. Koepka and Willett are no strangers to winning and with higher salaries probably don’t have the same value pop as Kjeldsen but are certainly worth considering carefully this week.
Honda Classic Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.