What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! What an Open Championship we were treated to. I hope you guys had a piece of Jordan Spieth and Matt Kuchar, despite my oversight on those guys last week. My bad.
Oh, CANADA!!!! Our home and native land!
Sorry, I won’t bore you with the entire anthem like they do at sporting events, but I sure am excited for my nation’s open! Even though the field this week suggests tour players feel otherwise.
The RBC Canadian Open will be held at Glen Abbey Golf Club in Oakville, (not Toronto) Ontario. It is a SHORT 7,200 yard Par 72. All four Par 5s are reachable in two by most, which will lead to plenty of eagles over four days. Typically, we see the winner at Glen Abbey finish around -15. There is plenty of scoring opportunities out there this week and the golfers who can pick apart these Par 5s will have the upper hand.
As for the key stats, Strokes Gained: Off the tee will be my highest weighted stat. There is not a ton of trouble on this course, but there is water if you miss badly. I do believe the bombers will have the upper hand this week. Last year we saw the course play super fast, with drives running out into water hazard. I can tell you from experience, Toronto and surrounding areas have been getting hammered with rain all summer long. Glen Abbey will be playing softer than ever. All of the Par 5 fall between 500-558, so Par 5 Efficiency will be used, combined with Par 5 Birder or Better Percentage. Lastly, I’ll toss in SG: Approach and Scrambling. SG:APP is a great way to predict who will have the most looks at birdies. Scrambling will become important, especially if golfers are trying to get up and down for birdie.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Dustin Johnson – $12,200
Talking about the top player in the world in an extremely weak field, how original. Let’s just say that people are worried about Dustin Johnson’s game and his long trip over from Royal Birkdale to play in an event he probably could care less about. He leads the “sit” count on FanShareSports right now, which is crazy. DJ has the potential to lap the field in terms of DraftKings scoring this week. For DJ, this course plays more like a Par 68 considering these Par 5s are all reachable in two. He has two runner up finishes at Glen Abbey in the past, showing he wants to contend at this event. What better time for DJ to get back on the horse than this week in Canada. Plus, who wouldn’t want a little more Paulina screen time.
Tony Finau – $9,500
Tony Finau seems poised for a win this season and he might not have a better opportunity than this week. His stats mirror DJ’s this week and they could not fit any better. His length and scoring ability on Par 5s should put Finau near the top of the leaderboard this week. He ranks 2nd in the field in Par 5 BoB%, 2nd in SG:OTT and 2nd in greens in regulation. He enters this week in incredible form making seven straight cuts. It’s time to go all in on Finau.
Gary Woodland – $7,900
Gary Woodland is Tony Finau lite. And Tony Finau is Dustin Johnson lite. So that makes Woodland DJ lite lite? Regardless, Glen Abbey seems like a perfect fit for another bomber who can score a ton on Par 5s. Comparing the same stats as Finau, Woodland ranks 3rd in Par 5 BoB%, 17th in SG:OTT, and 11th in GIR. His approach game has also been dialled in all season long. Woodland has made plenty of cuts this season, but has yet to finish inside the top 10 since March. He gets that monkey off his back this week.
Chad Campbell – $7,500
Welcome to Chad Campbell chalk week! Campbell has the third most tags on FanShareSports and at his price tag, he is going to soak up a ton of ownership in that range. There is merit to fading Campbell in GPPs because of his ownership, but his recent form, stats and course history suggest doing otherwise. He ranks 5th in my weighted rankings, driven by his three straight top 20 finishes. Over his last 12 rounds, Campbell ranks 18th in SG:APP and is the 2nd best scrambler in the field for the year. There is no reason to believe a finish outside of the top 20 is in the cards this week.
Ollie Schniederjans – $7,300
Ollie Schniederjans emerged onto the PGA scene at the Canadian Open two years ago with a T22 finish. Returning to Glen Abbey for the second time, I truly believe Ollie is going to make an even bigger splash this year. Two weeks ago at the John Deere Classic, he came out of the gates super hot and was the first round leader. He unfortunately fell off the pace, but recorded his seventh straight made cut. Ollie has the distance and Par 5 scoring ability to take advantage of these getable Par 5s. He also ranks 19th in SG:APP in this field for the year. With all the hype around Patrick Cantlay this week, I think it’s Ollie’s turn to finally get into contention late on Sunday.
Robert Garrigus – $6,600
Robert Garrigus lead the field last week at the Barbasol Championship in strokes gained T2G but came close to dead last in strokes gained putting. One of those stats has to give and I am going to gamble on the fact that his putter cannot remain that ice cold for another four rounds. Garrigus was continually hitting approach shots to inside 10 feet. If Glen Abbey plays as easy as it is anticipated to play, Garrigus could have another field day off the tee and approaching the green. Just make a damn putt Robert!
RBC Canadian Open Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Kevin Chappell – $9,000
This seems like a perfect week to build balanced lineups. Not only is there a lack of top talent besides DJ, but the ownership projects on the golfers in the $8K range is down right criminal. Currently, Kevin Chappell has seven tags on FanShareSports, which doesn’t even come close to the golfers priced ahead of him. Chappell arguably a top five golfer in this field, but is will likely come in at under 10% ownership. Pound the mid range this week if you want to make contrarian GPP lineups.
Shane Lowry – $8,600
Shane Lowry is a lot like Chappell this week. His price falls in a range where it seems like people are overlooking, even though some of the top talent in the field is here. Lowry has not been playing well lately, that’s obvious. But his stats for the season seem to fit what Glen Abbey is all about. He is 11th in SG:OTT and 22nd in SG:APP. He crushes Par 5s between 500-550, ranking 11th in the field in efficiency on those holes. Lowry only has THREEEEE tags on FanShareSports, and I am fairly certain his ownership is not going to exceed 10%. He is my favourite pivot play this week.
Harris English – $8,400
Harris English has been sneaky good lately, especially in his approach game. He ranks 1st in SG:APP and 3rd in DK points over his past 12 rounds in the field. Englihs has made five of six cuts, his only cut happening when he lost 8.4 strokes off the tee. That shouldn’t be too big of an issue at Glen Abbey with limited trouble off the tee. English only has three tags on FanShareSports, and is once again a reason why hammering the $8K range could be a profitable strategy.
Brandon Hagy – $6,900
At $6,900, finding a golfer who ranks 13th in SG:OTT and 9th in Par 5 BoB% is amazing. Brandon Hagy fits the bill as a golfer who can score a ton at Glen Abbey. Hagy has made four straight cuts entering the Canadian Open, so hopefully that blend of solid form and perfect course fit will lead to a steal at $6,900. If you are worried Power and Rodgers will soak up some ownership in this price range, Hagy seems like a logical pivot.
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Jim Furyk – $9,100
This does not seem like Jim Furyk’s tournament to win, or even contend in. With all the bomber talk and Par 5 scoring requirements needed to compete, it’s shocking to see Furyk’s impressive course history. With that said, the Furyk we are seeing this year isn’t like years past. He ranks 125th in the field in Par 5 BoB% and 107th in SG:OTT. Hard pass on Mr. 5 Hour Energy.
Robby Shelton – $8,100
The Mackenzie Tour superstar is beyond overpriced this week. He struggled earlier this season to make cuts on the PGA Tour, and for some reason figured going to Canada was his best route back to the PGA Tour. It goes without saying he shouldn’t be touched at $8,100. The odds that he repays his value are about the same as Mike Weir making the cut this week.
Kelly Kraft – $7,800
As soon as I heard Kelly Kraft get mentioned on a formidable podcast with a lot of pull, he instantly became an automatic fade. Kraft had his run, turned heads at The Greenbrier by gaining 10.9 strokes on approaches. His 64th finish at the John Deere seems like a more reasonable result for a golfer who ranks 43rd in SG:OTT and 103rd in Par 5 Eff. from 500-550 over his past 12 rounds.
Seamus Power – $6,800
Caveat – Seamus Power was in my staples section before I looked at FanShareSports and saw that he ranks 9th in tags for the week with 21. This is a pure ownership fade in GPPs. If Power approaches 15% in large tournaments, then you have to pivot elsewhere. He is a volatile golfer who is in good form, but can miss at cut any given week. Even though Glen Abbey isn’t the most difficult track on the PGA Tour, Power has never played it. Hell, I’m not sure he’s even been to Canada! It’s a whole different world up here…
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Danny Lee – $8,000
Danny Lee has WD from the John Deere Classic. These were words most of the DFS Golf community dreaded to see two weeks ago. He had to pull out of the event with a shoulder AND wrist injury. Obviously dealing with two injuries is never a good sign, but he was in England last week assumingly ready to play incase a golfer in the field bowed out. If he felt good enough to travel across the pond and wait around, I think the extra time off will make him even fresher for the Canadian Open. His price has dropped since the last time we saw him, but the game remains the same. High risk, high reward.
Nick Taylor – $7,900
Nick Taylor was showing real signs of life heading into the John Deere Classic. He had a T29 and T9 finish in the two weeks prior. His missed cut has definitely caused people to abandon ship as he only has seven tags on FanShareSports. Taylor has enough distance and a good approach game to score well at Glen Abbey. He also has the scoring ability on Par 5s needed at this course, ranking 50th in the field on Par 5s between 500-550. His high price will keep his ownership down. If there is a dark horse Canadian to emerge this week, my money’s on Taylor.
Stewart Cink – $7,400
The old man narrative was in full effect last week at the Open Championship, and those that rostered Stewart Cink took a hit with his missed cut. Three weeks ago at the Greenbrier, Cink was tagged 34 times on FanShareSports. His missed cut last week and now only has 11 tags on FanShare. He has been lights out with his approah game this year and is scoring very well on Par 5s. Don’t sleep on old man Cink at Glen Abbey, a course he finished 5th at back in 2015.
Gotta pour one out for my fellow countrymen here. Fun(ish) facts about some of the Canadian contingent.
You guys are well aware of the top Canadians in this field. Adam Hadwin, Graham DeLaet, Mackenzie Hughes, David Hearn and Nick Taylor are the most prominent names. Oh, and Mike Weir of course. But here are a few quick notes about other Canucks looking to take down their National Title.
Jared du Toit – $7,200
Was the story of the tournament last year, finishing T15 as an amateur. He has moved on from Arizona State and the shadow of Jon Rahm. He has made five straight cuts on the Mackenzie Tour.
Hugo Bernard – $6,900
How can you not like a guy named Hugo. He is the reigning Canadian Men’s Amateur champion. He tied du Toit in last week’s Mackenzie Tour event with a T7 result. Could easily be this year’s storyline.
Matt Hill – $6,700
Won the 2009 NCAA Div I Championship beating notables Kyle Stanley and Rickie Fowler on his way to the title. His game has gone in completely different directions than those two, struggling to make cuts on the Mackenzie Tour this season.
Austin James – $6,700
Not the same Austin from Canada who came T14 at last week’s Open Championship.
Garrett Rank – $6,600
For a long time has been one of Canada’s best amateurs. Made the cut here last season. Is an NHL referee in the offseason.
Bryn Perry – $6,600
Is a PGA of Canada pro, so don’t go near this guy. I’m sure Bryn would say sorry if he missed a cut for you.
Brad Fritsch – $6,500
I cannot confirm, but he is either a massive Ottawa Senators fan or is sponsored by the team. He should not be the lowest owned Canadian golfer in this field. Made five straight PGA cuts at the beginning of the year. Since then…ugly.
Thanks for reading The RBC Canadian Open preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!