The Charts – RSM Classic
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
The results of the Salary Vs. Vegas Odds chart are very interesting this week as we have some standouts who are definitely not going to be on most people’s radar at all. The first of which is Nick Taylor who has a shocking 80:1 odds to win this event and is priced at a mere $6,100. What does Vegas know about Nick Taylor that we don’t you might be asking? When you unpack Nick Taylor you really won’t see much but recently Nick has made three straight cuts, finished top twenty five twice, and currently sits ranked 57th in the FedEx cup. I won’t be going overboard on Nick Taylor but I’ll be definitely taking some shares of him for sure this week.
The other value standout when comparing odds and salaries is Michael Johnson at only $6,600 with a line set at 60:1 to win the tournament according to Vegas. This is one that I absolutely cannot explain because there seems to be nothing here. With no course history and only one recent result of eighteenth place I’m not sure what is causing Johnson’s Vegas line to stand out compared to his price but the charts don’t lie.
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for nearly an entire golf season. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information.
As was the case last week with Jon Rahm, we have a definite outlier in Charles Howell III this week. Last week he was over 25% owned in GPPs and I don’t expect that to change drastically after finishing seventh place. His course history is good and his last result was a top ten so expect CH3 to potentially be the highest owned golfer on the slate.
If you’re looking to be contrarian, Jim Furyk, Zach Johnson, or Si-Woo Kim may be your best bets. Furyk and Si-Woo were nothing short of disappointing last week and with little information about Si-Woo’s WD out there he is almost definitely going to come in at extremely low ownership. Zach Johnson has historically been bad at this event with three missed cuts in five tries and should fly under the radar. But Zach’s game fits this course extremely well and he may be the top talent in the field which means I’ll be taking a good clip of Johnson in GPPs this week.
Vegas Odds Vs. Ownership Projections
William McGirt is another golfer who has been nothing short of disappointing which is typically a recipe for low ownership. That being said McGirt is 67:1 to win this event, is underpriced at only $8,100 and does have two top twenty finishes in three events, despite the fact that they were prior to the fall swing season. Don’t overreact to McGirt’s one recent missed cut, I expect him to shake the rust off find a way to at least make the cut this week.
The other WM who stands out on this chart is Will MacKenzie who comes in with a projected ownership of only 2.83%. His tournament history has been bad with the exception of one second place finish, and he has made five of his last six cuts. With only 150:1 odds to win he doesn’t strike me as a golfer who will definitely be standing on the podium come Sunday but is certainly in play as a value GPP play with low ownership. As always good luck this week with your golf rosters and don’t forget, the charts don’t lie!
RSM Classic Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.