The Charts – Shriner’s Open
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
The salary vs. vegas odds chart is probably one of the best charts for identifying value out there. This week it would seem as though Bud Cauley is one of the true standouts when reviewing the chart. With Vegas odds of 101:1 to win his price would be more reflective of his odds if he were priced in the mid $7k range. The other obvious standout who appears to have some serious value is Adam Hadwin who sets up nicely on this course and has outstanding projections in my model. Hadwin seems like a great candidate for a low owned GPP value.
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for nearly an entire golf season. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information.
At this point in time the two major standouts in this chart are John Rahm and Ryo Ishikawa who both enter this event with supreme form which is a recipe for high ownership. If you’re looking for low ownership in the high salary range Francesco Molinari is your golfer, and in the lower ranges Cody Gribble and Graham DeLeat seem to fit the bill. That being said, I think guys like Ryo Ishikawa and John Rahm who are going to likely come in at high ownership are probably going to be chalky for good reason and should remain in consideration this week. Don’t chase low ownership in Gribble and Molinari who are both overpriced this week.
Vegas Odds Vs. Ownership Projections
You may be a bit surprised by this chart, but the obvious standout when comparing Vegas Odds to projected ownership is Jason Bohn who comes in at only 126:1 to win the tournament. With a $6,200 price tag I’ll be overlooking some of the poor recent play knowing he’s finished top ten at this tournament three tries in his last four appearances with two second place finishes in that stretch. The last guy who really stands out here is David Lingmerth who has also had a recent stretch of mediocre results. With such low expected ownership for Lingmerth, I’ll take some risk and jump back on him hoping he’s able to bounce back on a course that fits his game well.
Shriners Hospital Open Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.