Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This is what this article series is all about: VALUE! Matt Jones is a player that isn’t being mentioned at all this week and he makes perfect sense at only $6,700. In a field where it’s hard to find players to roster in the $7k range without eating so much chalk you can’t breathe, Jones offers a nice GPP alternative who saves you some salary, has good potential to make the cut and has roughly 100:1 odds to win the tournament this week. The other standout this week is probably one who will indeed be chalky but is probably worth the dry taste in your mouth in Adam Hadwin who comes in with a $6,900 price tag and nearly 70:1 odds to win the tournament. Despite what I expect to be a popular play in Hadwin, I think this is a spot to get a guy who clearly has the game to win the tournament and is as inexpensive as they come in that category.
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. When it comes to ownership this week, there a few obvious standouts this early on, but you can expect there to be a large snowball effect in which a large percentage of people jump on a few select players causing ownership numbers to inflate quite a bit. My early guesses for ‘Snowball Effect’ candidates are Grayson Murray, Kyle Stanley, and Danny Lee, all of which are playing very solid golf. This doesn’t mean you should avoid them completely because looking elsewhere is a bit daunting this week with such a weak field in play. On the flip side, you might find some value in low ownership among guys like Billy Hurley, Russell Henley and J.B. Holmes, all of which I think make solid GPP plays given their deflated ownership numbers.
Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. There are a couple of very interesting names that show up on the OWGR chart this week that I plan on sliding into some GPP lineups without question. Adam Hadwin was mentioned earlier and the same holds true, but Wesley Bryan, and Si-Woo Kim make for an interesting discussion. Wes Bryan is one of the most skilled up-and-coming golfers in the world, which makes him a class golfer in this field save for a few names. Bryan has been slumping a bit since he nabbed his first win on tour a couple months ago, but look for him to bounce back at some point, and why not on a second shot course that should suit his game perfectly. The course fit narratives ring true for Si-Woo Kim as well, and as the 29th ranked golfer in the world I think the class golfer narratives works as well. With the upside needed to win this tournament if he’s on, Si-Woo is one that makes perfect sense in my mind.
Quicken Loans National Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.