RunGood RunDown Bermuda Championship 2021
Stats, Trends & Things You Don’t Need To Know
Course: Port Royal GC
Par 71 – 6,828 Yards
The Unique Course Situation
By this point in the week, you probably realize that Port Royal GC is one of the shortest courses on the PGA TOUR schedule and, in the first two editions, has strongly benefitted accurate drivers of the golf ball. There’s lots of ways to break this down, but here are the most accurate drivers in the field, who gain at least 0.60 strokes per round (Last 50 Rounds)
The Unique Field Situation
This field was intended to be 132 golfers. However, a plethora of WDs have forced officials to exhaust the alternate list and this event will not be filled. As of Tuesday morning, after Cody Gribble’s WD, there are 127 golfers in the field and that number will not increase. Your chances of getting 6/6 golfers through the cut is getting better by the moment.
The Anomaly of Brian Gay
Brian Gay is the ultimate Course Horse. With a win and a T3 in his two trips, his average finish (2.0) is the best of any golfer at any event with at least two starts. The problem for Gay, is every other event. In the 19 events between those two finishes, Gay missed the cut in 15 of them.
The Importance of Fantasy Points Gained
I spoke about this on the Monday DFS Preview, but I want to reiterate an important stat that we should really be leaning on more often. That stat is Fantasy Points Gained. Much like Strokes Gained, it takes the average for all players and if you do better than the field, you gain. If you do worse than the field, you lose.
I know he’s not in the field this week, but Sebastian Munoz is the perfect example of why this start is important. In each of his last two starts, he’s scored exactly 90.5 DraftKings points. Sounds great, right?! However, since the scoring at the CJ Cup was so good, he actually lost 5.7 fantasy points to the field average. However, at the ZOZO Championship, with scoring much more difficult, he gained 31.5 fantasy points to the field. This stat can be found on most RickRunGood.com tools.
With a weak (and shrinking) field, we are seeing prices that we’ve never seen on these golfers. Here are a few notables:
At $11,000, Matt Fitzpatrick is the most expensive he’s ever been and only the second time he’s been over $10,000. He finished T10 at the Palmetto Championship in the previous instance.
At $10,400, this is the most expensive Patrick Reed had been since the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic (okay, not that long ago). In the 15 instances he’s been $10,000 or more, Reed has gained fantasy points in eight of them, including each of the last four.
At $9,300, this is only the second time that Danny Willett has cracked $9,000 in an individual PGA TOUR event. The previous instance, the 2021 Corales Puntacana and he finished 8th.
This Week’s Winner
Let’s get goofy — the two winners of this event, Brendon Todd and Brian Gay, were $7,300 and $6,300 respectively when they won the event. I’ll make the case for one golfer at each price point who can win:
$7,300 – Matthew NeSmith. It’s literally the best approach players in this field of any golfer with at least 15 measured rounds in my database. He finished T14 at the Shriners and will need to find a decent putter to win this week.
$6,300 – Andres Romero. He has (2) Top 30s dating back to 2019 (oh boy) but both of them are at the Puerto Rico Open. That’s another seaside course that can get windy and maybe Romero loves the wind… I don’t know.
I’m not even really kidding all that much. Each week, I give away $100 on Jock MKT and it’s very easy to win. All you have to do, is comment with your Jock MKT username in the Power Hour Stream. That’s it. You can do it now.
If you don’t know about Jock MKT, it’s stock market DFS with lots of ways to make money. You can buy, sell and short shares of golfers during the event. The IPO (bidding) phase closes around 9pm ET on Wednesday.
Here’s how good of an investment Seamus Power has been:
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