The Italian Open – Golf Club Milano (2016)
I am fired up and ready to go for the Euro Tour event this week which takes us to The Italian Open for what will be far and away the toughest field this event has ever seen. Tough field and big names with the PGA Tour taking this week off seems to have translated to some nice size tournaments on Draftkings so I’ll be looking to take advantage. Below is a list of golfers who have hot and cold course history and recent form. Keep in mind we have one data point from 2015 to use for course history so it needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
Hot Course History:
Martin Kaymer ($11,500) – Martin Kaymer was bested in a playoff by Rikard Karlberg in what was this event’s only appearance on this course last year. With solid recent form and good course history in the one data point we have Kaymer is likely to be the most popular player on the board this week so tread carefully.
Rikard Karlberg ($7,400) – With only one year of course history to use, why not go with Karlberg who has the best course history in the field with a win in the only recent appearance on this course? Karlberg won last year in exciting fashion with a sudden death playoff win, and has been a DFS staple for most of the year which makes him in play this week for sure.
Cold Course History:
Soren Kjeldsen ($9,300) – Again take this with a grain of salt, but Kjeldsen managed to miss the cut at this event last year. It won’t be enough to make me fade Kjeldsen based on the one poor result but it certainly is worth taking note of.
Richard Bland ($7,500) – I will definitely be rostering Richard Bland despite his one missed cut at this event last year. I think his ownership should be deflated a bit as a result and Bland is too good a value to pass up based on a result from only one previous year. I won’t be going overboard with Bland but I’m also not going to over react to one missed cut either.
Hot Recent Form:
Rafael Cabrera-Bello ($10,100) – As one of my favorite plays in many of the WGC events this year Cabrera-Bello has made his way onto many of my rosters this year. With back-to-back fifth place finishes in his two most recent events I like Cabrera-Bello in a big way this week because he certainly has the talent to win this star studded event.
Scott Hend ($9,000) – You can’t mention recent form without mentioning Scott Hend this week, and as a result I think his ownership is going to land on the higher side of things. That being said, Hend has a fourth place and second place finish in his last two events and hasn’t missed a cut in seven straight events. He might be high owned this week, but it’s probably for good reason.
Cold Recent Form:
Francesco Molinari ($9,500) – As one of the few higher priced golfers who calls Italy his home country I like Molinari a bit this week despite the fact that he has finished no better than twenty-second in ten weeks. I’m a bit torn and I think Molinari only makes sense in GPP formats, but he certainly has some upside on his home turf.
Andy Sullivan ($8,900) – I’m not sure what’s happening to Andy Sullivan whose name is typically synonymous with consistency, but Sullivan has now missed three straight missed cuts. Until I see something more out of Sullivan I will be fading him in all my lineups.
Do you have questions about golfers who aren’t in this article? Get more weekly analysis and answers to any of your questions by following me on Twitter @BradMessersmith