Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week you will find that Brian Harman is our first standout with roughly 86:1 odds to win on average across multiple sites, and a salary that is only $300 above minimum price. Some of this may have something to do with his recent win on an unbelievable birdie putt on the eighteenth hole last week, but he also makes an interesting GPP play as a golfer who is coming in with his A-game. The other very interesting standout that I think makes a phenomenal GPP play is Ross Fisher, who enters this week with four straight made cuts internationally and three top tens in that same stretch. He’s definitely playing some of his best golf coming into this tournament and could make a fantastic GPP option with the upside he’s shown.
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. This week we have a few obvious standouts in the initial round of ownership projections, the first and most obvious of which is Henrik Stenson. Despite the low ownership I’m going to choose to fade Stenson because of how severely poor he’s been playing. Ordinarily I’d take this as an opportunity to hop on a golfer with low ownership and the skill to show some upside but I don’t really feel that is the situation with Stenson at this point. Until I see something more out of Stenson I will be staying away. The other golfer who I think will be low owned compared to the others in his salary range is Patrick Reed who after missing three straight cuts found his way into the top 15 last week. Having shown a glimmer of upside, Patrick Reed will definitely make his way into my GPP lineups in hopes that his course history will serve to keep his ownership deflated as well.
Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. Last week’s OWGR comparison looked to be very fruitful as Alexander Noren went into Sunday near the top of the leaderboard, however his final round 77 may have hurt a bit. That being said, guess who is right back at it this week? Most people who rostered Noren will choose to stay away after a rotten Sunday afternoon like that, but I am going to go right back to the well here. Noren is the 12th ranked golfer in the world for a reason, and even though he didn’t last week, if Noren can put together four straight solid rounds he has the talent to win on a big stage like this. The other standout I feel is worth mentioning is Jon Rahm, who on paper looks to be overpriced based on his OWGR, but I say you can toss this type of information right out the window when it comes to Jon Rahm. Easily the most talented rookie on tour that we’ve seen in some time, Rahm is in a class of his own at this point and at this rate will find his way into the top ten in the OWGR very quickly.
The PLAYERS Championship Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.