Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week we find one of the most overlooked golfers on the week showing up (as he should) on the Odds vs. Salary charts. Billy Horschel is only four weeks removed from winning the AT&T Byron Nelson and is coming off of a fourth place finish at the St. Jude last week. What’s not to like about a guy who is near the minimum price, has never finished worse than 32nd at a U.S. Open, and has nearly 80:1 odds to win? The next guy who is as much a standout as Horschel was based on his odds and salary, is Martin Kaymer. Contrary to Horschel though, Kaymer is coming in playing one of the worst stretches of golf we’ve seen from this international superstar. With roughly 60:1 odds to win and a $7,000 price tag, Kaymer’s poor recent form may be worth overlooking in order to take a flyer on a golfer who Vegas believes has some upside in GPPs.
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. As you may have already been able to tell, the ownership numbers for this chart were adjusted once already since the salaries are out, and the result is fairly polarizing. You will find golfers like Rory McIlroy who just isn’t being talked up at all (perhaps as a result of having played only twice in the last twelve weeks). On the contrary we have Rickie Fowler and Kevin Kisner who are both rapidly becoming the chalk this week. Kisner’s all around game is something I’m seeking at a course like Erin Hills so I’m willing to eat the chalk there, however Rickie Fowler leaves me a bit more hesitant. As a golfer who has certainly had his fair share of success this year, Fowler has also found trouble regularly which is most likely going to lead to some punishing results this week. As for low ownership, Henrik Stenson is a pretty safe bet as the lowest owned golfer at the top end of the slate. He comes in with some decent performances overseas recently, however I still find myself leaning towards fading Stenson. Henrik over the course of the last season has had some struggled on seriously difficult courses, and Erin Hills certainly fits the mold.
Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. I suspect before reading this article you’ve probably taken the time to browse the list of golfers and salaries at this point, and I equally suspect you’ve glanced past the first golfer I’ll mention here without a second thought. Danny Willett is currently ranked 28th in the OWGR and has nearly 250:1 odds to win the tournament. It’s been a long downhill slippery slope of bad results for Danny Willett as of late including a WD from The Players Championship recently. I won’t advocate taking a second mortgage to put it all on Willett to win this week, however I think a golfer of this caliber is certainly worth a second look given his price. The other golfer is one that you will have heard me mention (probably hundreds of times) before if you’ve been following my work closely. Somehow nobody seems to have adjusted to the fact that Francesco Molinari has risen all the way to 16th ranked in the OWGR, and yet he is only $7,000 in price. Why people have not begun to join me in piling ‘$Molinari’ (pronounced Money Molinari) into everything just yes has continued to astound me. He’s making cuts with some serious consistency and is showing upside with that consistency we’re not used to seeing out of Molinari on American soil, yet his price continues to stay consistently low, and I continue to reap the benefits….and you should too.
U.S. Open Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.