Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week we find a few very interesting outliers when it comes to the Vegas Odds. One of the best value plays on the board in my opinian is Harold Varner who has better than 100:1 odds to win this event and finds himself near the minimum price. As a young upcoming golfer with supreme talent he should make a great GPP play this week. The other outlier is Graeme Mcdowel who seems seriously mispriced at only at only $6,500 with roughly 65:1 odds to win this event. While I don’t necessarily love “G-Mac” this week it’s hard to overlook the discount we are getting when rostering him.
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. Right off the bat you will notice some very strange monstrosities. The first and probably most obvious one is Dustin Johnson who will be very polarizing this week after withdrawing on the first tee at Augusta. I suspect his ownership will be drastically reduced and after a month off should make a phenomenal GPP play this week. If Dustin Johnson is even close to 90% I suspect he will find himself in contention come Sunday and that is a risk I’m willing to take. After all, it’s very rare we get a chance at the top ranked golfer in the world at under 15% ownership with the possibility of under 10% ownership. The other standout you’ll notice is Patrick Reed who has recently missed his third straight cut. Normally a grinder on tour who rarely misses cuts, Reed has been very cold as we head into major season. I suspect most people will be turned off to the idea of roster Reed after having been burnt which might make this a great time to “Zig” while others are “Zagging.” At some point I suspect Reed will find his game and I want to be early to the party when he does.
Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. This week marks possibly one of the biggest outliers we’ve ever seen when comparing salary versus the Official World Golf Rankings. Alexander Noren is the 12th ranked golfer in the world(!) and is only $6,600 in salary. What’s not to love about that discount? Well his recent form is not to love, given he hasn’t been playing well, but I’m going to be willing to overlook that fact knowing that Noren has it in his game to take this trophy home.
Wells Fargo Championship Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.