Note: I am in the process of moving, so creating videos will be difficult over the next few days. I will create text posts instead with my picks for each night. Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
There is no denying that the early slate is full of bad match-ups. I don’t like to make a habit of targeting pitchers vs. the Blue Jays, Royals and Dodgers. However, we are going to have to find the best of the worst.
The Clayton Kershaw ($14,500) situation will really determine a lot on the early slate. I am starting to fall into “wait and see” mode with every passing day that he gets scratched from a start. That might indicate that his “injury” is more serious than previously believed. His price tag and match-up with the Angels is starting to worry me more than just a few days ago. However, even with all that being said, there is no possible way to fade Kershaw if he pitches tomorrow. His floor is just simply too high to pass up on this gauntlet of a slate.
Unfortuantely, after Kershaw this slate really goes downhill quickly. I do like Andrew Heaney ($8600) who is averaging 22.4 DK points a game this season. His sub-2.00 ERA should allow him to be effective against the Dodgers.
The “best of the worst” seems to be Yordano Ventura ($6600). Only Kershaw has a higher K/9 than Ventura over the L30. No the matchup is not ideal, but Ventura has high upside on a slate where you can’t find it.
The late slate appears to be much deeper and is headline by Jacob deGrom ($11,800). I am high on deGrom tonight who has been dazzling and coming off a stellar start against the Dodgers, going 7.2 IP and only allowing two hits while striking out 8 batters. That was good for 30.9 DK points. The Nationals are meddling at the bottom of the league in wOBA since the second half started with one of the league’s highest strikout rates. That’s a killer combination for a guy like deGrom.
I am not nearly as high on Dallas Keuchel ($11,200), however. Don’t get me wrong, Keuchel is the real deal but I couldn’t use him over deGrom. Keuchel faces the Diamondbacks who are a top 10 hitting team recently and for the entire season. They own the 8th best BA against LHP this season, including four guys batting over .300 vs. LHP this season.
My favorite play dollar for dollar is Joe Ross ($7500) who is a high strikeout pitcher with massive upside. His price tag is more than fair considering his last three starts have returned 17, 15 and 35 DK pts. The real boost comes from the faceoff with Mets who rank dead last in wOBA since the second half.
I am buying hard on Aaron Nola ($5700) who has been electric in his first two career starts. He scored 19 and 21 in his first two games. He faces the Braves who’s struggles recently are well documented. They are 26th in wOBA in the second half. His price tag is dirt cheap and has one of the higher floors in that tier.