What’s going on fantasy golf fans?! Did you survive the Waste Management Open? Hope you got a piece of the recommended Gary Woodland and helped increase the bankroll for another doozy of an event.
We move onto one of the more famous tournaments on the PGA Tour schedule – the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Unfortunately, it’s a non-traditional event with a 54 hole cut, where only the top 60 and ties will move on after the players play three different courses. The rotation will be Pebble Beach (Par 72), Monterey Peninsula (71), and Spyglass Hill (72). All three courses are similar in length, ranging around 6,800 yards. The extended cut will put more golfers in play this week, limiting the risk of those wildy variant golfers we love. Ball striking will once again be at a premium. With 54 holes guaranteed, golfers giving themselves more scoring opportunities will eventually rise to the top. It’s difficult to come up with unique stats that can cover all three courses, so sticking guys who have shown solid tee to green games seems logical. The Par 5s are very reachable at all of these courses as well, making birdies and eagles even more abundant.
Stats for the Week
SG: Par 5
Birdie or Better Gained
SG: Off the Tee
2017 – Jordan Spieth (-19)
2016 – Vaughn Taylor (-17)
2015 – Brandt Snedeker (-22)
2014 – Jimmy Walker (-11)
2013 – Brandt Snedeker (-19)
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Dustin Johnson – $11,700
What is not to love about DJ this week. He is super expensive, but it is warranted when you look at all of our favorite factors. DJ has three top 5s in the past four years here and won in 2010. He won his last time out on the PGA Tour at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He also played well in Abu Dhabi, coming T9. By now, you know all too well about DJ’s stats that going over them is useless. He is elite in all aspects of the game. There is plenty of value options this week that makes his enormous salary still easy to fit in.
Rory McIlroy – $11,100
I was hoping Rory would be slightly cheaper this week, maybe below Jordan Spieth. But it’s not, and perhaps that will keep his ownership in check a bit more. Rory is clearly back and he has shown that with two stellar outings in the middle east – T3 and a runner up. Taking a couple of months off to rest and get healthy certainly worked. People will be excited to roster Rory, but with the other elite options, I cannot see his ownership exceed 25%.
Patrick Cantlay – $8,900
Cantlay infrequent schedule is off to an expected start so far, limiting his hype. He has only played in two events, with only one top 15 at the Tournament of Champions. It seems as though people were expecting him to have a win already, as he is garnering zero attention on FanShare Sports. Cantlay has all the tools to pick up his second career win this week. He ranks 8th in the field on SG:Par 5 and 11th in SG:Ball striking over his last 24 rounds. He finished T9 here way back in 2013 before he became the elite golfer he is today.
Brandt Snedeker – $8,100
Sneds is a two time winner of this event and is only $8,100. Sure, one of the times he one half the field got whipped out due to gale force winds, but he still thrives at Pebble and will likely do so again. Sneds has improved upon his results in each tournament this season, capped off with a T23 at the Waste Management Open last week. I have mentioned this in previous articles – Sneds is still searching for his Masters invite and a win this week would have that invitation in the mail on Monday.
J.B. Holmes – $7,400
Holmes was hated two weeks ago, missed the cut at the Waste Management Open, and now returns to a tournament he has had tremendous success at. He has gained the 10th most strokes on the field at this event over the past five years. Holmes has made five straight cuts, including a T10 in 2015 and T11 in 2016. Holmes is only a week removed from a 4th place finish at the Farmers.
Austin Cook – $7,000
Cook is one of two major mispricings this week, becoming an incredible value play. Cook has failed to miss a cut in his rookie season, 8/8, and has already picked up a win. He played decent at the WMO, coming T31 and gaining strokes in all five major categories. Cook is great birdie maker, dominates Par 5s and hits plenty of greens in regulation. One of two locks for cash this week.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello – $6,900
The next lock in cash is Rafa Cabrera-Bello. How this guy is only $6,900 is beyond me. He is currently the 21st ranked player in the world, but is priced as someone who is outside the top 200. His recent form in Europe is excellent. He game T6 in Dubai two weeks ago, and ended 2017 with a T2 in Hong Kong. Just like Cook, Bello is a great ball striker and will have a ton of birdie looks this week. His price tag is a joke and needs to be taken advantage of.
AT&T Pebble Beach Interactive Data
Note these tools are FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Branden Grace – $9,100
Branden Grace will never be one of the more popular options, especially at $9,100. Since the last time he was eligible for a PGA DFS slate, Grace has gone out and won the Nedbank Golf Challenge, and finished 2nd at another South African event. Sure, the fields are poor, but the form is there for Grace. He hasn’t played the Pro-am in the last five years, but that won’t scare me off of a likely sub 10% owned, high caliber golfer.
Kevin Kisner – $8,200
It only took a couple weeks off for people to forget about Kevin Kisner. Currently sitting at zero tags on FanShare Sports, it will be tough for Kisner to gain traction this week. He hasn’t played in a while, and when he did play the results were mediocre at best. Add the fact that Brandt Snedeker is the golfer priced directly below Kisner, and you have the makings of a sub 10% week. Kisner finished T10 at this event last year and has the tee to green game to repeat that result.
Charley Hoffman – $7,300
According to FanShareSports.com, Kevin Streelman is out of the gates first toward being the chalk in the low $7,000s. Streelman has seven tags compared to Charley Hoffman’s one. Hoffman is underpriced once again, and early trend in 2018. He does have terrible course history, missing the cut both times he’s teed it up. However, his recent results suggest he has all aspects of his game clicking. He ranks 16th in my weighted stat model and will be easy to be overweight on when his ownership is below 15%.
Sean O’Hair – $6,700
With some early chalk forming in the mid $6,000s with Russell Henley, Russell Knox and Billy Horschel, O’Hair seems like a solid pivot option. O’Hair is a cut maker and a golfer who tends to play well at certain events. The Pebble Beach Pro-Am is one of these events. He has made four of five cuts, including a T16 and T29. These results don’t jump off the page, but if you want to make a move at the bottom of the board, rostering a guy who will likely play all four rounds seems like a valid option.
Tom Hoge – $6,600
Just like O’Hair, Hoge becomes and intriguing option due to the likely chalk in the mid $6,000s. He ranks 13th in my weighted stat model thanks to having the best strokes gained approach number over the past 12 rounds. He also missed the cut last week at the WMO because his putter did not show up. No one will be on Hoge, despite already recording two top 15s in 2018.
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Jon Rahm – $11,400
Taking a stance at the top is hard, but it’s required if you want to take down a large GPP. I’ve been struggling with my player pool becoming too large in the last couple of weeks, so cutting guys out at the top has to be done. This week, it’s Rahm. His price tag is steep, only $300 less than DJ. He has also lost 7.8 strokes combined on approach shots over the last two weeks. His putter saved him at the Waste Management, gaining an unheard of 7.4 shots on the green. If the putter doesn’t show up, and his approach game doesn’t turn around, this could be a disaster in the making.
Adam Scott – $8,700
This is the first we have seen of Adam Scott in 2018. Red flag number one. And when we have seen him he has played terrible. Scott had the worst years of his career in 2017 so it will take some time before people starting feeling comfortable with him again. He missed the cut in his last event, the Australian PGA Championship, in a weak field in his native country. There are too many question marks surrounding Scott to pay this steep price.
James Hahn – $8,400
There is no doubt Hahn has been playing well this year. He has made every cut this season, finished 2nd at the Sony and came T11 last week at the WMO. However, Hahn is one of the streakiest guys on tour and I’ve said this before, is a much better play when he is in the high $6,000 range. His tag this week means you are expecting a top 20, which is far from guaranteed with Hahn. He also gained 5.2 strokes putting last week, inflating his finishing position.
Beau Hossler – $8,300
Everything I just said about Hahn can apply to Beau Hossler. He has been making cuts, popping into the leaderboard once and a doing it while priced in the low $7,000s. He gained 5.6 strokes on the greens last week on route to a T17. Beau has failed to gain strokes on approaches in his last five events. His $1,300 price jump to go along with his shady recent results is enough to keep me well away from him at Pebble.
This week is one of those weeks where the DraftKings Pricing algorithm decided to take phone it in. Here are a list of golfers I believe are incredibly mispriced and should be played at your own risk.
Sabbatini ($7,700), Watney ($7,700), Piller ($7,600), Putnam ($7,600), Singh ($7,500), Kelly ($7,500), Axley ($7,400), Baddeley ($7,400) and the list continues to go on and on in the $7,000 range.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Jordan Spieth – $10,700
Boring Spieth playing in the wild and crazy atmosphere that was the Waste Management Open didn’t sit right. Highly doubt that had anything to do with his performance, especially because he missed the cut due to his putter. That is now four straight events he has lost strokes putting. It’s mind blowing that someone that is so good with the flat stick can be in a rut for this long. Regardless, Spieth is returning to an event he has dominated at in the past, winning last year and having two other top 10s. He’s cheaper than usual and is a good putting week away from a win.
Shane Lowry – $7,500
Lowry’s missed T65 at the WMO was less than ideal. What was worse was the fact he lost 6.2 strokes on the green, his worst putting performance of his career. Lowry is priced with some of the ugliest names in the field, thanks to DraftKings wonky pricing week. That should give him a slight boost in ownership, but I can see many by-passing this entire range to go find value. Lowry has made three straight cuts at this event, and if the wind picks up, he will gain an advantage on the field.
Brandon Harkins – $7,000
Harkins has turned heads early this season with two top 15 finishes. His missed cut at the Waste Management Open stung DFSers looking to cash in on his hot streak. Typically, low owned guys who burn people are the easiest to move on from. Harkins is in a crowded price range and likely won’t see his ownership exceed 5%. He could easily regain the form he had from a couple of weeks ago and reward those who held tight with another top 20 finish.
Thanks for reading the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview article! Follow me on Twitter @EPattersonFS for more DFS and golf betting talk! Also, don’t forget to check out FanShareSports.com to get a full look at who the DFS golf community is talking about this week!
Good luck this week everybody!!
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