Don’t skip this week! Yes, this is a weaker field but – the cash you can win from betting or playing fantasy golf for the Bermuda Championship is just as green as the cash you can win at Augusta National!
Course Key Stats
6800 yards, par 71. Believe it or not – this is the longest course on the island of Bermuda. The only course on the regular PGA Tour schedule that is shorter than Port Royal Golf Course is Pebble Beach Golf Course. Thus, there will be an emphasis on shot shaping and playing out of the fairways. So, it is no surprise that in the first two editions the strongest correlated stat to success at Port Royal was driving accuracy (Source: Course Key Stats RickRunGood.com). Past winners were Brian Gay and Brendon Todd – two very accurate drivers of the golf ball.
From this field- Golfers in best course fit model:
- Mito Pereira
- Guido Migliozzi
- Patrick Rodgers
- Seamus Power
- Brian Stuard
$10K+ Range
Matt Fitzpatrick (Salary: DraftKings – $11K) – Just won last week on the European Tour (7th European Tour victory, no PGA Tour wins)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (Salary: DraftKings – $10.7K) – Back-to-back top 5’s at a European Tour event and a Korn Ferry Tour event. My concern here is that he is not very accurate off the tee which can get him into some trouble at Port Royal.
Mito Pereira (Salary: DraftKings – $10.5K) – He has gained DraftKings points on the field (DK Points Gained column of Fantasy Data view on Golfer Profiles) in 6 of the 7 events since his Rocket Mortgage Classic win. In the 6 that he’s gained, he’s gained at least 21 DraftkKings points on the field. This means he’s been a good value play.
Patrick Reed (Salary: DraftKings – $10.4K)
Seamus Power (Salary: DraftKings – $10.2K) – A valuable pivot off of Mito if you need one. He has been the 12th best player on the PGA Tour in the last 50 rounds (Stats tab on Holy Grail tool, remove filter of just this week’s field). Of the 12, he is one of 6 golfers hitting at least 62% of his fairways.
$9K Range
Hyden Buckley (Salary: DraftKings – $9.9K) – After missing the cut at the Fortinet Championship, he had back to back top 10’s at Sanderson Farms and Shriners by gained strokes off the tee and by gaining strokes on approach. I do worry about his putting, 8 rounds he seems to be either great or terrible.
Patrick Rodgers (Salary: DraftKings – $9K) – He popped up on the Course Fit Tool. He was able to drive well and putt well at the Barbasol Championship (T5) and at the Fortinet Championship (T6). To me, he has the type of skill set golfer that can get hot with a lot of T6’s and a lot of missed cuts. Though the price is scary this week, he might be a slate breaker who is getting overlooked.
Taylor Pendrith (Salary: DraftKings – $9.1K) – He’s a great driver of the golf ball. He has only lost strokes off the tee once in the 8 measured tournaments that he has on the PGA Tour. The problem is that he has lost strokes on approach in 7 of 8 which is both unique and concerning. I’ll be taking a more cautious approach on him for this week.
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$8K Range
Denny McCarthy (Salary: DraftKings – $8.5K) – He can play well at courses that are 7,000 yards that are shorter. He won’t blow you away off the tee, especially with distance, but he can hit shorter clubs into greens and focus more on the putter.
Stephen Jaeger (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K) – His last measured round on a course this short was in June of 2019
Scott Stallings (Salary: DraftKings – $8.6K) – Has played the most rounds of golfers in this price range at courses that are 7,000 yards or shorter. He can lean into the ball striking and hopefully he will find a good putting week.
Sahith Theegala (Salary: DraftKings – $8.8K) –Stats view Holy Grail this field last 12 rounds sort by SG TOT, he is the top player in the 8K range. The putter is scary, the fact that he only hits 54% of his fairways, also scary.
David Lipsky (Salary: DraftKings – $8K) – He does hit a lot of fairways but his approach game is not very strong in the last 12 rounds.
Garrick Higgo (Salary: DraftKings – $8.3K) – Since his win at the Palmetto Championship, he has been losing a stroke per round. No golfer with as many rounds as he does has lost as many strokes as he has since his win.
$7K Range
Mark Hubbard (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – Trends Tool on RickRunGood.com has a section called breakout candidates which highlights golfers who are hitting it well from tee-to-green and putting below their own personal baseline, calling it “unlucky.” Mark Hubbard looks prime to break out (along with Mito Pereira, Kramer Hickok Dylan Wu, and David Lipsky). If they just putt to their own personal average, they would see a significant progression.
Russell Knox (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K) – His recent form hasn’t been great but he does show up when looking at courses that are 7,000 yards or shorter, golfers that are fairway-finders, or when looking at his own history at this course (finished 16th and 11th in the last 2 years). He is great with his irons and wedges but his putter is a mystery. If this turns into windy conditions and ball-strikers prevail, Russell Knox will likely be valuable.
Matthew NeSmith (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K) – Same situation as Russell Knox, he is a great ball striker but the putter is very poor. Bermuda is not his worst surface so if we can get a 0 putting week from Matthew NeSmith maybe he can contend.
Hank Lebioda (Salary: DraftKings – $7.5K) – Unfortunately he has not been the same golfer as he was when he was piling up Top 10’s. He does have a 3rd place finish and a 16th place finish here if you’re desperate.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (Salary: DraftKings – $7.5K) – He finished T2 last month on the European Tour and finished 11th here last year.
Brian Stuard (Salary: DraftKings – $7.1K) – Has missed 4 cuts in a row but if there’s any place to play him it would be here where you get rewarded for hitting fairways and you don’t have to be long.
$6K Range
Michael Gligic (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – Finished 11th here last year, better than a lot of his peers in his price range
Dylan Wu (Salary: DraftKings – $6.5K) – Popped up as one of the breakout candidates earlier
We will likely cover this tier more on the Wednesday Live Show
Monday Custom Model for Bermuda Championship
Recent Rounds: 12
Accuracy: 35%
Driving Distance: 15%
Strokes Gained Approach: 25%
Birdie Or Better: 25%
- Mito Pereira
- Austin Eckroat
- Chad Ramey
- Davis Riley
- Hayden Buckley
- Bo Hoag
- Seth Reeves
- Adam Hadwin
- Lee Hodges
- Seamus Power
My thoughts on this Custom Model: How many of these players can your dad name? Probably none, and that’s a good thing for DFS purposes this week.
Don’t forget: Live Chat on my YouTube channel on Wednesday at 12 PM ET.
Good luck this week!