Here are NBA Projections! Below you will find both the online and downloadable versions of my NBA Projections. These are version 3.1 and have come through many changes and upgrades since the 2015-16 season. Note that we are still using last season’s data, since we don’t have anything for this year yet. As more games get played, we will transition everything to current year data. I would use these to projections to identify value play and those players who are in good matchups.
These projections take will take into account three main factors: recent performance, matchup and Vegas Line. Those three factors lend themselves very well to fantasy scoring.
5x, 6x, 7x – The amount of fantasy points a player needs to score to reach 5x, 6x and 7x value on his salary.
OVP – The amount of fantasy points a defense allows to that specific position. (1.4 means they allow 1.4x the league average).
ToLine – Tonight’s over/under according to Las Vegas.
Avg Line – The average projected o/u for that team according to Las Vegas.
%5x, %6x and %7x – The likelihood that a player reaches those value milestones.
Mean – Average fantasy points scored by that player.
StdDev – The mathematical calculation for standard deviation.