Head over to our PGA Tournament History chart to see who has played well here in the past!
The second leg of the Fed Ex Cup Playoffs comes from TPC Boston this week. TPC Boston is a 7238 yard Par 71 course in Norton, Massachusetts. The course has large open fairways with playable rough and small greens. Fairway bunkers and cross hazards are in play on most tee shots, but longer hitters can avoid them with their length. Greenside bunkers and water protect almost all of the small greens, which are fairly flat with a couple of exceptions. Golfers won’t have to deal with crazy multi level, multi breaking putts like they did last week. There are only three par 5s but two of them are easily reachable for everyone and the third can be reached by the long hitters. Birdies are going to be a regular occurrence so golfers will need to shoot low every round to be in contention for the win. The weather looks good for the week but winds could be between 10-15 mph every day.
Looking at the course description above, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats, current form, and course history to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups this week.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P), which is a key stat every week.
Birdie or Better % (BoB%):
Many birdies are going to be needed to be in contention this week. The course is fairly easy so these pros should be able to take advantage of it. The last 5 winners at TPC Boston finished no worse than 39th in BoB% for that year, with most winners being in the Top 10 in this stat. The winning score should fall between 15 under to 20 under so the leaders will need to birdie or eagle about 25% of all their holes played.
Par 5 Scoring (P5):
Even though there are only three par 5s on the course, there were around 400 birdies or better on the par 5s in 2014. The three par 5s were also the easiest three holes on the course last year. In the last 11 years the winner at TPC Boston has finished 1st in P5 scoring SIX times for that respective year. Three other winners finished 4th for the year in P5 scoring. Expect the winner to shoot around -10 on the par 5s for the week.
Driving Distance (DD):
Long hitters will have a distinct advantage this week with three reachable par 5s and two drivable par 4s. Hitting it long will also help avoid the fairway bunkers because most bombers will be able to take them out of play by driving over them. Hitting the ball in the rough shouldn’t be a problem if golfers have wedge in their hands and the rough is not very thick so missing fairways won’t be that big of a deal, as long as golfers hit it far.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G):
This stat is important every week but it has more value this week than usual. 8 of the last 11 winners at TPC Boston have finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in SG:T2G for the year they won.
Par 4 Scoring (P4):
The par 4s vary wildly in distance at TPC Boston with two being reachable and six being over 450 yards. Those six long par 4s are the six hardest holes on the course. Ten of the last eleven winners here have finished 29th or better in this stat for their respective winning years.
Green in Regulation % (GIR):
As stated before, many birdies are going to be needed to win. The easiest way to make birdie is to get it on the green in regulation. The greens are small and flat so if golfers get it on, birdies should be made. Bunkers and water protect most of the greens, so if golfers miss, bogey comes into play. Bogeys will hurt more than usual this week due to the course being less difficult. In 2013 at TPC Boston, the top 3 on the leaderboard finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in GIR for the year.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
***Even though Rose, McIlroy, and Spieth aren’t my four favorite high end picks, I would not fade them completely if you are doing multiple lineups. The top golfers in the world usually perform very well at this tournament on a yearly basis. I will be using all three in at least one lineup. Maybe more with Rose and Spieth.
Jason Day ($11,800):
It’s going to be a lot of fun watching Day, Spieth, and Rory battle it out for the next decade or more. Currently, Day is the best player in the world. Don’t believe me? Look at his last 2 months on Tour. He finished 9th at the U.S. Open when he was battling vertigo. He finished 4th at The Open and 12th at WGC Bridgestone. He also won in Canada, won the PGA, and won last week. You would think his stats are off the charts. Well you’re correct. He’s 3rd in DD, 1st in BoB%, 2nd in P4 scoring, 10th in P5 scoring, 9th in GIR, 8th in SG:T2G, and 2nd in SG:P. He has the best stats AND the best form coming into this week. He also has four Top 15 finishes at TPC Boston in the last 5 years including a 2nd, 3rd, and a 7th place finish last year. Needless to say, he is my number 1 pick to win and will be every week until he shows me something different.
Dustin Johnson ($10,800):
DJ is my number 2 pick to win this week. He had a little lull after the U.S. Open but he finished 7th at the PGA and 9th last week at The Barclays. He also has two Top 5 finishes at TPC Boston in the past. He is 1st in DD, 6th in BoB%, 20th in P4 scoring, 5th in P5 scoring, 12th in SG:T2G, and 24th in SG:P. With his distance this course should play easy for him and I expect him, Day, and Stenson to battle for the win this week.
Henrik Stenson ($10,500):
Stenson is a previous winner at TPC Boston and finished 2nd at The Barclays last week. He’s 37th in DD, 27th in BoB%, 13th in P4 scoring, 43rd in P5 scoring, 1st in GIR, 2nd in SG:T2G, and 22nd in SG:P. The best golfers in the world usually are on top at TPC Boston and I expect the same this week. He is my number 3 pick to win.
Bubba Watson ($9800):
Bubba hasn’t played his best golf here in the past and that worries me a bit because he can be fickle mentally if he doesn’t like a course but he showed me something last week at Plainfield, finishing 3rd at a course he has said himself that doesn’t suit him. If he could get out of his own head, he could be on par with the Big 3 (Spieth, Day, and Rory). His stats for the course are exceptional. He’s 2nd in DD, 3rd in BoB%, 15th in P4 scoring, 1st in P5 scoring, 23rd in GIR, and 1st in SG:T2G. His current form is solid and with his $9800 price tag, he is a strong but slightly risky pick this week.
Mid Level Golfers ($7100-$8900)
***I will occasionally reference non Major starts with golfers of this price range and lower. I do this because the layout of Major courses are a lot tougher than most on Tour. Therefore not putting too much emphasis on these starts on week’s where golfers play easy courses is usually a good idea. But if the golfers at this price range have performed well in Majors, it is a definite plus.
Hideki Matsuyama ($8800):
Hideki broke out of his mini slump last week finishing 2nd in total birdies at The Barclays. He is 48th in DD, 12th in BoB%, 4th in P4 scoring, 20th in P5 scoring, 21st in GIR, and 7th in SG:T2G. I think his ownership level will be lower than it should be making him a strong GPP play this week. If he can make a putt or two on these easier greens he could find himself in contention on Monday.
Brooks Koepka ($8700):
Koepka cost A LOT of people money last week but when it comes to DFS you have to have a short memory. I think Plainfield didn’t suit his game and he struggled hitting fairways and putting on those crazy hilly greens in New Jersey. He shouldn’t have a problem this week because TPC Boston suits his game. He’s 7th in DD, 8th in BoB%, 6th in P4 scoring, 4th in P5 scoring, 11th in GIR, 22nd in SG:T2G, and 11th in SG:P. He has the second best stats for the course behind Jason Day. Hopefully his ownership level will be on the low side due to his performance last week, which would help your GPP lineups since I consider him a contender to win.
Matt Kuchar ($8500):
Kuchar will be a cash game staple for me this week. He has made his last six cuts at TPC Boston finishing no worse than 35th, with three Top 15s and a 4th place finish two years ago. Other than DD and GIR, his stats for the course are excellent. He’s 26th in BoB%, 11th in P4 scoring, 7th in P5 scoring, 24th in SG:T2G, and 33rd in SG:P. He is one of the shorter hitters I think that can win this tournament. Expect no worse than a Top 20 finish for him this week.
Webb Simpson ($8100):
Webb professed his love for this course in an interview earlier this week. Makes sense considering he has three Top 18 finishes here in the last four years with a win in 2011. He doesn’t hit the ball that far but he is 51st in BoB%, 3rd in P5 scoring, 52nd in GIR, and 5th in SG:T2G. His nemesis the last couple of years has been his putter but with these flat greens I think he could do very well this week.
Robert Streb ($8000):
Streb finished 9th here last year and there’s no reason he can’t do it again. He has become my go to in cash games because he always makes the cut (11 in a row) and usually finishes in the Top 20 (8/11 times). He’s 38th in DD, 22nd in BoB%, 7th in P4 scoring, 57th in P5 scoring, 16th in GIR, 26th in SG:T2G, and 21st in SG:P. That’s Top 10 in stats for the course this week. Expect him to make the cut and perform well once again.
Justin Thomas ($7900):
JT has been known to start strong and falter during the weekend but he impressed me last week going bogey free on Sunday on a tough course and finishing with his fourth Top 18 in his last five tournaments. His stats for the course are solid other than putting. He’s 15th in DD, 7th in BoB%, 66th in P4 scoring, 2nd in P5 scoring, 31st in GIR, and 18th in SG:T2G. If he can continue to improve during the weekend expect a victory from him soon. Maybe this week.
Tony Finau ($7700):
His putting has been the worst part of his game for the majority of the year, he’s 114th in SG:P, but he has looked exceptionally strong with the flatstick the last couple of weeks at the PGA and The Barclays. At one point at the PGA he was the best putter inside ten feet in the whole field. His improvement with the putter has showed in his results with a 10th place finish at Whistling Straits and a 16th place finish last week. His other stats for the course are exceptional. He’s 8th in DD, 9th in BoB%, 20th in P4 scoring, 34th in P5 scoring, 47th in GIR, and 29th in SG:T2G. If he continues to putt well I think he can contend this week. He is my sleeper pick to win.
Danny Lee ($7600):
Of all the golfers at this price point (Dufner, BHo, Keegan, Lingmerth, and Walker), Lee might not have the most upside but I think he is the safest play out of the bunch. He has made nine of his last ten non Major cuts with six Top 16 finishes in that same time span. His stats for the course are just average but he makes a lot of birdies and can putt very well. He will be on my cash game lineup this week, no doubt.
Jason Bohn ($7300):
In Bohn’s last four non Major starts he has finished 9th, 4th, 12th, and 13th. Solid finishes for a golfer in his price range. Not only is he consistent, he also has great stats for the course. He’s 15th in BoB%, 3rd in P4 scoring, 57th in P5 scoring, 22nd in GIR, 34th in SG:T2G, and 27th in SG:P. He has made all his cuts here and finished 2nd way back in 2005. He’s not the longest hitter but if he can be accurate off the tee another Top 15 finish is not out of the question.
Harris English ($7200):
English has made ten straight cuts in a row and after sweating to make the cut last week, he finished a respectable 30th at The Barclays. His stats for the course are very strong for his price. He’s 31st in DD, 56th in BoB%, 49th in P4 scoring, 20th in P5 scoring, 58th in GIR, and 18th in SG:P. He missed the cut last year but did finish 27th two years ago. I expect him to make the cut and if he can get a high GIR% he could surprise people because of his putter.
Brendan Steele ($7100):
After a strong beginning of the year, Steele has faded some down the stretch. I still like him this week because of his stats and the fact that he has played well at TPC Boston in the past with two Top 20 finishes in the last three years. His stats for the course are some of the best especially for his price tag. He’s 16th in DD, 16th in BoB%, 9th in P4 scoring, 34th in P5 scoring, 26th in GIR, and 15th in SG:T2G. He’s a risky pick because of his current form but I think this course suits him and you will see him in a few of my GPP lineups this week.
Low End Value Picks ($6000-$7000)
John Senden ($7000):
Senden is my Horse for the Course pick this week. In his last 5 starts at TPC Boston he has finished 5th, 12th, 21st, 8th, and 11th. His stats are not good at all but he obviously has a feel for this course and since he has never missed a cut here in nine tries, I don’t expect him to miss the cut this year.
Steven Bowditch ($7000):
Bowditch has had an up an down year but he has made nine of his last ten non Major cuts with five Top 15s in that span. His stats are pretty good for the course. He’s 17th in DD, 47th in BoB%, 46th in P4 scoring, 51st in P5 scoring, and 60th in SG:T2G. He made the cut last year at TPC Boston and I expect him to do it again this year.
Pat Perez ($6800):
I almost picked Wil Wilcox here even with his implosion last Friday but I decided against it because Wil actually tweeted that he hurt his knee earlier this week. Now saying that he might end up winning a la Jason Day and his bad back last week but I decided to go with the safer pick, which is Perez. Perez has made his last twelve non Major cuts with ten Top 26 finishes in that span. Incredible numbers for someone with a $6800 price tag. His stats are average but he makes a lot of birdies and plays par 4s very well. He has three Top 26 finishes here in Boston in the past and I can see another one here this week.
Jim Herman ($6700):
Herman has been on my list of picks a bunch recently with good reason. He has four Top 30 finishes in his last four events including a 13th place finish last week at The Barclays. His stats are average but he is a good putter and his current form has me confident in him this week.
Shawn Stefani ($6700):
Stefani has some of the best stats for golfers under $7000 this week only behind Wil the Thrill. He’s 45th in DD, 18th in BoB%, 33rd in P4 scoring, 20th in P5 scoring, 30th in GIR, and 40th in SG:T2G. He has made seven of his last eight non Major cuts and made the cut here last year. I think he will perform a lot better than his 68th place finish in 2014.
Charles Howell III ($6500):
CH3 bombs his driver, hits a lot of greens, and does well on par 5s. All important needs on this golf course this week. He has made nine of ten cuts at TPC Boston and his last six on Tour this year. At $6500 he is a steal. At his price, I think he is the best cash game play under $7000. I’m not sure if you need golfers under $7000 in cash game lineups this week but if you do, CH3 is your guy.
Carlos Ortiz ($6500):
Ortiz impressed me last week shooting a 62 on Saturday at a difficult golf course. This Tour rookie can go low and although his overall stats for the course are average, he is 33rd in DD and 10th in P5 scoring. I think he can go low again this week especially if he can dominate the easy par 5s at TPC Boston.
Jason Kokrak ($6500):
Kokrak is probably my riskiest pick because he has the worst current form out of all the golfers on the list this week. The reason I am using him is because he has played well at TPC Boston in the past with a 16th place finish last year and his stats for the course are very good. He’s 13th in DD, 35th in BoB%, 10th in P5 scoring, 64th in GIR, and 50th in SG:T2G. Even though he is a risky pick, he has as much upside this week as any other golfer under $7000.
Bryce Molder ($6400):
Molder was my favorite extreme value pick (under $6000) last week and he paid off big with an 11th place finish. His stats for the course aren’t great but he plays par 4s very well and he is one of the best putters on Tour. Great putters have a chance to do well every week and Molder is no different.
Hudson Swafford ($6200):
Swafford hasn’t had the best finishes lately but he still has made eight of his last ten cuts on Tour. His stats for the course are actually third best for golfers $7000 and under this week. He is 32nd in DD, 22nd in BoB%, 34th in P5 scoring, 42nd in GIR, and 25th in SG:P. I expect him to make the cut and looking at his stats, he has the possibility of making some noise this week. If you play PGA DFS on VICTIV, Swafford makes for the best punt play this week at only $5000.
All commentary for the Deutsche Bank Championship Preview is based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.