El Camaleon Golf Club is host to the Mayakoba Golf Classic and this is going to be the strongest field in tournament history this week with 7 of the top 20 players in the world.
The stat that most closely correlates to success is driving accuracy. Only 7 other courses on TOUR have a stronger correlation to success with driving accuracy than El Camaleon.
From this field- Golfers in best course fit model:
- Guido Migliozzi *only has 12 measured rounds*
- Aaron Wise
- Mito Pereira
Viktor Hovland (Salary: DraftKings – $10.9K) gains the most strokes ball striking of anyone with over 50 rounds
Abraham Ancer (Salary: DraftKings – $10.7K) has been quite delightful at this event with the last 4 finishes in the top 25.
Tyrell Hatton (Salary: DraftKings – $10.3K) will probably go the most overlooked with his average ownership in the last 5 events at about 12%. He has high upside, played well at the CJ Cup and, had a recent close call on the Euro Tour.
Aaron Wise (Salary: DraftKings – $9.6K) has been a great tee-to-green player who has figured out the putter. If he can continue this way, he can win golf tournaments. In his last 6 measured events, he has gained strokes putting in 4 of them. He finishes second at this event last year. On the Fantasy tab on the Holy Grail, you can see that Aaron Wise has gained fantasy points on the field in every event dating back to the Wells Fargo Championship (12 events). He has had 7 birdie streaks in his last 3 starts, this is the type of play that scores fantasy points.
Matthew Wolff (Salary: DraftKings – $9.5K) is a very good driver when he’s at his best. He lost a stroke off the tee at Shriner’s even though he had a second place finish. I’ll continue to be cautious with him until I see some more consistent gains with the driver.
Will Zalatoris (Salary: DraftKings – $9.4K) is very good off-the-tee, is generally a very good approach player, but is not a very good putter. In general, Paspalum is a little more forgiving for poor putters, but we don’t have any strokes gained metrics on this specific type of grass.
Mito Pereira (Salary: DraftKings – $8.1K) is the best in this range in terms of strokes gained: total and in terms of the ball-striking metrics. A case could be made to go back to him.
Cameron Tringale (Salary: DraftKings – $8.9K) had another runner-up finish at the ZOZO Championship and has played the Mayakoba Golf Classic in the past to varying levels of success.
Alex Noren (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K) was 10% owned at the CJ cup (twice what he is usually owned at) but lost 4 strokes on approach. Since this is the most he’s lost in all of this year, I’m willing to go back to him.
Russell Henley (Salary: DraftKings – $8.2K) was second to Mito Pereira in the approach play in the last 16 rounds. He leads the 8K range in fairways hit. He has been a below average putter but if he can putt well on Paspalum greens he could be a viable play this week. (Holy Grail Stats Page)
Charley Hoffman (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K) has played 22 rounds at this course but has never made the top 30, this is concerning.
Seamus Power (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K) has gained strokes on approach in all but two events since the Wells Fargo Championship.
Russell Knox (Salary: DraftKings – $7.3K) has played 28 rounds at this course in the last 10 years. He has gained an average of 1.87 strokes per round in 28 rounds. Knox has never missed a cut here, he has never finished worse than 33rd, has a runner-up finish (2015), a third place finish (2016), and a ninth place finish (2017). Knox had a twelfth place finished in Bermuda, which was his best strokes gained week dating back to his seventh place finish at Pebble Beach in February. He was a popular play last week who we should still consider for this week.
Adam Long (Salary: DraftKings – $7K) is a volatile option if that’s what you’re looking for. He has either been cut or finished inside the top 30 for almost the entirety of 2021. He has played here twice and finished second and third in the last 2 years.
Danny Lee (Salary: DraftKings – $6.7K) became the sixth golfer in the last four years to make a birdie streak in all 4 rounds. This is why he finished second and outscored the winner, Lucas Herbert in fantasy points. He probably won’t do this again but it’s interesting to point this out since we are playing a fantasy point game.
Guido Migliozzi (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) popped up on the course fit model as noted previously. Outside of round 4 at Bermuda last week he gained strokes on the field in each of the first 3 rounds. He has a very small sample size of measured rounds on the PGA Tour but he has been a very good ball-striker in those rounds.
Chez Reavie (Salary: DraftKings – $6.6K) is another shorter more accurate driver of the golf ball with historically good success at this course
Brian Gay (Salary: DraftKings – $6.2K) was popular last week that should be reconsidered for this week. His metrics have been horrible but he played well last week. This he is playing a course where he has great history (0 missed cuts, 6 top 30’s, won in 2018, finished fifth in 2011).
Sam Ryder (Salary: DraftKings – $6.5K) has gained at least 20 fantasy points on the field in 6 of his last 8 starts.
Recent Rounds: 20
Birdie Or Better: 30%
3-Putt Avoidance: 15$
- Russell Henley
- Viktor Hovland
- Abraham Ancer
- Joel Dahmen
- Tony Finau
- Hudson Swafford
- Kevin Streelman
- Alex Noren
- Chez Reavie
- Carlos Ortiz
My thoughts on this Model: I’ll need to do some homework on Swafford, Streelman, and Dahmen.
I’m absolutely stoked for this week. Be sure to listen to the Viktor Hovland interview I did.
Don’t forget: Live Chat on my YouTube channel on Wednesday at 12 PM ET.
Best of luck!