Note: I am in the process of moving, so creating videos will be difficult over the next few days. I will create text posts instead with my picks for each night. Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
The Cincinnati Reds really jump off the screen today. Not only are they swinging it well (5th best wOBA since ASB), they face Charlie Morton who owns the 5th worst xFIP on the full slate today. Additionally, Morton is not a strikeout pitcher at all, only racking up 5.6 K/9 in the L30. That’s probably not going to get the job done against the team that’s scored the 3rd most runs in the second half and own the 5th best wOBA at home this season.
One team that just never stops rolling is the San Francisco Giants. They were impressive in roughing up Cole Hamels last night and this is just a team that does everything right in the name of scoring runs. They are playing at the favorable Globe Life Park in Arlington and get Martin Perez who has surrendered 14 ER in 12 innings pitched this season. He’s only recorded 5 K’s in that span which will make it difficult to retired the Giants today.
Well, Jay Bruce ($4500) survived the trade deadline and gets the opportunity to continue the season with the Reds. As mentioned above, that’s a good thing to be in this lineup right now. Not to mention Bruce, specifically, who’s batting .273 in L14 with 3 long balls. Bruce is 8-27 off Morton in his career with a ton of XBHs (3 doubles, 1 triple, 2 HRs).
Anthony Rizzo ($5,000) hasn’t been around long, but in his short career he’s been able to rack up massive numbers of today’s starter, Kyle Lohse. Rizzo is 11-24 (.458) with two doubles and a HR off Lohse in his career. Here’s a guy who homered last night and they usually come in bunches with him. I am buying him today.
I am interesting in the opportunity to buy Victor Martinez ($3700) low today. He’s struggled at the dish recently, but that has pushed his price all the way down to $3700. If there was ever a time for him to bust out, it would be versus today’s opponent Ubaldo Jimenez. V-Mart owns a career .333 avergae off Jimenez in 27 career ABs to go along with four (!!) homers. He gets a big boost from Camden Yards which surrendered 28% more HRs than the average park.
As usual, I like to finished with the guy who has the best BvP numbers I can find. Today, that’s Daniel Murphy ($3100). Murphy is 19-56 (.339) with five doubles and 3 HRs versus Jordan Zimmermann in his career. Here’s a chance to spend low on a guy with great numbers off his opponent.