I am going as chalky as possible today. Without seeing the lineups, I don’t see a ton a value plays on the board. Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
Are the Boston Red Sox every going to stop hitting? Well if they do, it probably won’t be tonight vs. Danny Duffy. The KC starter owns the worst xFIP with the second lowest K/9 on this slate. Bad combination when you’re going up against the hottest offense in baseball and IT’S NOT CLOSE. BOS has a .461 wOBA this week which is 97 points higher than the next best team (SD). 97 points is the same difference between SD at #2 and and the rest of the league! It’s true! BOS is literally lapping the league right now. Check the value sheets, it’s loaded with Red Sox even though their prices are on the rise.
I’ll take another good matchup here and go with the Chicago Cubs. The league’s 4th best wOBA continues to do damage in a big way. No team has homered more in the past week than the Cubs. The battle with Mike Foltynewicz should not scare you. The slate’s 3rd worst xFIP and has surrended 16 runs over his L4 starts.
Shout out to Lorenzo Cain ($5400). The price is legit but it should be. When you are averaging 12.5 DK points a game in your last 10 and you’re in a good matchup, your price better be this high. Cain has gone for double digits in a ridiculous 8 of 9 games. Batting .373 with a ton of XBHs and an opportunity for SBs, he is going to see Wade Miley who is a mediocre LHP. Cain destroys LHP to a career .303 average.
Dee Gordon ($4,800) doing everything he can to be the entire offense for the Marlins. Batting .370 in the L14 with 5 double digit games in his L7. Averaging 11.4 DK pts a game in his L10. No concerns with the park factors here since Gordon is not a power hitter. Plenty of doubles and triples in this park and Gordon is always a SB threat.
Okay here’s a guy who should be on your radar, Chris Gimenez ($2800) When he plays, he’s been great. Games of 23,20,14 and 18 in his last six games that he’s started. You’re going to need to make sure he;s in the lineup but the matchup with Alfredo Simon is certainly a plus matchup and a guy who might be under 1% owned!
AJ Pierzynski ($3,400) wins the BvP crown for the night, albeit in a small sample. He is 7/11 (.636) in his career vs. Jake Arrieta. He hasn’t been scorching lately, but would certainly make for a nice cheap option at the catcher position.