A solid core of eight pitchers who cost $10,000 or more. Lots of studs to sort through. Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
Happy Clayton Kershaw ($14,400) Day! Kershaw in a very similar situation to his last start. He is at a massive price point but is facing a very high strikeout team. No team has struck out more often than the Cubs in the L14 and they are one of the highest K teams all season long. The concern is that they’ve been swinging well, but without the ceiling of strikeouts Kershaw has tonight, he could give up a few runs and still have a massive game. I shouldn’t have to sell you on Kershaw in any situation, it basically just comes down to who you can pair with him.
I am concerned about Matt Harvey ($11,300). This is the time of year where managers do different things with many different goals in mind. They shuffle the rotation so their studs pitch against better teams or they push back starts to limit innings. Harvey appears to be the victim of the latter. Harvey had his last start skipped in what appears to be an effort to keep his innings down coming off of Tommy John surgery. That’s concerning on a fantasy level as well. What if the Mets are up big (or down big, for that matter) in the 6th inning? Do they pull Harvey just to protect him? It’s really hard to say how they will use him in-game moving forward. Throw in the fact that the Red Sox own the best wOBA in the league in L14 and I am staying far away.
NOTE: Salazar has just been scratched with illness. Trevor Bauer starting in his place. Every five days I tell you how good Danny Salazar’s ($10,800) advanced metrics are. He has electric stuff and has been putting it together recently averaging 22.97 DK points per game in the L30. He had a rough go against the Yankees in his last time out, surrendering 4 ER. For comparison, he’d only allowed 3 ER in his previous 4 starts going into that game. He gets the great matchup with the Angels who own the 2nd worst wOBA in the league in L14.
There’s a scenario in which Francisco Liriano ($10,000) has a massive night tonight. I’d be lying to you if I told you that Liriano has been really good lately. In fact, quite the opposite. His xFIP ranks 23rd on this slate and he’s only averaging 12.39 DK points per game in the L30. On the bright side, Liriano has always been a little “boom or bust” and he gets an awesome matchup with the Rockies tonight. We know how much worse the Rockies are away from Coors Field, but you may not realize how much they struggle with left handed pitching. They rank 28th in wOBA vs. LHP this season with league’s 4th highest K% against southpaws. This is a combination that plays right into Liriano’s hands and he’s one of my favorite GPP plays on the day.
Dollar-for-dollar, I am in love with Raisel Iglesias ($7,800). Only one pitcher on this slate has a better xFIP on this slate than Kersahw and that’s Iglesias. Also, his 9.64 K/9 is better than Kershaw and 4th best on this slate. He’s averaging a whopping 24.41 DK points/gm in the L30 which would be 3.1x value on his current price. He is going to face off with the Milwaukee Brewers who are in the middle of the pack in most offensive categories but own a 21% K rate in the L14.
Kevin Gausman ($5,600) owns the top spot on today’s Pitcher Value Charts, barely edging out Iglesias. His 17.73 DK points per game average in the L30 would be worth 3.16x value on his current tag. His strikeouts have been really impressive as of late, tallying 8.82 K/9 in the L30, 6th best on the slate.