Note: I am in the process of moving, so creating videos will be difficult over the next few days. I will create text posts instead with my picks for each night. Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
It’s really hard to find something wrong with Jon Lester ($10,400) right now. He is my favorite pitcher on the board, and frankly, it’s not all that close. Lester has been pure domination over the course of the L30 and he owns the best xFIP and the highest K/9 on the slate over that span. He’s averaging 27.6 DK points over his L6 starts and gets the dream matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. They have a massive 24.3% K rate in the second half which is the third worst in all of baseball.
Lester’s counterpart tonight in Francisco Liriano ($10,800) is also a very appealing option. Liriano is the only other pitcher on the slate with 10+ K/9 in the L30. I think he’s a bit riskier because the Cubs are always liable to have a big night but they strike out at one of the highest clips in baseball, no matter how you slice the season.
Listen, I get the Coors Field effect but the price on Felix Hernandez ($9500) just feels too low. Here’s your opportunity to buy a “matchup proof” ace for the cheapest he will probably be all season. Felix has never faced the Rockies in his career and we have little to go on, but he is still a big time ace who will face a National League team that is prone to striking out. It feels like he’s the ultimate contrarian play.
Jose Quintana ($8400) continues to a solid play at his mid-tier price. Only Jon Lester has a lower xFIP on this slate over the L30. My concern is that the Rays have hit lefties well this season, but they strike out on the higher end of the league and have struggled here in the second half. I think Quintana is worth a flier in a few lineups.
For the second day in a row, there is a lack of a true value pitcher on the slate. I think that Mike Foltynewicz ($5200) is at least worth a look. He’s coming off a very solid outing vs. BAL that ended with him striking out 8 over 6 IP for a 20.7 fantasy point game. It’s not an ideal match-up with SF, but he at least offers a high strikeout upside at a price that is more than reasonable.