Let’s start with the ridiculously expensive Clayton Kershaw ($15,500). Despite this massive price tag, I am buying in all cash games. There is just nobody on the planet who’s better than this guy. His L30 xFIP is by far the best on this slate and his massive 12.46 K/9 in the span is just nutty! The matchup could not be any better. The Rockies own (by far) the worst wOBA in the league and the highest K% in the L7. They also own the 4th worst wOBA and 3rd highest K% vs. LHP this season. You literally have the best pitcher on the planet, in the best situation. Do not overthink this!
The only other starter with 10+ K/9 in the L30 is Carlos Carrasco ($10,800), coming in at a massive 12.67K/9. Despite his great fantasy outputs of late, I am probably staying away from Carrasco tonight. The problem is this matchup with the Royals. They simply do not strike out! Any way you slice the season, they are the lowest K team in the league including the L7 days where their K% is a minuscule 13.4% a full 3.2% lower than the next lowest team!
The first sub-10K pitcher to jump out at me is Garrett Richards ($9,800). He has flashed tremendous upside at times this season and is coming off a 30.5 point outing against the Dodgers. His xFIP is 4th best on this slate and while he doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, he’s going to get a great matchup tonight against the Mariners. The M’s rank 20th in wOBA in the L7 and Safeco Field is one of the best pitcher parks in the league!
Let’s talk value if you decide to start Kershaw. Take a look at Tyler Duffey ($6,800). He tops our Pitcher Value Chart and for good reason. Averaging 18.35 DK points per game in the L30 which would be 2.6x value on his salary today. Has gone for 22.8+ in three of his last five starts. The matchup with the Tigers is a complete crapshoot right now. They are starting to turn it around, but are still in the bottom third of the league in wOBA in the L14. Target Field is a relatively fair park, but surrenders 21% less HRs to LHB than the league average.
If you’re feeling really frisky, look deep at Logan Verrett ($4,100). Verrett is a reliever that will get the opportunity to start this game. He has started one game this season. It was three weeks ago at Coors Field against the Rockies. Despite the poor stadium, Verrett dazzled, going 8 IP surrendering four hits and one run earning his owners 32.4 DK points. The Marlins are certainly a team to target right now as they are 23rd in wOBA in the L14.
Teams are being more cautious with their starters, which is opening up opportunity for value across the board. Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.