There are some big names on the slate, but only one is truly appealing. Then you have one of the most interesting value plays in a long time. Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
I am having some difficulty uploading the video. I am going to try and figure it out, but in the meantime, here’s my notes for the video.
Zack Greinke ($12,400)
Just fine, no concerns, no real feelings about massive upside. I expect an average game against the Reds who are middle of the road in most offensive categories in the L7. His average game has been just under 26 DK points. Will be just fine, highly owned.
Madison Bumgarner ($11,900) is actually my preferred starter of the day. You can save $500 and get a pitcher who will be significantly less owned than Greinke. On a slate with Harvey, Greinke, Sale, it’s actually Mad Bum who’s been the best in the L30. Averaging over 27 DK points a game in his last 5 starts. He’s the ace with the best matchup in the Nats who just can’t seem to get it going. 21st in wOBA in the L7 and a 23% K rate which is amongst the leagues worst in that span.
Chris Sale is a little worrisome. Despite his high K rate, he’s really struggling fantasy wise in the last month. His average game is actually 10th on this slate. The price tag is steep and the matchup isn’t great. While the Cubs have been a high strikeout team all season, they’ve been much better recently. In fact they’ve got their K% down to 20% while boasting the 5th best wOBA and the 6th most runs in the L7.
The middle of the pricing slate gets weak, with nothing that is particularly interesting. Martinez has high upside, but the Marlins have actually been better recently. Nothing too outstanding coming from him or the guys around him.
Someone who should at least be on your radar is Drew Smyly, Has been on and off the DL all year, only making 3 starts. However, he was really good in all three of those outings, averaging 20.6 DK Points. The Rangers are 13th in runs scored this week, so it might be an opportunity to be super contrarian and roll out Smyly. There’s also some precedence here for the Rangers to struggle against a Lefty. They are 22nd in batting average vs. LHP this season with the 8th highest K%.
Let’s talk Ian Kennedy. He has all the makings of the things I love today. He’s been pitching great, 19.63 DK pts a game over his last 5 starts. That’s the best for anyone under 10K and he’s all the way down at $6,500. He’s facing a team that’s really scuffling in the Rockies, the 3rd fewest runs in all of baseball in the L7 while striking out the most. It’s the perfect combination. The only problem is, the Coors Effect. If this game was in SD, Kennedy would probably be my top pitcher dollar for dollar. I am nervous but I am going to have some exposure to Kennedy because everything but the park is too good to pass up.