A short slate with few viable options at the pitcher’s spot. I am paying up for guys in great situations. Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
Two bad starts bookend a really great stretch of baseball for Chris Archer ($12,400). The best xFIP on the slate in the L30 and one of only three pitchers on this slate with over 10K/9 in that period. In a really great matchup with the Houston Astros who have been miserable in the L14. They rank 29th in wOBA and have a 22.1% K rate which is actually lower than their season average. A high upside, dominate pitcher facing a team who’s really struggled to do damage and score runs. Archer is the premier cash game play.
Max Scherzer ($11,400) is certainly the GPP play you want. The 2nd best xFIP on the slate and a ridiculous 12K/9 in the L30 which is the most available to us today. Many will shy away from this game because it’s at Coors Field, but I am willing to take one of the best pitchers in the league at a significant discount. The lowest price Scherzer has had at any point in the L10 is $13,200 and I am pretty sure this is the lowest price he’s been all season. The Rockies have been miserable lately, ranking 26th in wOBA in the L14 and have the highest K% in that span. Here’s a huge strikeout pitcher going against one of the biggest K team’s there is. The Rockies have scored 3 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 9 games.
Very interesting to see that Patrick Corbin ($9,300) got the big boost in price. It’s certainly justified as he has the 3rd best xFIP on this slate and is the 3rd guy with 10+ K/9 in the L30. No team has been worse than the Reds in wOBA in the L14. I am always a big concerned when a pitcher gets a big price increase this quickly. He needs a significant fantasy output to pay for himself. I would only run him out in GPPs, because even though the Reds are struggling now, they have the 8th best wOBA vs. LHP this season and are much more potent at home.
I like Jose Quintana ($8,500) being paired with one of the big studs. Went through a reall great stretch, high upside with a ton of K’s then ran into the Royals and the hot-swinging Cubs. Gets a much softer matchup in LAA tonight who is 25th in wOBA in the L7. Averaging nearly 19 DK pts a game over his L10 which is a tremendous output considering the price and a few stinkers he’s put up.
Josh Tomlin ($5,300) becomes an interesting value play. A very solid 17 DK points in his last start, 6.1 IP, only 5 hits, but gave up two homers late. I hate the ballpark but the Yankees are still a pretty solid matchup for pitchers despite what the public thinks. 28th in wOBA in the L14 and only 12th in the L7 when people have declared the “back”.