A short slate of action on DraftKings today and the pitching options are thin. Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
How good has Madison Bumgarner ($12,800) been? He’s averaging 33.25 DK points per game in his L5 starts, the most of anyone on this slate. Even with his massive salary, he still tops our Pitcher Value Chart. If everyone returns their average game today, Mad Bum’s 2.59x value would be the highest on this slate. That’s unheard of for a guy with a price tag this large. Bumgarner’s 1.83 xFIP in the L30 is by far the best on this slate and his 11.41 K/9 makes him the only guy over 10 in the same span. The concern is that he is facing the scorching Cubs who own the 3rd best wOBA in the L14. However, they are still striking out at a massive 24.7%. So Mad Bum can give up a few runs and still have an awesome outing with his strikeout potential. Throw in the park factors (see below) and I am buying all the Bumgarner stock I can today.
After Bumgarner, Cole, and Greinke this slate gets ugly pretty fast. Here are a few guys that I think are worth a second look:
Carlos Rodon ($9,800) has tremendous upside in his matchup today. Rodon has been a prolific strikeout artist over the last few months, and he’s boasting a 9.4 K/9 over the L30 which is third behind Bumgarner and Gerrit Cole. Very few teams strike out like the Mariners do. They suffer from the fourth largest K rate (24.3%) in the L14 and have the 5th worst rate for the entire season. If Rodon can keep the ball in the park, he has the ability to throw up a big time number.
A surprise name in Marco Estrada ($8,600) is near the top of the Pitcher Value Chart today. He ranks 2nd (discounting Randy Wolf’s one start) behind Madison Bumgarner in value today. Estrada is averaging 19.07 DK points per game in his L5 starts. He will face the pesky Rangers who are always so difficult to predict. They are right in the middle of the league in the L14 in most offensive categories.
How frisky are you feeling? If you answered “extremely frisky”, then take a look at Randy Wolf ($5,500). He is basically the ultimate flier considering this guy has only made five starts in the last three years. However, he was rather impressive against the Rangers just five days ago. Wolf lasted 7 innings, striking out 5 and earning 14.4 DK points. His matchup today is much better with the woeful Angels who rank dead last in wOBA in the L14. This is a team that almost got no-hit last night by Justin Verlander and has scored the third fewest runs in the league in the L14. Wolf gets the benefit of Comerica Park and would not need much to pay for himself.