On a short slate of games, the pricing becomes skewed and almost every pitcher is overpriced. Let’s discuss who to pay up for using DraftKings strategy and scoring.
The safest play on the board is certainly Jake Arrieta ($13,700). He has by far the lowest xFIP and is averaging 33 DK points per game in the L30 days, a full seven points higher than the next pitcher (Derek Holland). This certainly isn’t a great ballpark in Philly, but the Phillies have the 3rd worst wOBA in the L7 and have scored the second fewest runs in that span. On this tiny slate, I am paying up for the best (by far) on the board.
It feels like trying to handicap Felix Hernandez ($11,100) is getting harder and harder. He has gone through some tough stretches this season, but has been dominant in his last two starts. He’s getting a great matchup with the Rangers who own the 2nd worst wOBA in the L7 and no team has scored fewer runs. I am all-in on Felix as a GPP play, as he will get the added benefit of pitching at Safeco today.
His counterpart in Derek Holland ($10,200) tops our Pitcher Value Rankings today. Holland has been outstanding in his return to the Rangers this season, averaging 25.8 DK points per game in his L4 starts. The Mariners strike out at the 9th highest clip in the league vs. LHP and Holland will also benefit from the large dimensions of Safeco Field.
The man with the highest K/9 on the slate is John Lamb ($6,500). Lamb is super high upside thanks for that 10.61 K/9 in the L30. His price is right and his matchup is even better. Despite the Cardinals who continue to find a way to win, their advanced metrics are terrible right now. They rank dead last in wOBA this week with the 3rd highest strikeout rate. Lamb could be in line for a massive strikeout total if he can get into the six inning in this game.