Note: I am in the process of moving, so creating videos will be difficult over the next few days. I will create text posts instead with my picks for each night. Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
Let’s talk Max Scherzer ($13,500) out of the gate. I am pessimisstic on him tonight. I think he’s priced too high to pay for himself. There are six pitchers on this slate with a better xFIP than Scherzer in the L30. He’s been beaten by HRs in that span and would need a massive night to pay for himself. There are better options on the slate for much cheaper.
There’s not too much to say about Chris Sale ($12,000) and Chris Archer ($11,700). Both are stud pitchers with great metrics in okay matchups. The Rays have hit lefties well this season which creates some small concern for Sale. The White Sox have been hot lately which creates some small concern for Archer. I give a slight lean to Archer, but I will be rostering both liberally.
I am licking my chops to get my hands on Carlos Carrasco ($10,200) tonight. He has great metrics, sporting a 2.72 xFIP (3rd best on the slate) and 9K/9 over the L30 days. He faces the struggling Angels who are 27th in wOBA in the L7 and have scored the second fewest runs in that span.
There’s something really exciting about Patrick Corbin’s ($8900) potential this evening. He’s been dealing and returning owners 24 and 30 DK points in his last two starts. He boasts the 5th best xFIP and the 5th best K/9 on this slate in the L30. His matchup with the Nationals is about as good as it gets right now. No team has scored less runs in the L7 with the highest K% in that span. Corbin is probably the top dollar-for-dollar play.
Jimmy Nelson ($8200) is also another guy who’s pitching well under the radar recently. He’s averaging 24.5 DK points over his L4. While the Brewers offense has completely fallen off the map, so don’t expect too much run support, this is a great matchup with the strikeout heavy Padres.
Someone to keep on your radar moving forward is Jon Gray ($5,000). From everything I have seen he is a big, tall pitcher who throws some nasty stuff from right over-the-top. He was a high strikeout pitcher in the minors which should translate nicely in the bigs. I don’t want him in Coors tonight but will certainly be in my sights in his next start.