It’s nearly impossible to fade Clayton Kershaw ($15,700) right now. He’s been his dominant self with the best xFIP and the highest K/9 on the slate in the L30. The price is absurd, but for good reason. He’s going to get the struggling Angels who have been bad in the second half and own the 3rd worst wOBA vs. LHP this season. Additionally, it’s tough to fade him on a full slate since there will probably be plenty of value bats that make their appearance tonight.
I’m fairly high on Matt Harvey ($11,900) tonight despite the fact that the Nationals have finally started to hit well (3rd best wOBA in the L7). He’s been very solid scoring less than 22 DK points only once in his last 6 outings. His advanced metrics are on point as well, sporting a 2.49 xFIP in the L30, which is third best on the slate. I also buy slightly into the narrative that Harvey hates that he will be on an innings limit and will have a bit of a chip on his shoulder tonight. Throw in the fact that this game is at Citi Field and I am high on Harvey.
I really like Cole Hamels tonight ($10,300) and depending on late news, I might like him even more. Let’s start with the fact the Hamels appears to be settling into the AL and with his new ballclub. Two strong outings in a row and will get to pitch at the very friendly confines of Safeco Field. The perfect storm would be if both Nelson Cruz and Franklin Gutierrez are both out of the lineups today. Both are bothered by injury right now and might not play tonight. That would completely change the Mariners lineup and make Hamels much more valuable.
Many think that Raisel Iglesias ($8,700) has a tough matchup tonight, but I am not nearly as convinced. The Pirates are in the bottom third in the league in terms of wOBA in the L7. On the other side, Igelsias has been RIDICULOUS. He owns the 2nd best xFIP and the 2nd highest K/9 on the slate today in the L30. Only Clayton Kershaw is better in both categories. His price has still not caught up to his great play. I will continue to buy.
If you’re digging deep for a value play, try Adam Conley ($4,100). Three straight games of 3x or 4x his salary. His upside is fairly high for a min-priced player because of his 9.25 K/9 in the L30, that’s 5th best on the slate. He will get the Brewers in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the league.
Happy Clayton Kershaw Day! Fade at your own risk! Find other pitchers to pair with him. Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.