The most prolific pitcher on the board is Chris Sale ($13,000). He is expensive, but he owns the slate’s best xFIP and a ridiculous 14.78 K/9 in the L30. The concern is that the Red Sox have been scorching in the L14, but have cooled off a bit in the L7. The game being on the road for the Red Sox is an important note considering that U.S. Cellular is much more pitcher friendly than Fenway Park. It surrenders a significant amount of HRs, but is below the league average in doubles and triples. I feel that Chris Sale is matchup proof and one of the top plays on the board.
**NOTE**: Scherzer has been re-shuffled in the rotation. The Nationals will be using him in their Mets series and starting Gio Gonzalez today.** The man who is my favorite GPP play is going to be Max Scherzer ($11,900). There are so many big names on this slate that a few of them will be overlooked. I think Scherzer could absolutely be that guy tonight. His pricing is smack in the middle of the studs which tends to lead itself to a smaller ownership number. Despite Scherzer’s recent lackluster fantasy performances by his standards (see below), his advanced metrics are still really impressive. His xFIP is 5th best on this slate full of big names and he still owns an 11.25 K/9 in the L30. We’ve talked before that the Padres are swinging well right now, but this feels like Fools Gold. No matter how you split the season, they are a big time strikeout team. Strasburg diced them up for 7Ks in 6IP last night and Scherzer is in a very similar position tonight.
Patrick Corbin ($7,500) sets up as one of the better value players on the board. After a rough outing, Corbin drops from $9,300 to $7,500. Corbin has flashed some serious upside this season (see below) and will get a really nice matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals today. The Cardinals have struggled mightily with a 26.5% K rate in the L7. During the entire season, the Cardinals haven’t solved left handing pitching. They rank 23rd in wOBA vs. LHP this season with the 6th worst K%. Corbin’s 9.00 K/9 could be in for a nice boost tonight.
I feel the need to point out the super value in Tyler Duffey ($4,600) tonight. Three starts this season. He got absolutely rocked by TOR (who doesn’t) but has dazzled in his last two starts going for 27 DK points in each game. A prestine matchup awaits Duffey tonight in the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays rank 26th in wOBA in the L7 and have scored the second fewest runs in that span.
Just to circle back to the top, I think Archer and Price will be just fine, but I don’t have a particular opinion either way. I am most concerned about Felix who has barely paid for himself in any of his last 5 starts and averaging only 7.48 DK points per game in that span. Just too high risk for me today. Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.